Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 20.505889 22.248385 24.126367 26.310456 28.792921 31.541294 34.834378
2025-10-19 17.859914 20.263536 23.032005 26.494848 30.765681 35.936449 42.791440
2025-10-26 15.802503 18.542955 21.864503 26.267796 32.081257 39.693310 50.778141
2025-11-02 14.261568 17.185362 20.876982 26.012020 33.199539 43.294719 59.359141
2025-11-09 13.140978 16.190994 20.177742 25.960425 34.490690 47.282858 69.492640
2025-11-16 12.196389 15.306148 19.490539 25.781377 35.500060 50.971349 80.170485
2025-11-23 11.409973 14.546468 18.873884 25.588540 36.404110 54.608226 91.886786
2025-11-30 10.739805 13.881006 18.311249 25.382141 37.214001 58.200979 104.777459
2025-12-07 10.202638 13.354580 17.891792 25.329047 38.240126 62.365937 120.580631
2025-12-14 9.697866 12.833474 17.428253 25.139353 38.976706 66.111387 137.121921
2025-12-21 9.494479 12.735512 17.591323 25.987037 41.711960 74.596583 171.073375
2025-12-28 9.062826 12.264176 17.130853 25.713906 42.263753 78.466213 194.044155
2026-01-04 8.708589 11.896687 16.819825 25.692276 43.360508 84.041116 227.771245
2026-01-11 8.436899 11.639954 16.668454 25.941992 45.066259 91.695063 277.548476
2026-01-18 8.105458 11.269662 16.302214 25.755445 45.811947 97.111852 324.760158
2026-01-25 7.793287 10.912212 15.932034 25.522651 46.419208 102.384186 379.501421
2026-02-01 7.538725 10.632877 15.674624 25.479947 47.457853 109.353590 457.664243
2026-02-08 7.282390 10.336933 15.368365 25.309196 48.166060 115.599136 546.423506
2026-02-15 7.042268 10.055423 15.069123 25.123102 48.809319 121.940475 655.896713
2026-02-22 6.816659 9.787054 14.776529 24.922886 49.388217 128.361365 792.204352
2026-03-01 6.627999 9.571369 14.564911 24.871546 50.352153 136.743816 997.004932
2026-03-08 6.432285 9.334986 14.301965 24.686958 50.932072 143.950655 1239.373434
2026-03-15 6.386361 9.349667 14.497826 25.512566 54.483142 166.090352 2057.724757