Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.165188 2.293328 2.428368 2.581849 2.752147 2.936128 3.151019
2025-06-15 1.993488 2.172289 2.370073 2.607140 2.886386 3.208528 3.613827
2025-06-22 1.848732 2.050917 2.281617 2.568056 2.919628 3.344777 3.910541
2025-06-29 1.735479 1.951145 2.203060 2.524474 2.932079 3.444402 4.159584
2025-07-06 1.636687 1.859235 2.123999 2.469228 2.918854 3.502564 4.351832
2025-07-13 1.593739 1.830477 2.117708 2.501205 3.015686 3.708680 4.767370
2025-07-20 1.560691 1.810723 2.119652 2.541421 3.123605 3.936889 5.243039
2025-07-27 1.532479 1.794584 2.123932 2.583123 3.234554 4.177859 5.772319
2025-08-03 1.484567 1.750394 2.088611 2.567656 3.261612 4.295093 6.115660
2025-08-10 1.440256 1.708556 2.053767 2.549773 3.282288 4.402366 6.456015
2025-08-17 1.396303 1.665150 2.014437 2.522620 3.286036 4.481452 6.755974
2025-08-24 1.356233 1.625187 1.977747 2.496694 3.288889 4.557888 7.061834
2025-08-31 1.326882 1.598992 1.959440 2.497349 3.334425 4.713000 7.560232
2025-09-07 1.307330 1.585147 1.957409 2.521493 3.418503 4.943607 8.269550
2025-09-14 1.269260 1.544658 1.916234 2.484513 3.400271 4.988561 8.576002
2025-09-21 1.232187 1.504328 1.873720 2.443249 3.371839 5.011320 8.835324
2025-09-28 1.193761 1.461011 1.825453 2.390904 3.321361 4.987511 8.976215
2025-10-05 1.182753 1.455273 1.830672 2.421206 3.412878 5.245876 9.906542
2025-10-12 1.174626 1.453138 1.840770 2.459297 3.520341 5.549469 11.069945
2025-10-19 1.167225 1.451662 1.851570 2.498772 3.633083 5.879868 12.457877
2025-10-26 1.145251 1.428759 1.829742 2.484134 3.645887 5.996953 13.210003
2025-11-02 1.123721 1.405901 1.807199 2.467205 3.653090 6.102349 13.969271
2025-11-09 1.100848 1.380533 1.780092 2.441493 3.641925 6.164504 14.599147