Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.291892 2.432008 2.580267 2.749513 2.938229 3.143196 3.384030
2025-04-13 2.043828 2.228616 2.433538 2.679888 2.971100 3.308450 3.735036
2025-04-20 1.931035 2.147536 2.396076 2.706898 3.091775 3.562156 4.196496
2025-04-27 1.859144 2.100855 2.386329 2.755447 3.231390 3.841993 4.717369
2025-05-04 1.800156 2.061593 2.377885 2.798865 3.361658 4.116816 5.265403
2025-05-11 1.722016 1.991818 2.324179 2.776457 3.398462 4.263852 5.647205
2025-05-18 1.656123 1.932339 2.278060 2.757945 3.435210 4.410008 6.045368
2025-05-25 1.595983 1.876217 2.231855 2.734221 3.459871 4.537411 6.430172
2025-06-01 1.541608 1.824367 2.187652 2.708963 3.478144 4.654117 6.813571
2025-06-08 1.502733 1.790539 2.165038 2.711367 3.535861 4.836966 7.348484
2025-06-15 1.476341 1.771617 2.160981 2.738992 3.632773 5.093379 8.078899
2025-06-22 1.429433 1.723121 2.113711 2.700147 3.621592 5.163209 8.442490
2025-06-29 1.384666 1.676519 2.067913 2.662132 3.610790 5.236097 8.839924
2025-07-06 1.334077 1.620303 2.006425 2.597321 3.551574 5.215162 9.020783
2025-07-13 1.315456 1.607086 2.004918 2.623044 3.643668 5.484904 9.972991
2025-07-20 1.304243 1.603439 2.016536 2.669093 3.773405 5.844733 11.292095
2025-07-27 1.292198 1.597993 2.025005 2.710243 3.897789 6.213178 12.808537
2025-08-03 1.263321 1.567740 1.995707 2.689009 3.908096 6.343068 13.650743
2025-08-10 1.237075 1.540389 1.969616 2.671462 3.923485 6.485983 14.609503
2025-08-17 1.210906 1.512355 1.941454 2.648968 3.927681 6.604230 15.545926
2025-08-24 1.185678 1.484961 1.913285 2.625012 3.927155 6.711561 16.507525
2025-08-31 1.168439 1.468603 1.901199 2.627292 3.977192 6.947204 18.178885
2025-09-07 1.157999 1.461766 1.903275 2.653492 4.076187 7.321380 20.845834