Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 28.862571 32.043797 35.671886 40.173032 45.691268 52.353415 61.198384
2025-06-15 24.093299 28.050159 32.955802 39.678418 48.997065 62.075534 83.193030
2025-06-22 21.052636 25.361434 31.044664 39.471431 52.452491 73.485409 115.655856
2025-06-29 18.703569 23.088306 29.139912 38.674389 54.696336 84.267520 158.864738
2025-07-06 17.662758 22.368906 29.187377 40.687361 62.136425 109.219025 282.418116
2025-07-13 16.269524 20.936838 27.911414 40.218109 64.922989 127.049031 463.304211
2025-07-20 15.283747 19.965221 27.169440 40.456803 69.232874 153.726927 1008.103761
2025-07-27 14.481834 19.169877 26.576423 40.806668 73.981961 189.233787 4462.820188
2025-08-03 13.713718 18.343112 25.811532 40.647279 77.485083 227.835957 NaN
2025-08-10 13.002721 17.538814 24.982350 40.184630 80.051126 270.176825 NaN
2025-08-17 12.467656 16.968082 24.489241 40.324010 84.516456 342.145355 NaN
2025-08-24 11.936343 16.360057 23.861309 40.048499 87.662154 424.851082 NaN
2025-08-31 11.423160 15.755048 23.196633 39.618774 90.370963 534.120161 NaN
2025-09-07 10.959025 15.201668 22.577521 39.198531 93.075354 690.731821 NaN
2025-09-14 10.566378 14.743207 22.094582 39.026774 96.821137 972.770132 NaN
2025-09-21 10.141766 14.204775 21.413550 38.259296 97.818603 1268.548850 NaN
2025-09-28 10.042135 14.215931 21.790984 40.244303 112.796771 5380.425279 NaN
2025-10-05 9.705051 13.792677 21.273883 39.787312 115.717926 19215.532731 NaN
2025-10-12 9.458657 13.514979 21.025353 40.023764 122.861654 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.239008 13.272048 20.826481 40.368456 131.306647 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.991347 12.965897 20.473175 40.212355 136.717459 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.735460 12.632851 20.040380 39.758030 139.927530 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.542848 12.405566 19.814185 39.895099 148.053391 NaN NaN