Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 34.845502 37.511473 40.425427 43.874459 47.882541 52.441193 58.089503
2025-10-19 31.436789 35.006513 39.162834 44.455044 51.164166 59.615591 71.486603
2025-10-26 29.247007 33.236767 38.066323 44.513166 53.188719 64.971323 83.285989
2025-11-02 27.280596 31.447010 36.632031 43.798420 53.894621 68.468868 93.220412
2025-11-09 25.594544 29.818623 35.186408 42.807819 53.945646 70.863138 101.954665
2025-11-16 24.258785 28.516612 34.024318 42.029286 54.116092 73.361468 111.591077
2025-11-23 23.165821 27.445032 33.067486 41.411734 54.393476 76.009738 122.450307
2025-11-30 22.707797 27.171927 33.156611 42.285761 57.074413 83.300412 146.769741
2025-12-07 21.926900 26.410077 32.501057 41.966311 57.735220 87.002149 164.767558
2025-12-14 20.998159 25.396345 31.422707 40.899837 56.980639 87.755603 175.189073
2025-12-21 20.232917 24.572234 30.568707 40.113401 56.616820 89.236268 189.067590
2025-12-28 20.146053 24.683117 31.068177 41.502005 60.315801 100.391357 248.862866
2026-01-04 19.856747 24.511965 31.166794 42.294930 63.136279 110.821490 329.544652
2026-01-11 19.499989 24.227077 31.076807 42.765251 65.419188 120.905896 445.468925
2026-01-18 19.075735 23.821499 30.773147 42.831954 66.878381 129.378664 602.622686
2026-01-25 18.512720 23.188966 30.083307 42.162081 66.673818 132.845149 743.321972
2026-02-01 17.928818 22.504704 29.281309 41.235991 65.796165 133.933104 874.825087
2026-02-08 17.423879 21.920654 28.612529 40.507071 65.277677 136.147814 1092.245216
2026-02-15 16.981116 21.414692 28.046365 39.928446 65.035526 139.338376 1478.294368
2026-02-22 16.859476 21.383112 28.233234 40.747265 68.159184 156.716831 6681.068819
2026-03-01 16.515755 21.004121 27.840870 40.448092 68.558645 163.598095 NaN
2026-03-08 16.049362 20.426079 27.103460 39.448484 67.109844 161.840952 NaN
2026-03-15 15.655751 19.949268 26.516945 38.710539 66.254943 162.637166 NaN