Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.478524 2.905179 3.378548 3.942036 4.593871 5.323548 6.201659
2025-11-09 1.693393 2.227690 2.886612 3.756086 4.870134 6.246347 8.071854
2025-11-16 1.262824 1.830421 2.595004 3.693612 5.224032 7.271605 10.208414
2025-11-23 0.988860 1.557969 2.384684 3.661593 5.569984 8.298848 12.474392
2025-11-30 0.844736 1.430540 2.338662 3.830776 6.198022 9.778263 15.561777
2025-12-07 0.706127 1.277464 2.217177 3.850092 6.583656 10.930425 18.299051
2025-12-14 0.593861 1.142063 2.094254 3.835918 6.897686 11.992439 21.012734
2025-12-21 0.508528 1.035187 1.997383 3.842590 7.235228 13.119322 23.956939
2025-12-28 0.478867 1.025121 2.068585 4.154454 8.142826 15.313808 28.981438
2026-01-04 0.427160 0.961140 2.026985 4.246267 8.655482 16.866091 33.043627
2026-01-11 0.385817 0.910121 2.001039 4.361422 9.222458 18.575723 37.583099
2026-01-18 0.342195 0.845508 1.936147 4.385800 9.609473 19.983499 41.702141
2026-01-25 0.290402 0.753712 1.801712 4.250136 9.665468 20.781579 44.786827
2026-02-01 0.241145 0.657905 1.642438 4.035639 9.526361 21.175613 47.121168
2026-02-08 0.208833 0.597196 1.552825 3.963563 9.686559 22.206483 50.899536
2026-02-15 0.183352 0.548687 1.483612 3.927482 9.921278 23.421510 55.211353
2026-02-22 0.172133 0.536501 1.502182 4.107586 10.684850 25.885909 62.546385
2026-03-01 0.154760 0.503094 1.460234 4.127974 11.064930 27.524831 68.199658
2026-03-08 0.138106 0.468119 1.407920 4.112743 11.353795 28.984159 73.600877
2026-03-15 0.124358 0.438978 1.366481 4.119839 11.699957 30.617883 79.595399
2026-03-22 0.123014 0.449182 1.438800 4.452940 12.945188 34.576092 91.636314
2026-03-29 0.114061 0.432317 1.428938 4.550988 13.572388 37.067344 100.320369
2026-04-05 0.106629 0.419021 1.427614 4.673955 14.285026 39.854284 110.046023