Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 36.568571 39.770691 43.316989 47.575071 52.603304 58.423468 65.779587
2025-07-27 33.202711 37.677728 43.030316 50.062132 59.318237 71.513634 89.644605
2025-08-03 30.743190 35.818723 42.195315 51.098702 63.781711 82.303739 114.144010
2025-08-10 28.668436 34.035465 41.023579 51.242179 66.747830 91.484423 140.336680
2025-08-17 26.533193 31.893834 39.042559 49.834454 66.969712 96.206255 161.046404
2025-08-24 24.765921 30.059867 37.254311 48.398355 66.773776 100.018614 182.318173
2025-08-31 24.278014 29.897746 37.755939 50.422785 72.614026 116.967234 252.441724
2025-09-07 22.977344 28.495163 36.319242 49.184942 72.442432 121.530584 292.359655
2025-09-14 21.886516 27.314061 35.107900 48.160467 72.460366 126.550388 343.224946
2025-09-21 20.595011 25.772650 33.248614 45.869981 69.678041 123.984407 357.280814
2025-09-28 19.902239 25.059022 32.597728 45.560342 70.767048 131.712113 446.081937
2025-10-05 19.883615 25.321189 33.456244 47.940366 77.840391 159.527465 848.137268
2025-10-12 18.925384 24.264657 32.364634 47.098874 78.696453 172.579848 1461.180103
2025-10-19 18.656808 24.245300 32.964437 49.542633 88.137469 228.266361 NaN
2025-10-26 18.153005 23.818479 32.838270 50.560728 94.558101 285.864107 NaN
2025-11-02 17.555644 23.199500 32.321854 50.701627 98.729629 344.550846 NaN
2025-11-09 16.778980 22.248870 31.154601 49.318979 98.019329 370.701292 NaN
2025-11-16 16.065332 21.361679 30.036175 47.907954 96.864591 393.807706 NaN
2025-11-23 15.905119 21.351588 30.457541 49.896889 107.504034 599.136650 NaN
2025-11-30 15.314904 20.609285 29.507777 48.680871 106.718686 659.286211 NaN
2025-12-07 14.795244 19.959810 28.687478 47.674169 106.450565 741.241944 NaN
2025-12-14 14.144327 19.069846 27.382301 45.422463 100.955904 681.410696 NaN
2025-12-21 13.787228 18.652297 26.924461 45.117965 102.918505 837.293204 NaN