Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 34.205199 36.889727 39.811209 43.250346 47.219394 51.695491 57.182497
2025-06-15 31.006256 34.716771 39.029480 44.501625 51.397124 60.001899 71.911605
2025-06-22 28.533971 32.666306 37.664851 44.316969 53.209273 65.141275 83.293081
2025-06-29 26.444082 30.754706 36.120979 43.520244 53.873176 68.607682 92.935376
2025-07-06 24.577082 28.912818 34.425648 42.232617 53.549465 70.438718 100.339664
2025-07-13 23.998551 28.639824 34.700967 43.586043 57.087865 78.611014 120.859749
2025-07-20 23.344146 28.195267 34.675460 44.463757 59.980357 86.293121 143.628091
2025-07-27 22.706349 27.713511 34.536789 45.124877 62.579521 94.003431 170.366962
2025-08-03 21.883601 26.918335 33.882604 44.914341 63.666803 99.112287 193.890109
2025-08-10 20.974141 25.947982 32.904620 44.095791 63.570692 101.823171 212.660310
2025-08-17 20.125723 25.019155 31.927903 43.190152 63.193051 103.854251 230.959774
2025-08-24 19.422236 24.261799 31.159276 42.555233 63.225763 106.794441 255.055236
2025-08-31 18.603125 23.325180 30.104343 41.422527 62.295271 107.595575 273.340177
2025-09-07 18.425135 23.305907 30.435173 42.641251 66.087525 120.909642 366.868763
2025-09-14 17.931153 22.798269 29.980551 42.464244 67.050534 127.347688 441.140428
2025-09-21 17.345392 22.129889 29.238980 41.722790 66.736951 130.197981 501.074883
2025-09-28 16.696286 21.343744 28.276400 40.522324 65.306578 129.457224 532.957900
2025-10-05 16.622530 21.412372 28.667610 41.784050 69.415930 147.147484 845.196100
2025-10-12 16.456486 21.332287 28.812078 42.601297 72.675532 163.976409 1429.592027
2025-10-19 16.258072 21.192976 28.849612 43.216360 75.572051 181.383123 2906.120850
2025-10-26 15.917577 20.821121 28.483007 43.020539 76.442543 191.334166 5912.670167
2025-11-02 15.491517 20.302696 27.849774 42.258775 75.773155 194.371612 10987.335500
2025-11-09 15.071571 19.782123 27.194192 41.415176 74.800407 195.754975 24660.069133