Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.004040 0.004245 0.004456 0.004689 0.004939 0.005199 0.005491
2025-01-12 0.003680 0.003989 0.004320 0.004701 0.005129 0.005598 0.006153
2025-01-19 0.003343 0.003694 0.004079 0.004536 0.005067 0.005667 0.006402
2025-01-26 0.003189 0.003582 0.004022 0.004558 0.005196 0.005939 0.006879
2025-02-02 0.003126 0.003562 0.004062 0.004683 0.005442 0.006351 0.007538
2025-02-09 0.002976 0.003429 0.003957 0.004626 0.005459 0.006478 0.007843
2025-02-16 0.002870 0.003342 0.003900 0.004618 0.005530 0.006669 0.008232
2025-02-23 0.002765 0.003250 0.003831 0.004589 0.005568 0.006816 0.008567
2025-03-02 0.002709 0.003213 0.003826 0.004637 0.005705 0.007092 0.009086
2025-03-09 0.002618 0.003129 0.003757 0.004600 0.005725 0.007211 0.009392
2025-03-16 0.002532 0.003049 0.003689 0.004558 0.005734 0.007314 0.009676
2025-03-23 0.002438 0.002953 0.003597 0.004480 0.005690 0.007339 0.009847
2025-03-30 0.002351 0.002866 0.003515 0.004414 0.005663 0.007389 0.010064
2025-04-06 0.002300 0.002823 0.003490 0.004426 0.005742 0.007594 0.010526
2025-04-13 0.002189 0.002698 0.003351 0.004274 0.005585 0.007449 0.010440
2025-04-20 0.002150 0.002667 0.003337 0.004294 0.005672 0.007663 0.010924
2025-04-27 0.002149 0.002686 0.003390 0.004409 0.005900 0.008097 0.011790
2025-05-04 0.002087 0.002622 0.003327 0.004356 0.005878 0.008150 0.012033
2025-05-11 0.002045 0.002582 0.003296 0.004349 0.005923 0.008307 0.012457
2025-05-18 0.001998 0.002535 0.003254 0.004322 0.005937 0.008414 0.012803
2025-05-25 0.001978 0.002524 0.003261 0.004367 0.006060 0.008701 0.013480
2025-06-01 0.001933 0.002476 0.003215 0.004332 0.006060 0.008786 0.013801
2025-06-08 0.001888 0.002429 0.003168 0.004294 0.006050 0.008855 0.014096