Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 19.792680 21.452006 23.238596 25.314304 27.671103 30.277563 33.397136
2025-09-28 17.711395 20.097622 22.849133 26.295498 30.553330 35.719157 42.585614
2025-10-05 15.709237 18.428533 21.727060 26.104766 31.893656 39.489951 50.585369
2025-10-12 14.312009 17.240902 20.942576 26.099110 33.332341 43.523194 59.814631
2025-10-19 13.344610 16.442550 20.498935 26.397314 35.130171 48.295503 71.338708
2025-10-26 12.419875 15.580919 19.839691 26.255437 36.199626 52.111099 82.397695
2025-11-02 11.612277 14.788552 19.172110 25.980048 36.967181 55.527238 93.800343
2025-11-09 10.989235 14.189350 18.705161 25.922235 38.031051 59.615598 107.985037
2025-11-16 10.409635 13.600369 18.190086 25.711462 38.776620 63.246423 122.656077
2025-11-23 9.892676 13.060748 17.696498 25.467594 39.405595 66.761775 138.667946
2025-11-30 9.435514 12.575688 17.242809 25.232015 39.998484 70.318418 156.655504
2025-12-07 9.052534 12.174960 16.885791 25.115782 40.786525 74.470811 178.907156
2025-12-14 8.645573 11.720685 16.422106 24.786823 41.150821 77.859009 201.541075
2025-12-21 8.527302 11.700324 16.650232 25.707871 44.196139 88.637053 261.481466
2025-12-28 8.200397 11.335457 16.287603 25.510469 44.854596 93.524702 303.057892
2026-01-04 7.934418 11.051449 16.038885 25.499507 45.920790 99.911738 361.274944
2026-01-11 7.740814 10.871343 15.951403 25.785379 47.710224 109.103832 453.143702
2026-01-18 7.490263 10.585755 15.663218 25.647239 48.477711 115.437599 541.656871
2026-01-25 7.236900 10.283250 15.326806 25.380631 48.891824 120.805064 638.943483
2026-02-01 7.033509 10.053318 15.103969 25.324563 49.830806 128.473954 788.826602
2026-02-08 6.821130 9.798793 14.822358 25.120732 50.357981 134.901515 958.828955
2026-02-15 6.617327 9.549935 14.537214 24.884922 50.767869 141.129346 1170.232323
2026-02-22 6.426825 9.315732 14.266297 24.657114 51.169862 147.603847 1448.375892