Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.098670 2.220949 2.349617 2.495618 2.657328 2.831696 3.034930
2025-06-15 1.933326 2.104316 2.293072 2.518799 2.783984 3.088993 3.471402
2025-06-22 1.794041 1.987856 2.208523 2.481814 2.816246 3.219252 3.753264
2025-06-29 1.684986 1.892037 2.133336 2.440380 2.828486 3.314379 3.989288
2025-07-06 1.590087 1.804062 2.058038 2.388282 2.816907 3.370989 4.172682
2025-07-13 1.548537 1.776244 2.051840 2.418699 2.908982 3.566191 4.563658
2025-07-20 1.516383 1.756895 2.053285 2.456617 3.011000 3.781191 5.008608
2025-07-27 1.489060 1.741233 2.057227 2.496262 3.116228 4.008440 5.503032
2025-08-03 1.442958 1.698874 2.023571 2.481819 3.142457 4.119871 5.824765
2025-08-10 1.400263 1.658699 1.990276 2.464949 3.162458 4.221616 6.142807
2025-08-17 1.357767 1.616825 1.952428 2.438874 3.165857 4.295909 6.421195
2025-08-24 1.318253 1.577236 1.915694 2.411894 3.165140 4.362087 6.693163
2025-08-31 1.289663 1.551675 1.897662 2.411838 3.207262 4.505935 7.149336
2025-09-07 1.270667 1.538188 1.895498 2.434572 3.286457 4.721301 7.799473
2025-09-14 1.234013 1.499357 1.856223 2.399637 3.269813 4.764620 8.083297
2025-09-21 1.198256 1.460592 1.815545 2.360445 3.243251 4.786715 8.322726
2025-09-28 1.161333 1.419146 1.769634 2.311130 3.196603 4.766809 8.457919
2025-10-05 1.150626 1.413529 1.774532 2.339927 3.283140 5.008361 9.306127
2025-10-12 1.142604 1.411242 1.783903 2.375806 3.384081 5.290379 10.356930
2025-10-19 1.135381 1.409726 1.794143 2.413298 3.490452 5.597810 11.605723
2025-10-26 1.114219 1.387770 1.773369 2.399642 3.503183 5.708271 12.285206
2025-11-02 1.093449 1.365806 1.751838 2.383687 3.510421 5.807405 12.967885
2025-11-09 1.071289 1.341290 1.725724 2.359019 3.499671 5.864862 13.527952