Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.850531 4.505418 5.229703 6.089005 7.079522 8.184296 9.508737
2025-10-19 2.849688 3.732954 4.814987 6.232667 8.035332 10.244702 13.151028
2025-10-26 2.179301 3.139405 4.420440 6.242273 8.752034 12.071069 16.773071
2025-11-02 1.671440 2.615746 3.972413 6.042406 9.094740 13.397878 19.882866
2025-11-09 1.289773 2.174516 3.532459 5.737707 9.189766 14.335351 22.516152
2025-11-16 1.053022 1.898136 3.274109 5.635637 9.531894 15.629237 25.784034
2025-11-23 0.880911 1.688764 3.077159 5.582999 9.918634 17.006785 29.311895
2025-11-30 0.792089 1.604614 3.070019 5.835510 10.825022 19.300600 34.556301
2025-12-07 0.687700 1.470004 2.948394 5.860979 11.331073 20.968518 38.921581
2025-12-14 0.595917 1.341282 2.814281 5.837502 11.735296 22.489916 43.180143
2025-12-21 0.523127 1.236821 2.708379 5.847708 12.194651 24.146689 47.841347
2025-12-28 0.507948 1.252748 2.845209 6.356180 13.672614 27.829580 56.613285
2026-01-04 0.463383 1.196758 2.827923 6.554741 14.578555 30.563640 63.954745
2026-01-11 0.423682 1.144962 2.812449 6.757011 15.522897 33.485626 71.997991
2026-01-18 0.376825 1.066294 2.723785 6.784368 16.099188 35.731684 78.929606
2026-01-25 0.322240 0.956351 2.543484 6.574006 16.124918 36.840340 83.636424
2026-02-01 0.269782 0.840436 2.328276 6.246095 15.837385 37.245050 86.889667
2026-02-08 0.235759 0.768298 2.210253 6.136216 16.039107 38.728779 92.618696
2026-02-15 0.208685 0.710352 2.119074 6.079429 16.358453 40.504373 99.168265
2026-02-22 0.197797 0.699287 2.152634 6.353011 17.526037 44.338810 110.757123
2026-03-01 0.179025 0.659106 2.098001 6.380623 18.072519 46.770444 119.324482
2026-03-08 0.160690 0.616181 2.028074 6.355208 18.477578 48.903748 127.393049
2026-03-15 0.145545 0.580622 1.973882 6.366265 18.980643 51.326313 136.390453