Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.499453 36.378576 40.861681 46.508807 53.557365 62.246374 74.077801
2025-07-13 26.847102 31.614871 37.639611 46.092180 58.169411 75.799275 105.885537
2025-07-20 23.477176 28.683945 35.719972 46.488123 63.823167 93.753937 160.459134
2025-07-27 21.125536 26.546359 34.266919 46.966503 69.720380 116.249126 260.627877
2025-08-03 19.227429 24.675942 32.754778 46.835661 74.494771 141.055645 452.774179
2025-08-10 17.637222 22.998670 31.198215 46.164464 77.938014 167.057980 881.587355
2025-08-17 16.506186 21.845944 30.254743 46.310320 83.237449 206.813001 3086.960567
2025-08-24 15.485166 20.735986 29.200031 45.970387 87.304230 251.562752 NaN
2025-08-31 14.575162 19.702889 28.127485 45.343993 90.420320 302.465980 NaN
2025-09-07 13.811180 18.829805 27.219064 44.862208 93.830870 370.691672 NaN
2025-09-14 13.178473 18.113506 26.501242 44.643748 98.084554 472.757516 NaN
2025-09-21 12.510999 17.287818 25.496225 43.588855 99.131532 561.137013 NaN
2025-09-28 12.320550 17.249237 25.952847 46.080058 115.105046 1154.490941 NaN
2025-10-05 11.802315 16.615673 25.215376 45.524803 118.840061 1745.883362 NaN
2025-10-12 11.422883 16.194590 24.847214 45.844299 127.060985 4024.859738 NaN
2025-10-19 11.087126 15.825763 24.543765 46.279326 136.641913 27828.264735 NaN
2025-10-26 10.725789 15.388324 24.060717 46.136472 143.390792 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.347830 14.899462 23.431317 45.474624 146.847565 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 10.066674 14.568124 23.098799 45.613674 155.982120 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.767495 14.187865 22.632971 45.280555 161.960950 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.467237 13.790830 22.102412 44.668731 165.635648 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.197587 13.437248 21.639818 44.198288 170.374472 NaN NaN
2025-12-07 8.964078 13.139363 21.276142 43.984945 177.538040 NaN NaN