Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 1.847146 1.923190 2.002661 2.092275 2.190979 2.296923 2.419977
2025-04-13 1.715464 1.819911 1.933726 2.068235 2.224612 2.403008 2.625515
2025-04-20 1.655396 1.779463 1.918774 2.089283 2.296085 2.544225 2.873896
2025-04-27 1.623395 1.764547 1.927162 2.132468 2.391381 2.717603 3.180162
2025-05-04 1.576741 1.727578 1.904630 2.133418 2.430790 2.820553 3.404908
2025-05-11 1.537478 1.696064 1.885234 2.134729 2.467994 2.921282 3.639445
2025-05-18 1.485447 1.645939 1.839414 2.098087 2.450106 2.941516 3.752319
2025-05-25 1.452412 1.617256 1.818333 2.091351 2.470958 3.017474 3.965632
2025-06-01 1.421167 1.589184 1.796238 2.081219 2.485178 3.083548 4.173342
2025-06-08 1.391276 1.561454 1.773042 2.067761 2.492789 3.139015 4.372075
2025-06-15 1.375515 1.550777 1.771111 2.082679 2.542090 3.265161 4.737482
2025-06-22 1.335586 1.507867 1.725198 2.033972 2.492481 3.222259 4.741183
2025-06-29 1.300475 1.470989 1.687089 1.996086 2.459361 3.208235 4.816130
2025-07-06 1.273474 1.443909 1.661192 1.974453 2.450045 3.234769 4.993024
2025-07-13 1.263541 1.438529 1.663894 1.993492 2.505062 3.381100 5.511239
2025-07-20 1.261433 1.443132 1.679998 2.032487 2.594801 3.605072 6.363290
2025-07-27 1.246121 1.429722 1.670804 2.033344 2.621541 3.711184 6.937475
2025-08-03 1.231794 1.417156 1.662235 2.034526 2.648616 3.821878 7.617294
2025-08-10 1.206793 1.389671 1.632028 2.001450 2.614274 3.797817 7.754109
2025-08-17 1.191815 1.375306 1.619774 1.995362 2.626664 3.877307 8.413425
2025-08-24 1.176556 1.360181 1.605964 1.986201 2.632838 3.943839 9.095941
2025-08-31 1.161032 1.344332 1.590660 1.974025 2.632663 3.995751 9.780809
2025-09-07 1.154263 1.340172 1.591769 1.987521 2.680054 4.168943 11.581623