Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.309239 2.451198 2.601490 2.773159 2.964705 3.172895 3.417709
2025-04-13 2.058929 2.246061 2.453743 2.703628 2.999319 3.342249 3.776476
2025-04-20 1.946473 2.165336 2.416724 2.731302 3.121123 3.597968 4.241729
2025-04-27 1.874669 2.118794 2.407221 2.780318 3.261647 3.879564 4.766177
2025-05-04 1.816007 2.080023 2.399521 2.824908 3.393832 4.157629 5.320210
2025-05-11 1.737604 2.010021 2.345665 2.802519 3.431009 4.305780 5.704940
2025-05-18 1.671361 1.950207 2.299261 2.783844 3.467879 4.452698 6.105562
2025-05-25 1.610447 1.893189 2.252013 2.758884 3.491056 4.578324 6.488320
2025-06-01 1.555497 1.840690 2.207072 2.732776 3.508342 4.693890 6.870438
2025-06-08 1.516230 1.806440 2.184010 2.734714 3.565603 4.876348 7.405144
2025-06-15 1.489746 1.787490 2.180037 2.762635 3.663218 5.134276 8.138983
2025-06-22 1.442654 1.738844 2.132687 2.723858 3.652428 5.205211 8.505588
2025-06-29 1.397365 1.691655 2.086227 2.685093 3.640775 5.277126 8.901698
2025-07-06 1.346291 1.634895 2.024131 2.619605 3.580826 5.255465 9.081981
2025-07-13 1.327633 1.621731 2.022838 2.645865 3.674137 5.527966 10.041407
2025-07-20 1.316351 1.618087 2.034592 2.692324 3.804884 5.890207 11.366912
2025-07-27 1.304434 1.612921 2.043608 2.734561 3.931553 6.263956 12.899769
2025-08-03 1.275365 1.582494 2.014190 2.713356 3.942301 6.395524 13.749042
2025-08-10 1.248891 1.554909 1.987881 2.695665 3.957798 6.539388 14.712543
2025-08-17 1.222231 1.526254 1.958903 2.672012 3.960131 6.653907 15.634510
2025-08-24 1.196629 1.498400 1.930151 2.647263 3.958392 6.758868 16.585166
2025-08-31 1.179131 1.481740 1.917707 2.649101 4.007821 6.993291 18.246080
2025-09-07 1.168630 1.474884 1.919850 2.675567 4.107570 7.369452 20.912779