Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.904247 2.011815 2.124480 2.251674 2.391758 2.541878 2.715650
2025-09-07 1.752521 1.903046 2.068078 2.263886 2.491800 2.751159 3.072235
2025-09-14 1.630273 1.801690 1.995297 2.232795 2.520055 2.861409 3.305916
2025-09-21 1.534880 1.718937 1.931591 2.199333 2.533275 2.944502 3.503587
2025-09-28 1.453499 1.645083 1.870499 2.160405 2.531364 3.002278 3.667230
2025-10-05 1.418689 1.623412 1.868924 2.191899 2.616810 3.174729 3.997393
2025-10-12 1.389429 1.605772 1.869761 2.224384 2.703299 3.352942 4.353027
2025-10-19 1.360511 1.586289 1.866111 2.249221 2.779295 3.520843 4.711425
2025-10-26 1.319978 1.549767 1.838092 2.238916 2.804555 3.616390 4.967487
2025-11-02 1.282710 1.515507 1.810896 2.227336 2.825908 3.706104 5.222954
2025-11-09 1.243317 1.476733 1.775718 2.202285 2.825188 3.760809 5.424304
2025-11-16 1.205848 1.438973 1.740115 2.174404 2.817785 3.803292 5.607868
2025-11-23 1.180186 1.416336 1.724512 2.174809 2.853857 3.919834 5.946848
2025-11-30 1.160207 1.400459 1.717302 2.186616 2.907709 4.069863 6.373645
2025-12-07 1.127382 1.366125 1.683207 2.157231 2.894946 4.105818 6.578372
2025-12-14 1.095799 1.332460 1.648769 2.125586 2.876329 4.129475 6.760480
2025-12-21 1.064291 1.297973 1.611992 2.088750 2.846999 4.131431 6.895767
2025-12-28 1.056089 1.295055 1.619425 2.118553 2.927698 4.337727 7.524575
2026-01-04 1.048602 1.292751 1.627428 2.149278 3.011558 4.558160 8.238766
2026-01-11 1.039270 1.287490 1.630825 2.172759 3.084358 4.765029 8.973869
2026-01-18 1.020642 1.268606 1.613703 2.163018 3.098580 4.857291 9.428163
2026-01-25 1.002556 1.249994 1.596351 2.152070 3.109790 4.944222 9.890236
2026-02-01 0.981692 1.226919 1.571721 2.128378 3.096660 4.979133 10.208385