Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.041449 2.145306 2.256249 2.384443 2.529621 2.690353 2.883828
2025-06-15 1.933113 2.068861 2.220048 2.403342 2.623112 2.883217 3.222861
2025-06-22 1.809473 1.956929 2.125215 2.335295 2.596518 2.919909 3.367814
2025-06-29 1.743547 1.903500 2.090161 2.329673 2.638228 3.038102 3.628337
2025-07-06 1.669662 1.834430 2.029642 2.284960 2.622330 3.074706 3.776745
2025-07-13 1.641626 1.817740 2.030353 2.315258 2.704398 3.250885 4.162365
2025-07-20 1.629303 1.818595 2.051625 2.372061 2.825985 3.498405 4.725445
2025-07-27 1.595790 1.790743 2.033925 2.374330 2.869197 3.631901 5.127716
2025-08-03 1.566105 1.765984 2.018333 2.377471 2.912612 3.770336 5.586114
2025-08-10 1.515906 1.712874 1.962820 2.321069 2.860648 3.740762 5.672293
2025-08-17 1.485640 1.684284 1.938471 2.307096 2.872390 3.822541 6.047284
2025-08-24 1.458123 1.658173 1.916145 2.294388 2.884452 3.905778 6.463939
2025-08-31 1.429014 1.629993 1.891152 2.278293 2.892841 3.989685 6.952045
2025-09-07 1.414079 1.619744 1.889863 2.296551 2.958547 4.195530 7.976673
2025-09-14 1.373060 1.573608 1.837368 2.235284 2.885148 4.106999 7.909272
2025-09-21 1.353227 1.555165 1.822637 2.230376 2.907868 4.224214 8.753311
2025-09-28 1.322746 1.521619 1.785692 2.189749 2.865314 4.193903 8.949744
2025-10-05 1.315968 1.519709 1.792965 2.217386 2.945292 4.451692 10.944667
2025-10-12 1.316882 1.528103 1.814952 2.269042 3.074132 4.861731 15.572347
2025-10-19 1.302812 1.515518 1.806255 2.271110 3.110103 5.048497 19.951895
2025-10-26 1.289670 1.503823 1.798379 2.273964 3.147706 5.251147 28.223008
2025-11-02 1.261575 1.470825 1.758514 2.222703 3.074470 5.119124 26.806665
2025-11-09 1.245528 1.454254 1.742334 2.209983 3.077735 5.216952 36.247434