Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.907227 4.628803 5.429439 6.381267 7.479460 8.704146 10.170613
2025-06-15 2.888409 3.875737 5.093864 6.695537 8.732881 11.223453 14.482295
2025-06-22 2.153701 3.220368 4.661692 6.723980 9.565877 13.306133 18.554870
2025-06-29 1.661970 2.734985 4.304835 6.719925 10.280104 15.260980 22.661227
2025-07-06 1.313027 2.357198 3.997848 6.688798 10.895104 17.096364 26.765787
2025-07-13 1.173835 2.268038 4.092996 7.248544 12.421958 20.376890 33.266694
2025-07-20 1.007963 2.091740 4.006160 7.486837 13.454789 22.997781 39.018413
2025-07-27 0.883151 1.958820 3.962373 7.775879 14.584364 25.859174 45.391364
2025-08-03 0.746105 1.769710 3.780047 7.783763 15.220404 27.960640 50.709404
2025-08-10 0.605327 1.538930 3.474783 7.511184 15.312062 29.134936 54.564907
2025-08-17 0.483068 1.317739 3.145564 7.134699 15.151455 29.832562 57.634542
2025-08-24 0.406898 1.183956 2.972065 7.037830 15.497648 31.447120 62.427331
2025-08-31 0.341427 1.062430 2.808471 6.948150 15.869896 33.188099 67.689122
2025-09-07 0.314280 1.034827 2.855758 7.324944 17.238560 36.944820 77.016493
2025-09-14 0.272200 0.954523 2.761990 7.369357 17.914625 39.421017 84.126650
2025-09-21 0.234479 0.875991 2.656980 7.369818 18.492461 41.749489 91.135395
2025-09-28 0.201238 0.801164 2.546306 7.337747 18.990378 43.953803 98.067032
2025-10-05 0.196158 0.817215 2.684574 7.946209 21.013310 49.482553 112.081311
2025-10-12 0.178961 0.786777 2.686812 8.205098 22.247143 53.441978 123.168873
2025-10-19 0.165188 0.764582 2.708784 8.518827 23.644179 57.861051 135.517444
2025-10-26 0.144599 0.710062 2.623053 8.527412 24.297254 60.703685 144.744317
2025-11-02 0.119765 0.629561 2.439045 8.231650 24.154670 61.757513 150.214226
2025-11-09 0.096727 0.546988 2.228688 7.822979 23.669603 61.982267 153.882490