Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 11.045876 12.659957 14.394687 16.393748 18.629718 21.049434 23.861851
2025-11-09 8.637466 10.822279 13.350584 16.476323 20.219245 24.538836 29.881498
2025-11-16 7.338058 9.743229 12.662293 16.435378 21.149347 26.808088 34.074524
2025-11-23 6.281078 8.796928 11.985961 16.276682 21.843687 28.761902 37.940343
2025-11-30 5.581579 8.187444 11.616508 16.390399 22.784387 30.962964 42.109990
2025-12-07 5.131053 7.846661 11.541731 16.843847 24.146172 33.724010 47.085436
2025-12-14 4.540410 7.236401 11.027861 16.631429 24.560303 35.213864 50.409723
2025-12-21 3.896159 6.474978 10.224108 15.930798 24.224204 35.634445 52.265701
2025-12-28 3.652049 6.285083 10.220013 16.356563 25.471414 38.254907 57.215837
2026-01-04 3.400631 6.055490 10.130695 16.636384 26.503578 40.597437 61.850302
2026-01-11 3.084291 5.688500 9.797076 16.513848 26.918436 42.055007 65.260112
2026-01-18 2.797645 5.340863 9.462106 16.356704 27.256018 43.393273 68.524619
2026-01-25 2.568825 5.074658 9.244018 16.378411 27.882088 45.206124 72.597500
2026-02-01 2.383726 4.867074 9.105182 16.515095 28.689115 47.318800 77.196296
2026-02-08 2.183978 4.611314 8.861392 16.454606 29.165270 48.927946 81.070829
2026-02-15 1.989841 4.345610 8.577578 16.302686 29.475331 50.278997 84.583468
2026-02-22 1.855453 4.180077 8.455456 16.414051 30.213813 52.317053 89.217014
2026-03-01 1.781721 4.126548 8.529831 16.868990 31.542128 55.334782 95.483383
2026-03-08 1.623968 3.886530 8.240978 16.655968 31.717858 56.491842 98.818425
2026-03-15 1.421237 3.530463 7.704053 15.954551 31.006447 56.159327 99.727100
2026-03-22 1.369448 3.492623 7.776647 16.380823 32.287621 59.162296 106.155291
2026-03-29 1.304615 3.419349 7.773166 16.661020 33.316576 61.772348 112.010663
2026-04-05 1.202639 3.251391 7.566566 16.538321 33.608290 63.137620 115.831419