Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.384310 13.049982 14.847292 16.927390 19.264925 21.807006 24.777154
2025-05-04 8.799982 11.021106 13.607314 16.827285 20.713985 25.238282 30.886737
2025-05-11 7.379945 9.790437 12.738395 16.583449 21.437707 27.331388 34.994103
2025-05-18 6.405619 8.947690 12.195466 16.608777 22.402941 29.698590 39.519597
2025-05-25 5.728584 8.368861 11.871962 16.802322 23.494192 32.182544 44.223306
2025-06-01 5.105738 7.777958 11.450119 16.788497 24.258058 34.230111 48.417415
2025-06-08 4.543410 7.200258 10.973630 16.627219 24.763803 35.908188 52.148410
2025-06-15 4.153432 6.826302 10.738941 16.764639 25.660712 38.129458 56.694120
2025-06-22 3.909293 6.642752 10.755851 17.250042 27.060448 41.097535 62.401349
2025-06-29 3.530588 6.208456 10.353244 17.065623 27.444164 42.606274 66.063806
2025-07-06 3.056350 5.571168 9.579954 16.245243 26.801147 42.555070 67.411237
2025-07-13 2.896558 5.439206 9.591914 16.647016 28.040804 45.342119 73.075854
2025-07-20 2.724546 5.275362 9.546509 16.964454 29.184621 48.068764 78.827506
2025-07-27 2.491650 4.981862 9.261414 16.865971 29.653443 49.773712 83.087275
2025-08-03 2.260116 4.666051 8.909022 16.621013 29.853652 51.045082 86.697457
2025-08-10 2.095245 4.457503 8.725154 16.646607 30.494652 53.034738 91.515919
2025-08-17 1.970879 4.313718 8.643613 16.840472 31.421857 55.516852 97.215387
2025-08-24 1.828717 4.120479 8.455182 16.826644 31.982862 57.411084 102.020343
2025-08-31 1.680589 3.899995 8.197298 16.665029 32.268166 58.846263 106.109140
2025-09-07 1.582419 3.772969 8.106268 16.802732 33.085672 61.204624 111.822224
2025-09-14 1.531683 3.741784 8.198319 17.289120 34.553574 64.731097 119.642800
2025-09-21 1.411436 3.547124 7.950596 17.104327 34.775044 66.096142 123.797073
2025-09-28 1.237966 3.215000 7.397454 16.282275 33.757735 65.228350 124.023702