Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.374901 1.446016 1.519700 1.601923 1.691324 1.785826 1.893578
2025-11-09 1.249668 1.348037 1.454141 1.577746 1.718614 1.875166 2.063731
2025-11-16 1.167485 1.280182 1.404983 1.554625 1.730793 1.933669 2.188074
2025-11-23 1.115558 1.239639 1.380046 1.552513 1.761250 2.009217 2.331597
2025-11-30 1.079531 1.213544 1.368078 1.562014 1.802681 2.096894 2.492682
2025-12-07 1.034434 1.173444 1.336149 1.543877 1.806960 2.136299 2.592316
2025-12-14 0.989051 1.130352 1.297789 1.514643 1.794051 2.151018 2.657920
2025-12-21 0.955363 1.099638 1.272629 1.499806 1.797486 2.185557 2.750838
2025-12-28 0.938270 1.088245 1.270378 1.513209 1.837371 2.269628 2.917829
2026-01-04 0.915245 1.068322 1.256218 1.509960 1.854117 2.322126 3.042181
2026-01-11 0.901927 1.059883 1.255977 1.524443 1.894891 2.409610 3.224560
2026-01-18 0.883302 1.043876 1.245133 1.523896 1.914285 2.466970 3.364558
2026-01-25 0.862848 1.025387 1.231037 1.519211 1.928823 2.519891 3.505418
2026-02-01 0.836555 0.998539 1.205034 1.497096 1.917264 2.533107 3.582680
2026-02-08 0.812261 0.973499 1.180480 1.475781 1.905437 2.544582 3.657056
2026-02-15 0.796827 0.959577 1.170215 1.473835 1.921593 2.599671 3.810754
2026-02-22 0.786295 0.951740 1.167752 1.482592 1.953768 2.681505 4.019495
2026-03-01 0.767162 0.931841 1.148158 1.465872 1.946259 2.698618 4.110956
2026-03-08 0.745353 0.907794 1.122166 1.438905 1.921659 2.686034 4.144849
2026-03-15 0.729208 0.890996 1.105701 1.425209 1.916920 2.705918 4.242771
2026-03-22 0.722750 0.887134 1.107015 1.437581 1.953427 2.797311 4.491324
2026-03-29 0.711482 0.876376 1.098294 1.434583 1.965115 2.846450 4.659222
2026-04-05 0.706055 0.873472 1.100498 1.447948 2.003646 2.944954 4.942955