Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.020856 2.141216 2.267784 2.411281 2.570046 2.741007 2.939936
2025-10-19 1.863681 2.032517 2.218749 2.441178 2.702003 3.001232 3.375077
2025-10-26 1.746378 1.940247 2.160862 2.433773 2.767061 3.167433 3.695462
2025-11-02 1.654856 1.865068 2.110171 2.421998 2.815702 3.307411 3.987411
2025-11-09 1.567302 1.786109 2.046138 2.384430 2.823286 3.389481 4.205174
2025-11-16 1.492427 1.716648 1.987416 2.346480 2.823408 3.456757 4.403975
2025-11-23 1.443833 1.675899 1.960602 2.345416 2.868935 3.585272 4.700117
2025-11-30 1.409338 1.650241 1.950347 2.363665 2.939593 3.752097 5.070644
2025-12-07 1.356942 1.599010 1.903953 2.329792 2.933904 3.806270 5.269117
2025-12-14 1.302771 1.543053 1.848496 2.279887 2.901010 3.815646 5.393019
2025-12-21 1.260391 1.500606 1.808782 2.249105 2.892881 3.860511 5.580152
2025-12-28 1.248000 1.496651 1.819794 2.289154 2.990672 4.077185 6.097121
2026-01-04 1.231792 1.487617 1.824291 2.321298 3.080702 4.293459 6.657894
2026-01-11 1.214970 1.477016 1.826001 2.349226 3.165979 4.510507 7.262602
2026-01-18 1.187757 1.451173 1.805173 2.342278 3.194784 4.632362 7.694413
2026-01-25 1.161010 1.424951 1.782598 2.331207 3.215561 4.741117 8.118423
2026-02-01 1.128253 1.389376 1.745362 2.295878 3.193653 4.769299 8.363673
2026-02-08 1.097205 1.355255 1.709009 2.260169 3.168684 4.789110 8.592938
2026-02-15 1.078341 1.337522 1.695553 2.259168 3.202236 4.923149 9.133988
2026-02-22 1.065837 1.328252 1.693904 2.276343 3.267910 5.126484 9.908459
2026-03-01 1.039899 1.299250 1.662342 2.244460 3.245019 5.148893 10.191491
2026-03-08 1.010853 1.265153 1.622315 2.197457 3.192531 5.105764 10.277398
2026-03-15 0.988064 1.239471 1.594072 2.168446 3.170943 5.125648 10.558818