Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.889544 1.975211 2.065823 2.169385 2.285220 2.411703 2.561549
2025-11-02 1.769388 1.876953 1.994664 2.134495 2.298117 2.486274 2.723372
2025-11-09 1.694955 1.817036 1.953989 2.121501 2.324610 2.568392 2.892682
2025-11-16 1.637780 1.770341 1.922019 2.112031 2.349458 2.645384 3.059345
2025-11-23 1.588888 1.729060 1.892066 2.100401 2.367561 2.711950 3.216967
2025-11-30 1.558262 1.706814 1.882327 2.111190 2.412586 2.815252 3.437616
2025-12-07 1.502256 1.651085 1.828402 2.062109 2.374390 2.800055 3.478515
2025-12-14 1.468910 1.621262 1.804676 2.049709 2.383275 2.850071 3.625809
2025-12-21 1.435017 1.589251 1.776504 2.029458 2.379199 2.879757 3.743020
2025-12-28 1.422519 1.583008 1.780209 2.050901 2.433814 3.000768 4.037584
2026-01-04 1.415559 1.583142 1.791659 2.082794 2.504974 3.154405 4.428399
2026-01-11 1.392731 1.562256 1.774786 2.074612 2.516147 3.212145 4.643912
2026-01-18 1.373861 1.546533 1.764957 2.076961 2.545172 3.306216 4.973420
2026-01-25 1.343894 1.515576 1.733766 2.047492 2.523055 3.309123 5.094384
2026-02-01 1.322911 1.495605 1.716479 2.036920 2.529463 3.363028 5.359029
2026-02-08 1.304159 1.477959 1.701627 2.029001 2.539236 3.423809 5.666166
2026-02-15 1.285617 1.460052 1.685775 2.018779 2.544365 3.476132 5.973560
2026-02-22 1.275430 1.452756 1.683980 2.028903 2.583141 3.598277 6.567086
2026-03-01 1.246438 1.419938 1.646257 1.984048 2.527309 3.523982 6.452252
2026-03-08 1.230303 1.403866 1.631239 1.972740 2.527644 3.565433 6.787906
2026-03-15 1.212370 1.385022 1.611892 1.954172 2.514489 3.577273 7.020779
2026-03-22 1.208159 1.384357 1.617713 1.973906 2.568484 3.739881 8.037250
2026-03-29 1.207206 1.387968 1.629516 2.003195 2.641426 3.958543 9.720165