Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.324898 5.087987 5.932696 6.935183 8.090469 9.378030 10.919622
2025-08-10 2.920452 3.875314 5.050066 6.593023 8.556584 10.961391 14.117909
2025-08-17 2.062996 3.038102 4.351282 6.229732 8.824655 12.256094 17.104583
2025-08-24 1.580869 2.548462 3.956848 6.122627 9.326688 13.840032 20.611431
2025-08-31 1.255631 2.194923 3.659778 6.059916 9.827778 15.430326 24.274207
2025-09-07 1.079331 2.026134 3.594388 6.308661 10.791309 17.768837 29.263095
2025-09-14 0.905247 1.818814 3.420771 6.339451 11.391944 19.594686 33.643953
2025-09-21 0.766339 1.641808 3.261282 6.356138 11.951031 21.390764 38.140652
2025-09-28 0.653941 1.489470 3.115366 6.364978 12.481788 23.175984 42.778575
2025-10-05 0.624607 1.497382 3.268761 6.942498 14.090148 26.953603 51.160641
2025-10-12 0.562428 1.422049 3.244325 7.169877 15.069480 29.709729 58.001280
2025-10-19 0.509882 1.356794 3.228256 7.407503 16.089070 32.626906 65.385677
2025-10-26 0.442296 1.244519 3.098975 7.404097 16.656654 34.805774 71.711189
2025-11-02 0.367186 1.096643 2.865492 7.143149 16.669677 35.933568 76.182689
2025-11-09 0.299406 0.950604 2.608514 6.786989 16.430991 36.533544 79.681091
2025-11-16 0.256371 0.861129 2.470963 6.683359 16.723906 38.230570 85.514443
2025-11-23 0.221827 0.787099 2.358094 6.619713 17.094780 40.119693 91.904744
2025-11-30 0.205811 0.765409 2.378785 6.890946 18.272651 43.838013 102.437238
2025-12-07 0.182753 0.715094 2.311676 6.924891 18.886167 46.376207 110.659632
2025-12-14 0.162167 0.667399 2.242885 6.943184 19.461990 48.881143 119.020140
2025-12-21 0.143962 0.622911 2.174940 6.952839 20.015999 51.385164 127.586834
2025-12-28 0.144237 0.646481 2.318343 7.578807 22.224790 57.923755 145.768624
2026-01-04 0.134368 0.628828 2.329660 7.825162 23.465207 62.279409 159.282300