Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 11.369979 13.028024 14.815227 16.881359 19.200497 21.719562 24.659146
2025-06-15 8.942750 11.189178 13.799680 17.043077 20.949263 25.485713 31.135571
2025-06-22 7.867267 10.410031 13.508366 17.534270 22.596769 28.718787 36.645698
2025-06-29 6.746589 9.401032 12.779386 17.351616 23.328785 30.822090 40.863531
2025-07-06 5.639717 8.239704 11.682476 16.516126 23.058031 31.525132 43.218992
2025-07-13 5.172356 7.871460 11.568854 16.924476 24.387801 34.308664 48.358066
2025-07-20 4.753584 7.514663 11.417993 17.236776 25.565285 36.907941 53.338771
2025-07-27 4.289547 7.037272 11.042263 17.180247 26.193360 38.754783 57.345257
2025-08-03 3.849775 6.547252 10.596805 16.970247 26.560290 40.221214 60.851737
2025-08-10 3.521840 6.195462 10.321536 16.977776 27.221614 42.109876 65.013264
2025-08-17 3.269447 5.937994 10.164510 17.142001 28.107541 44.343472 69.748705
2025-08-24 3.003140 5.630226 9.899403 17.109370 28.675152 46.112691 73.852682
2025-08-31 2.729041 5.288439 9.560052 16.945369 29.044577 47.626868 77.689026
2025-09-07 2.539045 5.075523 9.415809 17.085365 29.897427 49.912502 82.795654
2025-09-14 2.430588 4.997529 9.490009 17.585649 31.347146 53.173909 89.527402
2025-09-21 2.220353 4.709807 9.176206 17.399736 31.646955 54.619623 93.452775
2025-09-28 1.935017 4.249294 8.517094 16.563109 30.796049 54.161723 94.299841
2025-10-05 1.853379 4.179889 8.561460 16.972158 32.086828 57.238749 100.971373
2025-10-12 1.764917 4.087817 8.555238 17.285361 33.220491 60.093977 107.378172
2025-10-19 1.637394 3.902306 8.356802 17.228649 33.691900 61.849671 112.016311
2025-10-26 1.503231 3.689023 8.087332 17.018135 33.869920 63.104333 115.847335
2025-11-02 1.404649 3.542995 7.938644 17.025678 34.439271 65.046264 120.906618
2025-11-09 1.330040 3.442883 7.874204 17.190317 35.302206 67.526437 126.971399