Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 13.044743 14.908753 16.912683 19.223359 21.810222 24.612935 27.875189
2025-07-27 10.201922 12.714641 15.622729 19.221423 23.538163 28.531889 34.727114
2025-08-03 8.599099 11.338979 14.664608 18.969265 24.361291 30.857004 39.235665
2025-08-10 7.477979 10.373693 14.041173 18.980771 25.406877 33.424880 44.118607
2025-08-17 6.686732 9.694837 13.647493 19.155724 26.555846 36.066220 49.109747
2025-08-24 5.963955 9.011708 13.156021 19.115896 27.362138 38.248534 53.560711
2025-08-31 5.323301 8.363097 12.631498 18.952151 27.938735 40.098520 57.599685
2025-09-07 4.861318 7.917728 12.338366 19.062131 28.861101 42.418507 62.338449
2025-09-14 4.579777 7.708290 12.356305 19.598599 30.389504 45.618124 68.406918
2025-09-21 4.145353 7.217730 11.909985 19.403652 30.822862 47.263916 72.323907
2025-09-28 3.610755 6.514126 11.077585 18.553994 30.213548 47.348125 73.959506
2025-10-05 3.432928 6.376820 11.114186 19.038493 31.630177 50.442514 80.102314
2025-10-12 3.230227 6.184938 11.056849 19.382239 32.867170 53.355555 86.154524
2025-10-19 2.967534 5.864462 10.763389 19.321807 33.459847 55.313076 90.845170
2025-10-26 2.702877 5.513081 10.386535 19.088671 33.745762 56.786597 94.823119
2025-11-02 2.504589 5.263695 10.163319 19.093174 34.408165 58.862772 99.803951
2025-11-09 2.352118 5.085424 10.049135 19.271537 35.357922 61.421253 105.628050
2025-11-16 2.181001 4.854249 9.820923 19.230627 35.926180 63.375620 110.545355
2025-11-23 2.008644 4.603496 9.536392 19.066310 36.264943 64.955335 114.898158
2025-11-30 1.887237 4.444438 9.409967 19.176772 37.079443 67.342924 120.646479
2025-12-07 1.827273 4.407998 9.513806 19.716139 38.673456 71.092236 128.777791
2025-12-14 1.686446 4.184887 9.237294 19.520139 38.931348 72.573020 133.143575
2025-12-21 1.487655 3.814060 8.638490 18.665947 37.938741 71.850876 133.726772