Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 13.438711 15.354459 17.407898 19.768128 22.401368 25.244082 28.540293
2025-10-19 10.516859 13.109956 16.097757 19.776445 24.164078 29.208895 35.426217
2025-10-26 8.865468 11.699602 15.121599 19.523475 24.997766 31.541149 39.909313
2025-11-02 7.714151 10.718956 14.502698 19.562548 26.089673 34.158090 44.808885
2025-11-09 6.882526 10.004219 14.081105 19.717657 27.218223 36.755593 49.682507
2025-11-16 6.120680 9.282966 13.556339 19.649984 27.993677 38.879661 53.991064
2025-11-23 5.451040 8.606585 13.010066 19.472745 28.558302 40.695101 57.913069
2025-11-30 4.976080 8.153965 12.721389 19.602812 29.510353 43.028074 62.580184
2025-12-07 4.679308 7.931170 12.731356 20.135813 31.025273 46.163646 68.436663
2025-12-14 4.214194 7.401550 12.239934 19.888325 31.385967 47.680046 72.074624
2025-12-21 3.669065 6.689938 11.411738 19.068029 30.840718 47.856316 73.787121
2025-12-28 3.498536 6.572550 11.490370 19.626004 32.359331 51.047849 79.922560
2026-01-04 3.293335 6.383873 11.449397 20.005301 33.643010 53.976024 85.835692
2026-01-11 3.004684 6.023558 11.101405 19.869346 34.116669 55.711901 90.049239
2026-01-18 2.735744 5.670124 10.733340 19.666668 34.456972 57.235739 93.970003
2026-01-25 2.532044 5.415745 10.512280 19.687454 35.144516 59.303698 98.773618
2026-02-01 2.370252 5.223987 10.383520 19.850144 36.060036 61.746569 104.221346
2026-02-08 2.188027 4.974419 10.131584 19.779661 36.576608 63.567025 108.745390
2026-02-15 2.007768 4.710425 9.832104 19.602270 36.895233 65.069499 112.801034
2026-02-22 1.884371 4.550052 9.711493 19.732774 37.736356 67.434472 118.292462
2026-03-01 1.820765 4.508908 9.812537 20.268952 39.297788 71.024354 125.860962
2026-03-08 1.669219 4.263550 9.500734 20.020001 39.463321 72.300367 129.689411
2026-03-15 1.468818 3.888614 8.904138 19.194994 38.555987 71.733858 130.449400