Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.308453 5.045971 5.861260 6.827906 7.941243 9.181798 10.667329
2025-09-28 3.084849 4.051772 5.236295 6.787436 8.757746 11.168982 14.334678
2025-10-05 2.569498 3.709169 5.227537 7.381773 10.339889 14.236581 19.731414
2025-10-12 2.108142 3.303365 5.015240 7.615941 11.429795 16.772226 24.764395
2025-10-19 1.775001 2.990514 4.845656 7.836829 12.479015 19.332270 30.111251
2025-10-26 1.483418 2.671505 4.593170 7.863310 13.203562 21.465172 35.048741
2025-11-02 1.210539 2.322678 4.222967 7.624591 13.449241 22.858676 38.973165
2025-11-09 0.974789 1.987998 3.812642 7.239858 13.376885 23.701404 42.068041
2025-11-16 0.821825 1.773462 3.572208 7.102872 13.687581 25.178747 46.331139
2025-11-23 0.705423 1.606077 3.388018 7.033186 14.094139 26.842179 51.059504
2025-11-30 0.648950 1.549979 3.406577 7.345770 15.234992 29.908126 58.558614
2025-12-07 0.571451 1.433133 3.283349 7.356411 15.791358 31.952266 64.381899
2025-12-14 0.502197 1.324068 3.164597 7.370813 16.380870 34.166452 70.845875
2025-12-21 0.441478 1.223272 3.048349 7.375530 16.956078 36.424956 77.654736
2025-12-28 0.432170 1.247946 3.218963 8.035836 18.993208 41.793704 91.131164
2026-01-04 0.397821 1.200940 3.214203 8.295861 20.192734 45.576395 101.766581
2026-01-11 0.366162 1.154461 3.202775 8.537414 21.377973 49.443214 112.937889
2026-01-18 0.327649 1.080389 3.109731 8.566932 22.078740 52.341262 122.331212
2026-01-25 0.281586 0.973694 2.913577 8.308660 22.066982 53.675432 128.468234
2026-02-01 0.236070 0.857587 2.671037 7.891941 21.614440 53.968264 132.322492
2026-02-08 0.206593 0.785384 2.537519 7.743534 21.807397 55.752301 139.697925
2026-02-15 0.183268 0.727973 2.436364 7.668026 22.175592 57.979565 148.294610
2026-02-22 0.174534 0.719328 2.479405 8.006748 23.670697 63.047369 164.012651