Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.070485 2.175792 2.288355 2.418516 2.566055 2.729574 2.926661
2025-08-17 1.955138 2.086874 2.232825 2.408690 2.618005 2.863569 3.180725
2025-08-24 1.878316 2.025709 2.193000 2.400469 2.656344 2.969917 3.398448
2025-08-31 1.820785 1.978941 2.161770 2.393655 2.687944 3.062000 3.599307
2025-09-07 1.788105 1.956984 2.155482 2.412528 2.747761 3.189483 3.857640
2025-09-14 1.720605 1.888929 2.088250 2.348809 2.692936 3.154195 3.869910
2025-09-21 1.688337 1.861245 2.068069 2.341960 2.710104 3.215691 4.030020
2025-09-28 1.648019 1.821561 2.030471 2.309419 2.688646 3.217871 4.092186
2025-10-05 1.646734 1.829126 2.051350 2.352805 2.771793 3.375458 4.426437
2025-10-12 1.654644 1.847605 2.085772 2.414494 2.882819 3.582918 4.882447
2025-10-19 1.634495 1.829631 2.071962 2.409218 2.895535 3.636084 5.057708
2025-10-26 1.619283 1.817096 2.064271 2.411169 2.917610 3.703803 5.268760
2025-11-02 1.579982 1.773670 2.015922 2.356353 2.854312 3.629692 5.182157
2025-11-09 1.561223 1.755836 2.000362 2.346164 2.856757 3.663767 5.327341
2025-11-16 1.544566 1.740039 1.986688 2.337538 2.860160 3.697959 5.474751
2025-11-23 1.529702 1.725992 1.974645 2.330283 2.864438 3.732362 5.624933
2025-11-30 1.525625 1.725442 1.980064 2.347269 2.905833 3.832692 5.946388
2025-12-07 1.492058 1.685889 1.932297 2.286475 2.822472 3.704325 5.678660
2025-12-14 1.480394 1.674571 1.922112 2.279319 2.823179 3.727042 5.795287
2025-12-21 1.460081 1.651584 1.895712 2.247987 2.784319 3.675624 5.714886
2025-12-28 1.467938 1.665286 1.918712 2.288211 2.859877 3.836182 6.211282
2026-01-04 1.482019 1.687177 1.952995 2.345539 2.965227 4.061519 6.965002
2026-01-11 1.473097 1.678425 1.945033 2.339956 2.966475 4.084627 7.112712