Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.263557 14.050606 15.977958 18.207512 20.711829 23.434056 26.613261
2025-04-06 9.521071 11.910631 14.690093 18.147243 22.316169 27.164486 33.211975
2025-04-13 7.664596 10.164719 13.221213 17.206440 22.235890 28.340181 36.273994
2025-04-20 6.816391 9.509809 12.947082 17.612887 23.732168 31.429601 41.781566
2025-04-27 6.147091 8.964707 12.697280 17.942877 25.052536 34.271087 47.030315
2025-05-04 5.451712 8.290788 12.186212 17.840908 25.742011 36.276411 51.244960
2025-05-11 4.826351 7.636168 11.620867 17.582737 26.151502 37.873162 54.934104
2025-05-18 4.379248 7.187671 11.293547 17.609291 26.922867 39.962743 59.357606
2025-05-25 4.041433 6.864748 11.111124 17.812629 27.931376 42.402789 64.355221
2025-06-01 3.692763 6.486911 10.807302 17.797287 28.594885 44.355159 68.716991
2025-06-08 3.351435 6.085139 10.428136 17.626892 28.995071 45.917262 72.551817
2025-06-15 3.119263 5.840000 10.271995 17.783632 29.887732 48.230416 77.577387
2025-06-22 2.980370 5.746796 10.362493 18.353033 31.477377 51.704430 84.568171
2025-06-29 2.717676 5.411351 10.024164 18.194698 31.893455 53.390484 88.895772
2025-07-06 2.357513 4.861884 9.273663 17.284115 31.014917 52.983011 89.907435
2025-07-13 2.243893 4.758953 9.290340 17.680644 32.314987 56.085977 96.590554
2025-07-20 2.130471 4.644700 9.275654 18.015870 33.520699 59.077946 103.204911
2025-07-27 1.965292 4.412297 9.026245 17.912105 33.958441 60.818220 107.838199
2025-08-03 1.795508 4.153296 8.705730 17.653501 34.102870 62.063844 111.688849
2025-08-10 1.676320 3.986792 8.546995 17.679980 34.747558 64.170348 117.048519
2025-08-17 1.587424 3.875650 8.486273 17.884109 35.717475 66.865075 123.497400
2025-08-24 1.481490 3.716811 8.318185 17.868691 36.278628 68.866226 128.823299
2025-08-31 1.368456 3.530555 8.079673 17.697691 36.535647 70.335071 133.269796