Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.244448 2.379859 2.522950 2.686062 2.867652 3.064543 3.295451
2025-04-13 2.003828 2.182754 2.380813 2.618420 2.898628 3.222352 3.630411
2025-04-20 1.894770 2.104505 2.344720 2.644320 3.014104 3.464322 4.068627
2025-04-27 1.825307 2.059570 2.335497 2.691117 3.147829 3.730909 4.561581
2025-05-04 1.768097 2.021557 2.327265 2.732652 3.272057 3.991549 5.077163
2025-05-11 1.692236 1.953981 2.275374 2.710971 3.306927 4.130503 5.434654
2025-05-18 1.628246 1.896385 2.230856 2.693140 3.341891 4.268663 5.806634
2025-05-25 1.569942 1.842193 2.186492 2.670666 3.365855 4.389768 6.166477
2025-06-01 1.517125 1.792014 2.143918 2.646559 3.383513 4.500361 6.523561
2025-06-08 1.479368 1.759300 2.122206 2.649062 3.438852 4.673361 7.020184
2025-06-15 1.453697 1.740975 2.118336 2.675679 3.531330 4.915065 7.694457
2025-06-22 1.407417 1.693098 2.071527 2.636682 3.517971 4.975913 8.017861
2025-06-29 1.363750 1.647775 2.027135 2.599958 3.507307 5.043574 8.379482
2025-07-06 1.314385 1.593091 1.967552 2.537473 3.450555 5.023153 8.542478
2025-07-13 1.296234 1.580250 1.966084 2.562154 3.538090 5.275654 9.406751
2025-07-20 1.285362 1.576788 1.977428 2.606535 3.661638 5.612319 10.596842
2025-07-27 1.273583 1.571449 1.985539 2.645896 3.779430 5.954921 11.948986
2025-08-03 1.245373 1.541989 1.957115 2.625353 3.788883 6.074903 12.692619
2025-08-10 1.219752 1.515385 1.931853 2.608454 3.803349 6.207250 13.535964
2025-08-17 1.194290 1.488245 1.904785 2.587148 3.807861 6.318108 14.360807
2025-08-24 1.169695 1.461654 1.877610 2.564286 3.807630 6.418184 15.201269
2025-08-31 1.152904 1.445809 1.866020 2.566661 3.855425 6.637145 16.651152
2025-09-07 1.142724 1.439186 1.868076 2.591900 3.949374 6.983071 18.933799