Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 34.124221 36.790363 39.690189 43.101688 47.036034 51.469494 56.899319
2025-06-15 30.966358 34.672964 38.981307 44.448179 51.337433 59.935010 71.835780
2025-06-22 28.449486 32.588288 37.599849 44.277712 53.218705 65.240277 83.578235
2025-06-29 26.349866 30.672274 36.061949 43.508570 53.955474 68.875926 93.634897
2025-07-06 24.478309 28.828248 34.370380 42.239217 53.685563 70.849613 101.456637
2025-07-13 23.866210 28.514397 34.597549 43.539872 57.181682 79.049639 122.367564
2025-07-20 23.201709 28.058065 34.560517 44.413416 60.103135 86.890197 145.958465
2025-07-27 22.525318 27.523364 34.348790 44.971198 62.558023 94.433934 172.896305
2025-08-03 21.686340 26.704262 33.659566 44.708596 63.571435 99.474742 196.851164
2025-08-10 20.767767 25.718985 32.657686 43.851014 63.412679 102.108330 215.958082
2025-08-17 19.926780 24.798722 31.691617 42.961582 63.071236 104.273936 235.421596
2025-08-24 19.237311 24.059830 30.949209 42.370208 63.196684 107.504708 261.737864
2025-08-31 18.434938 23.142447 29.916827 41.265927 62.310832 108.434703 281.492596
2025-09-07 18.273238 23.143927 30.276779 42.535238 66.228982 122.282592 382.714177
2025-09-14 17.788859 22.647033 29.834774 42.376307 67.236793 128.980030 464.080486
2025-09-21 17.215132 21.993131 29.111493 41.661527 66.978936 132.082266 531.679745
2025-09-28 16.576701 21.219540 28.163981 40.480509 65.580639 131.465518 568.770511
2025-10-05 16.492573 21.270686 28.525744 41.690629 69.605902 149.241823 916.293193
2025-10-12 16.327326 21.189835 28.667007 42.502378 72.878371 166.494981 1607.552062
2025-10-19 16.112412 21.022702 28.655565 43.020289 75.548563 183.320257 3388.990240
2025-10-26 15.766837 20.640346 28.267612 42.776498 76.292090 192.871815 7387.650363
2025-11-02 15.338831 20.116246 27.620716 41.979851 75.516333 195.434295 14910.613766
2025-11-09 14.926218 19.604811 26.976905 41.152810 74.573125 196.974062 45407.916899