Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 34.624339 37.423442 40.473118 44.066982 48.218623 52.904453 58.652187
2025-05-04 30.799549 34.577702 38.971905 44.548916 51.574500 60.332184 72.426139
2025-05-11 28.125558 32.316316 37.393281 44.157115 53.202420 65.331160 83.734427
2025-05-18 26.032440 30.417629 35.891795 43.458247 54.064965 69.171961 94.079585
2025-05-25 24.305629 28.770694 34.476728 42.599697 54.438339 72.197520 103.776788
2025-06-01 22.905825 27.407495 33.274488 41.840023 54.757564 75.070881 113.905642
2025-06-08 21.580435 26.036669 31.933651 40.715976 54.330150 76.594062 121.931240
2025-06-15 21.194172 25.879043 32.217870 41.941135 57.658303 84.996598 146.859331
2025-06-22 20.425988 25.144678 31.627031 41.777063 58.681998 89.461974 165.182320
2025-06-29 19.578152 24.249004 30.739941 41.065136 58.668581 91.921581 179.742209
2025-07-06 18.675975 23.231786 29.614752 39.883620 57.690779 92.260032 188.724827
2025-07-13 18.505480 23.234666 29.978587 41.100271 61.131575 102.544239 234.880902
2025-07-20 18.232795 23.093499 30.142103 42.047659 64.312015 113.441513 296.837243
2025-07-27 17.851789 22.776030 30.017680 42.500770 66.622566 123.102634 369.971752
2025-08-03 17.313328 22.199151 29.453923 42.137949 67.224201 128.578478 433.433168
2025-08-10 16.751627 21.563022 28.761840 41.490702 67.142567 132.191016 495.143677
2025-08-17 16.196248 20.914479 28.017859 40.694868 66.644123 134.503740 555.797411
2025-08-24 15.695842 20.330393 27.349734 39.990043 66.263892 137.127141 631.093570
2025-08-31 15.154474 19.666317 26.525219 38.946035 65.013396 136.720744 677.823062
2025-09-07 15.087861 19.721014 26.864796 40.083890 68.892329 154.735345 1098.498028
2025-09-14 14.771566 19.379390 26.536572 39.931602 69.719357 162.541372 1491.986339
2025-09-21 14.376080 18.902350 25.963870 39.270477 69.227974 165.223047 1834.881226
2025-09-28 13.917983 18.315554 25.187880 38.172081 67.543337 162.697065 1962.955674