Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 33.877619 36.532387 39.425975 42.838624 46.786063 51.249820 56.739776
2025-07-13 30.827517 34.508379 38.796525 44.254173 51.159862 59.824481 71.907486
2025-07-20 28.809124 33.053219 38.225066 45.174049 54.583552 67.429215 87.460062
2025-07-27 27.303765 31.923714 37.754973 45.942278 57.686592 74.989211 105.097474
2025-08-03 25.779392 30.565088 36.766706 45.774723 59.308007 80.572184 121.473598
2025-08-10 24.297429 29.109954 35.471550 44.957529 59.743717 84.254446 135.808422
2025-08-17 22.994538 27.782872 34.216208 44.020997 59.792487 87.206337 149.943180
2025-08-24 21.941604 26.715071 33.224547 43.348954 60.129072 90.689511 167.095355
2025-08-31 21.022603 25.769576 32.328716 42.718175 60.416465 94.106531 186.218718
2025-09-07 20.633857 25.530051 32.420470 43.620004 63.472146 103.869501 231.821544
2025-09-14 19.946469 24.826916 31.776556 43.264417 64.176783 108.757378 266.814969
2025-09-21 19.194929 23.994201 30.886788 42.421842 63.840234 111.157083 295.312504
2025-09-28 18.355634 23.022172 29.769155 41.171391 62.682127 111.614224 318.249725
2025-10-05 18.197364 23.030612 30.146420 42.498672 66.862929 127.233052 461.547413
2025-10-12 17.939312 22.875089 30.253099 43.357099 70.237497 142.379057 689.362013
2025-10-19 17.667219 22.682065 30.283059 44.073230 73.439951 158.884055 1141.185045
2025-10-26 17.235763 22.227673 29.863840 43.917089 74.623523 169.332730 1808.360945
2025-11-02 16.713764 21.614539 29.154341 43.155164 74.252353 173.930600 2645.442900
2025-11-09 16.202118 20.999370 28.413735 42.281153 73.494648 176.806391 3984.170690
2025-11-16 15.767047 20.487472 27.821540 41.653431 73.274513 182.033820 8311.338259
2025-11-23 15.363557 20.011190 27.268211 41.063836 73.077910 187.460606 38818.692826
2025-11-30 15.241982 19.967386 27.434765 41.906660 76.758607 214.238637 NaN
2025-12-07 14.920362 19.598701 27.033412 41.574437 77.226959 225.163381 NaN