Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.374852 2.525739 2.685890 2.869319 3.074589 3.298394 3.562467
2025-05-04 2.185847 2.396964 2.633125 2.919792 3.262448 3.664369 4.180039
2025-05-11 2.028068 2.267939 2.545611 2.896187 3.335188 3.878753 4.623485
2025-05-18 1.911619 2.169889 2.476872 2.876742 3.396913 4.071288 5.050855
2025-05-25 1.814199 2.084052 2.411730 2.849701 3.438117 4.232258 5.448896
2025-06-01 1.731851 2.009471 2.352724 2.821802 3.470161 4.377611 5.839192
2025-06-08 1.673089 1.959702 2.320210 2.823538 3.538985 4.577883 6.341547
2025-06-15 1.632605 1.930014 2.310481 2.853191 3.646994 4.845082 6.999261
2025-06-22 1.568442 1.865827 2.250687 2.807887 3.639488 4.930148 7.352807
2025-06-29 1.508592 1.804328 2.190894 2.757871 3.619295 4.990297 7.668674
2025-07-06 1.448857 1.740381 2.124514 2.693884 3.571704 4.998434 7.882758
2025-07-13 1.428189 1.727640 2.127430 2.730392 3.683066 5.287964 8.734751
2025-07-20 1.412139 1.720933 2.138984 2.781390 3.824027 5.652831 9.871115
2025-07-27 1.395075 1.711958 2.146623 2.826575 3.959331 6.027991 11.171914
2025-08-03 1.359005 1.675063 2.112245 2.804059 3.976486 6.176422 11.943623
2025-08-10 1.326529 1.641953 2.081789 2.785623 3.998635 6.337263 12.814083
2025-08-17 1.294070 1.607708 2.048161 2.759988 4.005370 6.466478 13.646223
2025-08-24 1.263308 1.574848 2.015231 2.733531 4.008157 6.587339 14.510128
2025-08-31 1.241849 1.554544 2.000115 2.735177 4.062770 6.831043 15.936741
2025-09-07 1.228457 1.545317 2.001115 2.763297 4.169537 7.212804 18.160153
2025-09-14 1.197731 1.510019 1.961187 2.720332 4.134917 7.250593 18.967919
2025-09-21 1.167313 1.474413 1.919694 2.672870 4.088170 7.252806 19.630876
2025-09-28 1.134915 1.435179 1.871548 2.612109 4.011180 7.170051 19.849282