Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 1.971280 2.057126 2.147334 2.249676 2.363174 2.485921 2.629720
2025-04-13 1.826541 1.943210 2.071248 2.223810 2.402924 2.609632 2.871134
2025-04-20 1.761695 1.899524 2.055515 2.248269 2.484855 2.772967 3.163258
2025-04-27 1.727738 1.884298 2.066275 2.298589 2.595825 2.977470 3.533178
2025-05-04 1.676709 1.843507 2.041134 2.299581 2.640943 3.098256 3.806607
2025-05-11 1.633903 1.808878 2.019645 2.301186 2.683939 3.217659 4.097140
2025-05-18 1.576456 1.752846 1.967542 2.258274 2.661096 3.238292 4.232416
2025-05-25 1.540498 1.721343 1.944117 2.250625 2.685002 3.328486 4.501500
2025-06-01 1.506439 1.690431 1.919438 2.238947 2.700983 3.406762 4.766259
2025-06-08 1.473791 1.659803 1.893394 2.223285 2.708959 3.471907 5.021399
2025-06-15 1.456947 1.648438 1.891674 2.240662 2.766813 3.625618 5.509317
2025-06-22 1.416044 1.604619 1.845065 2.191893 2.719055 3.591129 5.558876
2025-06-29 1.378131 1.564479 1.803158 2.149620 2.681371 3.575472 5.665626
2025-07-06 1.348669 1.534592 1.774112 2.124659 2.669592 3.605994 5.905428
2025-07-13 1.338223 1.529111 1.777630 2.146876 2.734736 3.788068 6.651322
2025-07-20 1.336462 1.534835 1.796416 2.192361 2.842017 4.072260 7.962457
2025-07-27 1.319872 1.520152 1.786190 2.193256 2.873242 4.205818 8.890705
2025-08-03 1.304418 1.506482 1.776778 2.194705 2.905251 4.347025 10.061391
2025-08-10 1.276953 1.475879 1.742492 2.155926 2.862326 4.310070 10.265146
2025-08-17 1.260776 1.460211 1.728934 2.149005 2.876735 4.411083 11.480015
2025-08-24 1.244248 1.443643 1.713552 2.138434 2.883501 4.495071 12.818423
2025-08-31 1.227376 1.426207 1.696396 2.124246 2.882373 4.559323 14.246182
2025-09-07 1.220254 1.421916 1.697951 2.139987 2.939060 4.786642 18.727947