Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 20.082220 21.761589 23.569218 25.668700 28.051653 30.686046 33.837746
2025-09-28 17.950206 20.377864 23.179019 26.690192 31.031819 36.304402 43.320656
2025-10-05 15.934741 18.696732 22.047978 26.497070 32.382577 40.109051 51.400674
2025-10-12 14.545551 17.516315 21.268824 26.492677 33.814215 44.118800 60.569633
2025-10-19 13.589968 16.729844 20.835193 26.794132 35.596495 48.827752 71.892891
2025-10-26 12.670365 15.872911 20.177827 26.644644 36.630537 52.529725 82.577010
2025-11-02 11.866624 15.085275 19.514313 26.367151 37.371187 55.832530 93.509089
2025-11-09 11.246410 14.490441 19.052235 26.309723 38.410581 59.792615 107.048118
2025-11-16 10.666950 13.903078 18.539674 26.098259 39.132371 63.287651 120.918548
2025-11-23 10.149075 13.364185 18.048363 25.855196 39.742029 66.666143 135.955122
2025-11-30 9.689694 12.878270 17.595217 25.618815 40.313696 70.070200 152.702478
2025-12-07 9.308012 12.482116 17.247572 25.517536 41.110234 74.117419 173.530381
2025-12-14 8.897298 12.025566 16.783987 25.190788 41.465224 77.366441 194.382516
2025-12-21 8.782947 12.013331 17.025952 26.129964 44.501405 87.833028 249.656338
2025-12-28 8.449762 11.642138 16.656871 25.922926 45.121107 92.431115 286.744022
2026-01-04 8.180227 11.355661 16.407427 25.911416 46.161342 98.500127 338.374457
2026-01-11 7.984994 11.175650 16.322610 26.200566 47.920761 107.246734 418.759135
2026-01-18 7.729323 10.884956 16.029439 26.054878 48.647634 113.150029 493.908102
2026-01-25 7.471360 10.578215 15.689881 25.785897 49.039499 118.154544 575.184049
2026-02-01 7.264699 10.345819 15.466252 25.730171 49.953099 125.337465 698.281670
2026-02-08 7.048357 10.087751 15.182349 25.525388 50.459210 131.312486 834.158882
2026-02-15 6.840766 9.835557 14.895310 25.290014 50.854253 137.095524 998.924295
2026-02-22 6.646363 9.597682 14.621757 25.061091 51.237448 143.072350 1208.932286