Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 35.303434 38.266371 41.537481 45.452235 50.058788 55.371331 62.059538
2025-09-07 30.496200 34.254749 38.685708 44.409423 51.791849 61.284006 74.964440
2025-09-14 27.677988 31.755931 36.759849 43.548533 52.869892 65.851421 86.723181
2025-09-21 25.152394 29.241573 34.387785 41.596433 51.924162 67.153638 93.797098
2025-09-28 23.776209 28.003343 33.459001 41.355276 53.188261 71.777880 107.732974
2025-10-05 23.598992 28.262523 34.482286 43.888564 58.898501 84.800694 143.860484
2025-10-12 22.462384 27.137872 33.483220 43.311912 59.563595 89.230394 164.687063
2025-10-19 21.757550 26.539301 33.154919 43.682188 61.821106 97.271208 201.618295
2025-10-26 21.447178 26.453272 33.537364 45.180790 66.296776 111.447936 277.216091
2025-11-02 20.834542 25.894087 33.166407 45.395473 68.418136 121.197217 358.087531
2025-11-09 19.824888 24.710521 31.774777 43.759220 66.655721 120.659469 386.341068
2025-11-16 18.923526 23.644444 30.504905 42.231136 64.918898 119.778567 413.895877
2025-11-23 18.588898 23.503040 30.822485 43.810089 70.622095 144.872802 874.687340
2025-11-30 17.689839 22.493603 29.734448 42.822296 70.754502 154.149275 1534.863368
2025-12-07 16.928160 21.637598 28.814891 42.014471 71.098309 164.822108 4022.982437
2025-12-14 16.037419 20.538833 27.427360 40.178792 68.620542 163.107632 7816.120100
2025-12-21 15.533688 20.000805 26.915450 39.951758 70.061406 179.613131 NaN
2025-12-28 15.541510 20.241426 27.697771 42.333805 78.960503 247.697860 NaN
2026-01-04 15.047670 19.672578 27.070391 41.792142 79.694920 271.681674 NaN
2026-01-11 14.735311 19.372867 26.882398 42.139989 83.195936 327.843283 NaN
2026-01-18 14.604149 19.351892 27.173687 43.546434 90.610172 464.707841 NaN
2026-01-25 14.304559 19.043647 26.932285 43.747735 94.152896 594.761326 NaN
2026-02-01 13.782593 18.353601 25.966915 42.212337 91.027492 582.772724 NaN