Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 97621.960793 102891.009935 108154.673735 113804.005578 119692.034674 125644.358694 132112.891227
2025-08-17 88453.133672 96482.702394 104724.322073 113805.208159 123519.135765 133587.843787 144802.298612
2025-08-24 82796.213000 92791.713907 103271.561088 115056.491991 127917.378784 141503.983229 156919.721683
2025-08-31 77525.126487 88908.657424 101060.431161 114961.395071 130385.880773 146938.664406 166007.308930
2025-09-07 74265.764936 86881.017818 100557.520968 116432.940362 134298.315384 153725.703430 176392.032835
2025-09-14 71218.468417 84833.138239 99801.008500 117405.036454 137466.658218 159539.935935 185583.896885
2025-09-21 68055.446431 82444.455197 98471.101661 117551.028122 139548.200834 164012.885636 193175.338172
2025-09-28 65262.361139 80318.301467 97292.804354 117730.448203 141546.434790 168296.937877 200483.888625
2025-10-05 63726.982304 79557.727206 97602.723345 119550.683358 145372.646302 174632.612322 210132.434428
2025-10-12 62159.561254 78666.941459 97680.838996 121030.572946 148751.006011 180423.032945 219149.112296
2025-10-19 60349.745738 77397.370462 97233.700201 121820.704405 151264.886159 185174.174547 226944.848686
2025-10-26 58313.931307 75767.941137 96279.877763 121935.648084 152920.322103 188878.594010 233491.735040
2025-11-02 56517.434764 74386.103389 95591.994547 122352.684745 154939.824922 193041.634402 240644.324229
2025-11-09 54672.136725 72879.084093 94695.917126 122468.903567 156562.904363 196718.002635 247226.105280
2025-11-16 53566.783357 72250.262864 94838.097638 123823.909064 159670.570013 202171.248779 255959.085851
2025-11-23 51822.175314 70751.326382 93846.864209 123729.002254 160964.459231 205411.753128 262015.668330
2025-11-30 50973.124821 70358.987616 94207.702401 125292.866329 164289.927486 211121.850231 271094.662409
2025-12-07 49927.753750 69673.957217 94166.379478 126325.235401 166939.806261 216005.530152 279183.186390
2025-12-14 48539.068410 68496.664504 93459.357621 126480.296724 168466.646649 219495.320191 285562.852435
2025-12-21 47237.084803 67391.376806 92806.865400 126670.786445 170012.293192 222994.913798 291957.069238
2025-12-28 46761.490384 67359.292181 93521.706182 128602.978799 173761.158659 229245.441550 301798.380156
2026-01-04 46157.114259 67131.989561 93965.146868 130173.654036 177048.899231 234932.570409 310968.987244
2026-01-11 45274.914611 66502.412371 93858.901309 131012.171423 179389.948388 239434.122159 318673.888289