Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 14.131933 16.134033 18.283097 20.757246 23.522647 26.513952 29.989965
2025-08-10 11.164566 13.888126 17.031837 20.911511 25.552145 30.905332 37.527184
2025-08-17 9.630852 12.661677 16.326246 21.050992 26.945272 34.017385 43.101988
2025-08-24 8.371271 11.574200 15.612848 21.027750 28.039232 36.746687 48.304435
2025-08-31 7.345141 10.619080 14.902737 20.845663 28.792433 38.956988 52.829631
2025-09-07 6.616382 9.962715 14.490282 20.967348 29.880245 41.581956 57.947753
2025-09-14 6.165001 9.629096 14.458664 21.558667 31.578812 45.038233 64.267113
2025-09-21 5.535041 8.968287 13.900201 21.349071 32.126162 46.929241 68.519688
2025-09-28 4.792579 8.062439 12.904929 20.421099 31.570360 47.229651 70.542453
2025-10-05 4.543423 7.885462 12.961076 21.017674 33.214504 50.657660 77.060175
2025-10-12 4.277897 7.654516 12.909921 21.434856 34.596170 53.747385 83.197014
2025-10-19 3.919913 7.238024 12.534015 21.317148 35.149615 55.632547 87.634739
2025-10-26 3.555738 6.784487 12.074323 21.050080 35.477565 57.226577 91.760655
2025-11-02 3.281791 6.460817 11.800108 21.057421 36.225553 59.475827 96.953188
2025-11-09 3.070615 6.226409 11.651893 21.250440 37.260783 62.184257 102.920096
2025-11-16 2.838967 5.932234 11.377382 21.208437 37.902229 64.293216 108.026449
2025-11-23 2.608286 5.617118 11.040272 21.031461 38.299789 66.016680 112.572970
2025-11-30 2.444076 5.413396 10.883868 21.151802 39.188786 68.544004 118.463894
2025-12-07 2.360603 5.360660 10.996007 21.748538 40.907649 72.469720 126.722273
2025-12-14 2.174929 5.083918 10.671887 21.537020 41.214579 74.081886 131.271753
2025-12-21 1.916469 4.630488 9.978580 20.601915 40.198037 73.441236 132.080472
2025-12-28 1.861474 4.604265 10.107137 21.203111 41.935331 77.487833 140.797685
2026-01-04 1.789001 4.533073 10.141039 21.623551 43.360001 81.045480 148.800442