Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.219279 2.342839 2.476185 2.632054 2.810958 3.012078 3.258576
2025-07-27 2.097441 2.252146 2.425744 2.638087 2.895479 3.204172 3.614165
2025-08-03 2.019298 2.192972 2.393097 2.645882 2.964956 3.367582 3.939947
2025-08-10 1.922202 2.100681 2.309425 2.578016 2.925285 3.377474 4.049472
2025-08-17 1.868887 2.054907 2.275662 2.564990 2.948362 3.464354 4.269614
2025-08-24 1.825328 2.017053 2.247328 2.553837 2.968608 3.543424 4.481992
2025-08-31 1.788771 1.984974 2.223037 2.544151 2.986765 3.616506 4.689309
2025-09-07 1.770393 1.973587 2.222899 2.564188 3.044530 3.749178 5.013176
2025-09-14 1.713568 1.911765 2.155419 2.489835 2.962260 3.659159 4.921387
2025-09-21 1.688835 1.889164 2.137046 2.480243 2.971206 3.709313 5.091888
2025-09-28 1.654049 1.852586 2.099013 2.441628 2.934756 3.683057 5.108645
2025-10-05 1.654768 1.860661 2.118701 2.482225 3.015694 3.850040 5.532464
2025-10-12 1.664327 1.880847 2.155623 2.549482 3.142704 4.110227 6.232664
2025-10-19 1.649500 1.868714 2.148636 2.553370 3.171129 4.201152 6.569854
2025-10-26 1.636671 1.858535 2.143514 2.559003 3.201413 4.296212 6.940066
2025-11-02 1.598583 1.814424 2.091339 2.494390 3.115933 4.170426 6.691038
2025-11-09 1.581181 1.796993 2.074770 2.480946 3.111835 4.195483 6.860332
2025-11-16 1.565465 1.781323 2.060024 2.469358 3.109587 4.222620 7.038760
2025-11-23 1.551143 1.767099 2.046754 2.459235 3.108733 4.251245 7.225659
2025-11-30 1.547733 1.766985 2.052447 2.476785 3.153309 4.370004 7.719552
2025-12-07 1.513297 1.725237 2.000196 2.406822 3.049792 4.189248 7.210804
2025-12-14 1.501332 1.713117 1.988494 2.397059 3.046448 4.207944 7.360645
2025-12-21 1.480176 1.688508 1.959203 2.360415 2.997082 4.132521 7.191771