Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 35.583176 38.444139 41.579867 45.301754 49.639284 54.586575 60.733779
2025-08-17 31.000696 34.652624 38.910423 44.336787 51.217791 59.879470 72.018034
2025-08-24 28.300730 32.299280 37.144783 43.614905 52.313529 64.092552 82.281961
2025-08-31 26.352190 30.544428 35.775135 43.018701 53.231580 67.953706 92.812164
2025-09-07 25.350782 29.826502 35.572935 43.828365 56.061715 74.951454 110.404683
2025-09-14 24.096302 28.652493 34.623365 43.435804 56.997323 79.114515 124.559640
2025-09-21 22.815273 27.339926 33.359635 42.425764 56.788962 81.257632 135.554401
2025-09-28 21.696306 26.167979 32.193358 41.426418 56.429665 83.011538 146.478308
2025-10-05 21.501573 26.226843 32.737557 43.027587 60.544573 94.000521 187.026826
2025-10-12 21.099404 25.965737 32.790901 43.852505 63.432695 103.396433 232.610920
2025-10-19 20.650466 25.607449 32.667282 44.365269 65.816596 112.446783 289.521277
2025-10-26 20.086003 25.051697 32.207292 44.269070 67.016216 119.109755 348.833476
2025-11-02 19.362816 24.259234 31.380437 43.549484 67.027326 123.205071 408.247083
2025-11-09 18.648808 23.452216 30.491884 42.660228 66.596007 126.116150 472.330089
2025-11-16 18.040085 22.772204 29.761256 41.983925 66.512810 130.056547 565.023999
2025-11-23 17.502645 22.174567 29.126900 41.425571 66.604650 134.635876 698.565643
2025-11-30 17.288133 22.045818 29.222067 42.183793 69.720448 150.446088 1228.446088
2025-12-07 16.853493 21.567387 28.730022 41.816256 70.201949 157.519731 1885.168449
2025-12-14 16.328496 20.933853 27.958436 40.869880 69.187660 158.615560 2494.965544
2025-12-21 15.834365 20.332193 27.215337 39.932495 68.092822 159.111657 3390.747388
2025-12-28 15.841802 20.494715 27.728442 41.433895 73.261003 189.412903 NaN
2026-01-04 15.707576 20.432042 27.862352 42.206390 76.754952 216.268142 NaN
2026-01-11 15.526697 20.288931 27.851719 42.686219 79.573495 243.386598 NaN