Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 29.100736 32.342757 36.047000 40.652362 46.312509 53.165896 62.296913
2025-06-15 24.247023 28.277085 33.288658 40.182274 49.784436 63.345893 85.437148
2025-06-22 21.166874 25.538110 31.319906 39.924443 53.247451 74.993751 119.121844
2025-06-29 18.782750 23.207137 29.323839 38.983290 55.271045 85.495068 162.530302
2025-07-06 17.774797 22.526553 29.420282 41.069458 62.862828 110.958274 290.266061
2025-07-13 16.398372 21.111774 28.161071 40.614909 65.666403 128.914065 475.696593
2025-07-20 15.428555 20.159311 27.442791 40.885960 70.035920 155.857704 1035.503694
2025-07-27 14.635909 19.375054 26.863183 41.252667 74.809640 191.472478 4555.659881
2025-08-03 13.881301 18.567963 26.129238 41.150854 78.456553 230.782655 NaN
2025-08-10 13.153524 17.735419 25.248136 40.571557 80.649549 270.263895 NaN
2025-08-17 12.615261 17.158849 24.742844 40.676975 84.954608 339.246458 NaN
2025-08-24 12.082924 16.549136 24.111164 40.387834 87.999541 417.863711 NaN
2025-08-31 11.558768 15.924462 23.406777 39.852463 90.220729 512.933409 NaN
2025-09-07 11.093125 15.367542 22.778183 39.396632 92.662665 649.186839 NaN
2025-09-14 10.694086 14.897250 22.269686 39.146661 95.913468 877.551045 NaN
2025-09-21 10.254637 14.332771 21.536280 38.235103 96.125580 1074.399614 NaN
2025-09-28 10.166059 14.361395 21.941585 40.254620 110.697532 3601.329364 NaN
2025-10-05 9.832140 13.943800 21.434831 39.814728 113.471066 8403.642681 NaN
2025-10-12 9.590469 13.674446 21.201557 40.077014 120.375994 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.373654 13.436713 21.012006 40.431817 128.423231 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.131566 13.141258 20.681168 40.333310 133.875030 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.866287 12.791935 20.214774 39.772744 136.006797 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.671607 12.561411 19.981392 39.874765 143.277975 NaN NaN