Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.168735 3.755267 4.407710 5.185501 6.085619 7.092627 8.302579
2025-07-13 2.442469 3.271524 4.296917 5.649593 7.377191 9.498892 12.289667
2025-07-20 1.887919 2.809264 4.056159 5.845863 8.323395 11.602564 16.235280
2025-07-27 1.531130 2.496054 3.906825 6.081347 9.300094 13.829581 20.609176
2025-08-03 1.225202 2.171235 3.654665 6.091545 9.917933 15.597475 24.531736
2025-08-10 0.957055 1.836178 3.308654 5.875189 10.129730 16.758302 27.662476
2025-08-17 0.743736 1.540066 2.960336 5.577877 10.141548 17.576210 30.316248
2025-08-24 0.610608 1.356274 2.764528 5.493743 10.471159 18.905945 33.886658
2025-08-31 0.509195 1.209241 2.604869 5.439944 10.830726 20.303198 37.685849
2025-09-07 0.456471 1.150134 2.600361 5.669522 11.719341 22.684987 43.375298
2025-09-14 0.393809 1.054203 2.503174 5.698815 12.228630 24.434441 48.105428
2025-09-21 0.340359 0.966691 2.406841 5.711622 12.700331 26.151004 52.919977
2025-09-28 0.290815 0.878684 2.297680 5.689563 13.118205 27.845069 57.928530
2025-10-05 0.278840 0.885715 2.408852 6.170005 14.638903 31.823405 67.651399
2025-10-12 0.251759 0.844986 2.398780 6.373593 15.595375 34.781032 75.663788
2025-10-19 0.230244 0.814644 2.408712 6.624872 16.684993 38.108469 84.694757
2025-10-26 0.200835 0.752540 2.324815 6.634685 17.230320 40.358181 91.737364
2025-11-02 0.166649 0.665087 2.155073 6.400472 17.178192 41.332296 96.225226
2025-11-09 0.135383 0.577138 1.964755 6.078976 16.871788 41.715997 99.488919
2025-11-16 0.115982 0.524685 1.866566 5.987965 17.116069 43.339191 105.550772
2025-11-23 0.100290 0.480850 1.785185 5.929780 17.434075 45.155585 112.182447
2025-11-30 0.093661 0.470770 1.808833 6.177962 18.575423 48.982612 123.614299
2025-12-07 0.083174 0.441155 1.762131 6.209622 19.144126 51.500327 132.249752