Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.616715 23.486639 25.504691 27.854956 30.530211 33.496448 37.056130
2025-11-09 18.640294 21.188556 24.128498 27.812109 32.363365 37.883679 45.215942
2025-11-16 16.479751 19.380680 22.903379 27.582382 33.772273 41.893502 53.743842
2025-11-23 14.861702 17.950373 21.857237 27.301468 34.935320 45.674909 62.788809
2025-11-30 13.613430 16.803843 20.977492 27.034448 35.969959 49.361024 72.565773
2025-12-07 12.651802 15.908902 20.295174 26.892553 37.083332 53.287254 83.775231
2025-12-14 11.802758 15.072105 19.583536 26.580443 37.833531 56.712331 95.114161
2025-12-21 11.454325 14.883952 19.749714 27.569373 40.763722 64.406397 117.593540
2025-12-28 10.844916 14.268126 19.222708 27.395183 41.689589 68.642696 134.457978
2026-01-04 10.347813 13.773318 18.825432 27.369028 42.845944 73.559622 155.307912
2026-01-11 9.989798 13.454238 18.662773 27.700824 44.690511 80.331191 185.012903
2026-01-18 9.566543 13.006125 18.257806 27.564365 45.605083 85.290022 212.657360
2026-01-25 9.134221 12.524432 17.773852 27.257762 46.177513 89.730189 242.541935
2026-02-01 8.786146 12.152775 17.441661 27.191285 47.241927 95.735645 284.191739
2026-02-08 8.436171 11.757583 17.041830 26.957741 47.914636 100.958718 328.651884
2026-02-15 8.107365 11.377602 16.640895 26.680946 48.449328 106.003522 379.245072
2026-02-22 7.807397 11.027843 16.267741 26.420382 48.981657 111.255088 439.696588
2026-03-01 7.550387 10.734308 15.971866 26.282102 49.781817 117.656188 520.436250
2026-03-08 7.285594 10.415002 15.611094 25.979673 50.138501 122.788405 604.816181
2026-03-15 7.231451 10.439748 15.856743 26.936110 53.822114 141.131734 872.859694
2026-03-22 7.014623 10.181405 15.577792 26.767550 54.553505 148.935057 1069.630178
2026-03-29 6.831559 9.971718 15.374750 26.742210 55.674387 158.930469 1368.218008
2026-04-05 6.706077 9.854042 15.333118 27.063071 57.827521 174.645355 1945.415475