Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 1.962349 2.075189 2.193596 2.327544 2.475394 2.634214 2.818540
2025-08-17 1.777944 1.932067 2.101328 2.302535 2.537251 2.805020 3.137479
2025-08-24 1.656632 1.832682 2.031976 2.277104 2.574535 2.929296 3.393367
2025-08-31 1.578389 1.771289 1.995090 2.278256 2.633553 3.074221 3.678730
2025-09-07 1.520916 1.727743 1.972831 2.290725 2.701787 3.230337 3.989059
2025-09-14 1.451385 1.664094 1.920263 2.259007 2.707606 3.301543 4.187098
2025-09-21 1.389506 1.605735 1.869772 2.224812 2.704977 3.357631 4.365381
2025-09-28 1.332251 1.549897 1.818825 2.185706 2.691104 3.394336 4.515430
2025-10-05 1.311040 1.537994 1.822612 2.218089 2.775957 3.576449 4.908787
2025-10-12 1.292150 1.527712 1.827277 2.250879 2.862327 3.766858 5.340134
2025-10-19 1.272067 1.514654 1.827109 2.276143 2.938440 3.947223 5.779839
2025-10-26 1.238779 1.482761 1.800002 2.261483 2.953406 4.031420 6.058808
2025-11-02 1.206693 1.451824 1.773557 2.247275 2.969414 4.120899 6.366743
2025-11-09 1.173342 1.418033 1.741820 2.223667 2.969090 4.182827 6.631097
2025-11-16 1.142072 1.385922 1.711029 2.199639 2.966016 4.238902 6.891831
2025-11-23 1.121130 1.367045 1.697802 2.200728 3.002634 4.366952 7.328306
2025-11-30 1.104924 1.354001 1.692096 2.212510 3.056930 4.531438 7.880129
2025-12-07 1.076580 1.323313 1.660127 2.182535 3.039548 4.561067 8.120369
2025-12-14 1.048986 1.292911 1.627575 2.150202 3.016112 4.576857 8.329902
2025-12-21 1.021326 1.261716 1.592941 2.113205 2.982535 4.570048 8.481048
2025-12-28 1.015063 1.260272 1.601303 2.143844 3.067611 4.804898 9.331762
2026-01-04 1.009162 1.259065 1.609805 2.174852 3.155185 5.054974 10.308689
2026-01-11 1.001489 1.255045 1.613889 2.198731 3.231357 5.290439 11.330767