Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 94210.126084 99333.318793 104453.158727 109950.117906 115681.419309 121477.359117 127778.173136
2025-09-07 86237.214331 94109.930067 102194.392405 111106.268965 120643.855256 130534.270722 141555.122272
2025-09-14 80428.033958 90196.884177 100445.781611 111978.346631 124571.819822 137884.101029 152997.785480
2025-09-21 75449.279133 86589.251211 98489.574997 112112.438271 127238.892122 143482.795354 162208.108419
2025-09-28 71393.960043 83615.964451 96880.338328 112293.302631 129655.948356 148555.101342 170626.267320
2025-10-05 69011.303344 82284.773568 96891.766278 114087.592171 133702.323583 155303.250843 180812.370447
2025-10-12 66767.667672 80934.893517 96725.850271 115538.468968 137242.816953 161398.444888 190212.218203
2025-10-19 64389.107233 79278.843450 96076.021961 116312.277743 139907.931295 166426.815715 198354.284714
2025-10-26 61889.109553 77347.823387 94988.408873 116467.625343 141764.964316 170459.635074 205308.393257
2025-11-02 59790.609120 75786.653252 94238.942618 116931.164750 143908.287838 174771.486487 212556.749876
2025-11-09 57605.769184 74024.209987 93163.202744 116926.791933 145432.406232 178312.412410 218876.727198
2025-11-16 56229.263548 73175.394779 93121.127398 118105.357062 148322.167075 183436.824817 227060.651298
2025-11-23 54195.365364 71468.368467 92004.684135 117965.127040 149630.532711 186712.758495 233111.907293
2025-11-30 53127.297823 70915.432233 92259.979625 119467.973767 152912.014322 192350.586308 242017.666562
2025-12-07 51875.624244 70080.802298 92125.270470 120456.612242 155545.490559 197205.721277 250001.320569
2025-12-14 50297.580465 68775.272864 91355.025175 120613.251585 157124.106961 200766.336662 256419.285570
2025-12-21 48830.298968 67559.216475 90649.885253 120808.486708 158717.272842 204325.565048 262833.958376
2025-12-28 48242.224802 67449.978265 91318.755590 122713.876288 162431.275979 210489.824423 272466.160557
2026-01-04 47525.108021 67142.721691 91712.095611 124253.931421 165682.958934 216094.850924 281441.042405
2026-01-11 46528.083234 66432.846141 91560.105423 125075.166428 168015.622778 220562.204333 289027.224511
2026-01-18 45295.343853 65371.812325 90920.366608 125240.029090 169494.465762 223957.034704 295286.149450
2026-01-25 44260.011337 64542.379557 90553.103871 125731.922520 171373.125103 227846.672384 302173.721177
2026-02-01 43065.382127 63462.786596 89826.218486 125727.282783 172593.450163 230897.753894 308012.363665