Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.656712 13.352036 15.178859 17.290161 19.659294 22.231924 25.233162
2025-06-15 9.156695 11.450904 14.115675 17.424999 21.408816 26.033466 31.790791
2025-06-22 8.062310 10.661153 13.825960 17.935932 23.101330 29.344566 37.424391
2025-06-29 6.914579 9.627694 13.078338 17.745353 23.842580 31.481867 41.713075
2025-07-06 5.783341 8.442031 11.959746 16.894935 23.569490 32.202514 44.117891
2025-07-13 5.305364 8.065894 11.844117 17.312324 24.926576 35.040704 49.353839
2025-07-20 4.876921 7.701302 11.690304 17.631508 26.128057 37.690534 54.427339
2025-07-27 4.401976 7.213240 11.306606 17.574024 26.768876 39.572918 58.507492
2025-08-03 3.951745 6.712166 10.851613 17.359866 27.143339 41.067518 62.078072
2025-08-10 3.615794 6.352160 10.570086 17.367135 27.817084 42.990858 66.313113
2025-08-17 3.357142 6.088565 10.409290 17.534200 28.719562 45.265007 71.131098
2025-08-24 3.086342 5.777235 10.144226 17.510367 29.313271 47.090029 75.342428
2025-08-31 2.805745 5.428132 9.798654 17.345258 29.694007 48.639204 79.257755
2025-09-07 2.610693 5.209784 9.650635 17.487434 30.562809 50.966674 84.454078
2025-09-14 2.499271 5.129601 9.725989 17.997498 32.040232 54.287867 91.303373
2025-09-21 2.283511 4.834784 9.404822 17.807200 32.345342 55.759822 95.297091
2025-09-28 1.990874 4.363397 8.731318 16.953845 31.479345 55.296528 96.164598
2025-10-05 1.907210 4.292567 8.777228 17.372633 32.797773 58.434619 102.959558
2025-10-12 1.816421 4.198288 8.770980 17.692769 33.954575 61.344356 109.480934
2025-10-19 1.685517 4.008264 8.568126 17.635120 34.435931 63.133911 114.202268
2025-10-26 1.547756 3.789732 8.292543 17.420294 34.617891 64.412758 118.101684
2025-11-02 1.446451 3.639955 8.140207 17.427588 35.197860 66.389674 123.247121
2025-11-09 1.369745 3.537198 8.073982 17.595170 36.076886 68.914060 129.413888