Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 29.614646 31.720289 34.000290 36.670812 39.737132 43.177984 47.375196
2025-10-19 27.083169 29.908274 33.145588 37.190585 42.201466 48.339427 56.658491
2025-10-26 25.798225 29.089428 33.012966 38.152750 44.904246 53.793245 67.029890
2025-11-02 24.475397 28.016002 32.361015 38.260802 46.378390 57.728596 76.115947
2025-11-09 22.896824 26.463496 30.923735 37.126362 45.936679 58.796810 81.004315
2025-11-16 21.545187 25.088832 29.586116 35.960395 45.252448 59.314859 85.003853
2025-11-23 21.015669 24.720459 29.517280 36.497214 47.052733 63.895892 97.466853
2025-11-30 20.339717 24.110086 29.067488 36.431187 47.900615 67.028723 108.226820
2025-12-07 19.618009 23.394636 28.420660 36.009934 48.118217 69.075226 117.432237
2025-12-14 18.575153 22.200008 27.045640 34.407465 46.259916 67.069361 116.426610
2025-12-21 18.148367 21.819612 26.787006 34.461239 47.131168 70.293404 129.879644
2025-12-28 17.861028 21.613019 26.756962 34.852159 48.600909 74.946723 149.961463
2026-01-04 17.189736 20.927519 26.116425 34.428941 48.945482 78.130304 171.110128
2026-01-11 16.781818 20.594542 25.975667 34.804722 50.826774 85.345223 217.173489
2026-01-18 16.542742 20.478741 26.135881 35.670591 53.760988 96.194672 307.370793
2026-01-25 16.134297 20.094595 25.859823 35.765078 55.184463 103.856156 415.690489
2026-02-01 15.500417 19.353298 24.991813 34.757305 54.171036 104.269790 469.628271
2026-02-08 14.904217 18.644533 24.140570 33.718498 52.967463 103.809651 519.193988
2026-02-15 14.692376 18.491090 24.145366 34.197123 55.128626 114.957051 910.252185
2026-02-22 14.378386 18.171586 23.868359 34.138286 56.077300 122.653715 1670.509468
2026-03-01 14.018624 17.769529 23.438830 33.762694 56.233316 127.606939 3475.762370
2026-03-08 13.460390 17.052357 22.474873 32.330447 53.705220 120.999897 2783.382800
2026-03-15 13.234003 16.829394 22.301775 32.378599 54.776661 129.804489 44944.032170