Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.887360 20.436065 22.100191 24.029527 26.215148 28.626546 31.505275
2025-09-07 16.224806 18.310704 20.698097 23.663903 27.293994 31.652815 37.377930
2025-09-14 14.420708 16.818263 19.703509 23.498262 28.463400 34.899590 44.162772
2025-09-21 13.016800 15.581327 18.794610 23.225957 29.366957 37.894426 51.279037
2025-09-28 12.322790 15.117488 18.757042 24.015997 31.742921 43.284982 63.248324
2025-10-05 11.422320 14.271692 18.092095 23.815111 32.625010 46.604324 72.921952
2025-10-12 10.708922 13.596709 17.569692 23.718354 33.601177 50.217856 84.287742
2025-10-19 10.207898 13.160504 17.324732 23.978783 35.148830 55.096002 100.002362
2025-10-26 9.654719 12.599841 16.837026 23.786651 35.883671 58.636962 114.391903
2025-11-02 9.162754 12.087212 16.369866 23.561545 36.505032 62.077618 130.252315
2025-11-09 8.782084 11.708263 16.069204 23.567511 37.531620 66.585246 151.611525
2025-11-16 8.393445 11.290006 15.671209 23.358306 38.106349 70.246022 172.951354
2025-11-23 8.036131 10.904934 15.308626 23.194335 38.791952 74.481796 200.224341
2025-11-30 7.705048 10.541163 14.954829 23.011534 39.419400 78.807416 232.411629
2025-12-07 7.423033 10.237146 14.676489 22.937285 40.268215 84.012637 274.995451
2025-12-14 7.137549 9.911533 14.339220 22.717635 40.764452 88.444562 320.691460
2025-12-21 7.050939 9.896052 14.520778 23.505846 43.693937 101.227181 442.801116
2025-12-28 6.807834 9.614176 14.224737 23.323152 44.293124 106.947071 533.019870
2026-01-04 6.597637 9.375272 13.987825 23.235464 45.115558 113.840682 660.072721
2026-01-11 6.454386 9.239027 13.922302 23.491404 46.865830 125.040716 897.221086
2026-01-18 6.255730 9.000809 13.659107 23.306592 47.422599 131.943837 1132.742945
2026-01-25 6.065131 8.767725 13.391829 23.088919 47.858685 138.667264 1443.296867
2026-02-01 5.916954 8.599928 13.234277 23.095145 48.933275 148.967208 2023.848254