Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.700897 4.388741 5.152620 6.061517 7.111051 8.282404 9.686103
2025-06-15 2.715778 3.651271 4.807412 6.330026 8.269803 10.644535 13.756128
2025-06-22 2.017859 3.025792 4.391046 6.348871 9.052525 12.617769 17.630141
2025-06-29 1.553293 2.565388 4.050633 6.341928 9.728364 14.477297 21.548453
2025-07-06 1.224914 2.208552 3.759687 6.312106 10.313796 16.229201 25.475786
2025-07-13 1.093852 2.123941 3.848987 6.842619 11.766766 19.360576 31.698331
2025-07-20 0.937984 1.957332 3.766147 7.067993 12.749689 21.863694 37.208298
2025-07-27 0.821193 1.832511 3.725547 7.344258 13.829787 24.605787 43.330546
2025-08-03 0.692951 1.654622 3.553502 7.352812 14.438676 26.620995 48.442961
2025-08-10 0.561195 1.437226 3.264367 7.093185 14.525250 27.744075 52.144500
2025-08-17 0.447127 1.229489 2.953643 6.736697 14.374570 28.417119 55.103303
2025-08-24 0.375343 1.101833 2.785201 6.635067 14.685599 29.927472 59.643659
2025-08-31 0.314291 0.987368 2.629479 6.546756 15.033452 31.579741 64.670640
2025-09-07 0.289011 0.961244 2.673305 6.902179 16.333440 35.165557 73.611135
2025-09-14 0.250170 0.886585 2.586119 6.947002 16.983462 37.546458 80.462651
2025-09-21 0.215280 0.813272 2.487512 6.948234 17.535929 39.778739 87.204142
2025-09-28 0.184578 0.743495 2.383713 6.918997 18.013289 41.894981 93.878656
2025-10-05 0.179872 0.758465 2.513895 7.495849 19.941847 47.189678 107.353678
2025-10-12 0.163957 0.729933 2.515746 7.740758 21.117181 50.980184 118.013482
2025-10-19 0.151297 0.709435 2.537193 8.040515 22.455444 55.227838 129.923604
2025-10-26 0.132322 0.658624 2.456804 8.049848 23.081910 57.960923 138.823771
2025-11-02 0.109403 0.583369 2.283142 7.768316 22.943694 58.967015 144.082003
2025-11-09 0.088214 0.506428 2.085371 7.381584 22.483510 59.189483 147.631290