Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.333030 41.150479 46.848100 54.224740 63.747242 75.974678 93.511683
2025-05-04 30.078896 36.014753 43.776936 55.164004 72.461286 99.964660 153.553871
2025-05-11 25.879435 32.189444 41.052466 55.371930 80.391694 129.657746 271.832365
2025-05-18 22.740471 29.048421 38.376082 54.601323 86.476109 163.695083 540.424614
2025-05-25 20.658898 26.986840 36.767044 54.954565 95.034716 218.087147 1888.805677
2025-06-01 18.915499 25.126976 35.056398 54.529812 101.885633 286.634363 NaN
2025-06-08 17.490164 23.546441 33.495854 53.898452 108.085084 380.799568 NaN
2025-06-15 16.312385 22.205919 32.112686 53.227072 114.026072 519.707102 NaN
2025-06-22 15.379538 21.153039 31.069476 53.006272 121.609723 778.399501 NaN
2025-06-29 14.464350 20.036376 29.751510 51.820690 125.240919 1120.427477 NaN
2025-07-06 14.161080 19.909186 30.253385 55.144151 150.790835 5853.461944 NaN
2025-07-13 13.475734 19.062258 29.249700 54.379280 157.625475 78766.961815 NaN
2025-07-20 12.954037 18.471254 28.708654 54.814909 172.740173 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.508787 17.979692 28.311038 55.579175 192.426730 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.052268 17.432646 27.735194 55.694513 209.411352 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.566937 16.799666 26.911708 54.870593 218.841043 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.207836 16.372851 26.484539 55.203816 241.079786 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.825779 15.878877 25.862026 54.764691 256.340494 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.461031 15.395586 25.218982 54.123413 269.548650 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.121584 14.940928 24.600735 53.444775 282.422509 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.834470 14.569281 24.137550 53.221190 303.418306 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.509799 14.110458 23.441088 52.027075 307.251212 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.460456 14.171849 23.939205 55.372625 418.200109 NaN NaN