Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.897084 5.757348 6.708451 7.835751 9.133103 10.576978 12.303205
2025-07-27 3.705911 4.899268 6.360940 8.272150 10.693164 13.644655 17.500684
2025-08-03 2.816473 4.119616 5.861392 8.334195 11.724088 16.173089 22.411702
2025-08-10 2.127254 3.405323 5.250581 8.064894 12.193424 17.960612 26.540084
2025-08-17 1.618372 2.813839 4.664966 7.675339 12.364054 19.280464 30.108807
2025-08-24 1.306265 2.447043 4.327676 7.564680 12.877474 21.092731 34.530476
2025-08-31 1.076608 2.161900 4.057675 7.494613 13.409374 22.950295 39.176567
2025-09-07 0.952624 2.035035 4.025066 7.800739 14.571343 25.897465 45.812338
2025-09-14 0.816659 1.854671 3.861446 7.841248 15.267068 28.129970 51.475994
2025-09-21 0.703268 1.694141 3.704153 7.861393 15.913755 30.323872 57.260411
2025-09-28 0.608686 1.552369 3.557198 7.873170 16.533989 32.514953 63.222367
2025-10-05 0.587980 1.571047 3.739359 8.560388 18.512535 37.329307 74.283438
2025-10-12 0.532125 1.498839 3.723076 8.850300 19.773031 40.989065 83.668310
2025-10-19 0.485910 1.440959 3.730219 9.194046 21.189737 45.094994 94.290824
2025-10-26 0.424769 1.330551 3.597768 9.210149 21.925166 47.946808 102.771238
2025-11-02 0.354914 1.179002 3.339093 8.896741 21.910116 49.292425 108.410157
2025-11-09 0.291071 1.027327 3.050527 8.464261 21.569881 49.925555 112.656388
2025-11-16 0.250747 0.935312 2.898682 8.340978 21.913495 52.015311 120.061149
2025-11-23 0.218066 0.858507 2.773097 8.263556 22.351521 54.341571 128.150032
2025-11-30 0.203502 0.838313 2.802909 8.597799 23.820212 59.061811 141.744701
2025-12-07 0.181544 0.786203 2.729876 8.641947 24.572843 62.233726 152.198960
2025-12-14 0.161684 0.736043 2.653168 8.663915 25.270531 65.338570 162.747291
2025-12-21 0.144033 0.689080 2.577382 8.676767 25.945057 68.445995 173.542352