Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 33.220765 35.870547 38.749272 42.130661 46.022107 50.395469 55.733079
2025-04-13 28.545079 31.935910 35.848920 40.769158 46.896861 54.430295 64.652877
2025-04-20 26.852699 30.833043 35.638400 42.011374 50.481855 61.747007 78.642227
2025-04-27 25.550401 29.933252 35.415851 43.009936 53.678035 68.902529 94.045382
2025-05-04 24.404011 29.057784 35.050993 43.661966 56.358300 75.686772 110.769544
2025-05-11 23.121219 27.866904 34.114521 43.349560 57.502965 80.240966 125.117758
2025-05-18 21.956632 26.728683 33.126661 42.813444 58.164665 84.046445 139.355157
2025-05-25 20.844800 25.578514 32.019042 41.963427 58.170123 86.654903 152.086464
2025-06-01 19.848902 24.522472 30.961696 41.074758 57.968965 88.805113 164.688660
2025-06-08 18.881316 23.451207 29.810115 39.932919 57.183871 89.668285 174.502770
2025-06-15 18.624516 23.357338 30.063531 41.011111 60.387170 99.171002 213.827816
2025-06-22 18.038705 22.761100 29.529965 40.760200 61.137384 103.657254 241.328391
2025-06-29 17.384046 22.060299 28.835764 40.250899 61.466745 107.601241 272.067214
2025-07-06 16.586737 21.121074 27.734084 38.980745 60.197012 107.556445 287.652408
2025-07-13 16.425724 21.102600 28.040383 40.134222 63.875646 120.852165 384.242105
2025-07-20 16.221042 21.005377 28.211781 41.060427 67.243885 134.726889 524.316782
2025-07-27 15.960126 20.808414 28.208077 41.664666 70.022449 148.182652 725.234996
2025-08-03 15.536269 20.343935 27.743996 41.375212 70.746004 155.523320 918.113996
2025-08-10 15.099560 19.842283 27.193199 40.878253 70.918543 161.149816 1147.829018
2025-08-17 14.633695 19.279013 26.514951 40.089717 70.296029 163.771902 1370.345970
2025-08-24 14.187133 18.731325 25.840045 39.264529 69.491364 165.531915 1627.100072
2025-08-31 13.719942 18.137871 25.066654 38.203049 67.991914 164.175945 1798.897099
2025-09-07 13.651145 18.164637 25.334888 39.205397 71.836531 186.687562 4533.357600