Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007647 0.008619 0.009682 0.010935 0.012374 0.013977 0.015906
2024-10-27 0.005938 0.007212 0.008727 0.010675 0.013126 0.016128 0.020115
2024-11-03 0.005117 0.006526 0.008300 0.010717 0.013956 0.018193 0.024232
2024-11-10 0.004690 0.006229 0.008257 0.011159 0.015262 0.020943 0.029555
2024-11-17 0.004159 0.005708 0.007826 0.010983 0.015650 0.022425 0.033248
2024-11-24 0.003798 0.005367 0.007587 0.011019 0.016303 0.024319 0.037769
2024-12-01 0.003429 0.004969 0.007213 0.010795 0.016509 0.025523 0.041327
2024-12-08 0.003232 0.004801 0.007152 0.011026 0.017431 0.027937 0.047198
2024-12-15 0.003004 0.004561 0.006954 0.011010 0.017935 0.029703 0.052182
2024-12-22 0.002705 0.004181 0.006501 0.010527 0.017588 0.029958 0.054432
2024-12-29 0.002527 0.003981 0.006315 0.010467 0.017958 0.031504 0.059319
2025-01-05 0.002482 0.003990 0.006470 0.011003 0.019443 0.035255 0.069114
2025-01-12 0.002264 0.003700 0.006108 0.010606 0.019198 0.035770 0.072508
2025-01-19 0.002090 0.003472 0.005835 0.010348 0.019194 0.036770 0.077148
2025-01-26 0.001981 0.003347 0.005730 0.010389 0.019772 0.039008 0.084910
2025-02-02 0.001938 0.003335 0.005825 0.010815 0.021171 0.043142 0.097828
2025-02-09 0.001816 0.003170 0.005625 0.010646 0.021312 0.044577 0.104487
2025-02-16 0.001731 0.003067 0.005533 0.010681 0.021890 0.047056 0.114239
2025-02-23 0.001623 0.002913 0.005329 0.010464 0.021886 0.048186 0.120654
2025-03-02 0.001575 0.002869 0.005336 0.010687 0.022894 0.051850 0.134690
2025-03-09 0.001504 0.002775 0.005236 0.010672 0.023349 0.054228 0.145593
2025-03-16 0.001391 0.002590 0.004941 0.010205 0.022688 0.053712 0.147899
2025-03-23 0.001328 0.002501 0.004834 0.010147 0.023006 0.055763 0.158429