Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.239882 2.369698 2.510351 2.675493 2.866019 3.081460 3.347340
2025-05-04 2.094313 2.259337 2.446296 2.677592 2.961903 3.308756 3.779726
2025-05-11 1.994326 2.180921 2.399144 2.679861 3.042607 3.514464 4.214352
2025-05-18 1.887622 2.082182 2.314442 2.621104 3.031402 3.590846 4.480850
2025-05-25 1.821046 2.025145 2.273597 2.610077 3.076336 3.744480 4.895237
2025-06-01 1.762260 1.972799 2.233246 2.593604 3.108405 3.880211 5.316997
2025-06-08 1.709328 1.924084 2.193343 2.572758 3.129450 3.999188 5.746599
2025-06-15 1.680156 1.903296 2.187490 2.596739 3.217138 4.238826 6.521332
2025-06-22 1.614722 1.832723 2.111712 2.516192 3.135759 4.173878 6.581194
2025-06-29 1.582238 1.803426 2.089483 2.510434 3.170384 4.320997 7.243215
2025-07-06 1.535480 1.753591 2.037069 2.457199 3.123313 4.307882 7.465377
2025-07-13 1.522284 1.747280 2.043437 2.490504 3.220694 4.591316 8.812817
2025-07-20 1.517192 1.752513 2.067295 2.553966 3.381150 5.058115 11.675306
2025-07-27 1.492896 1.730760 2.051939 2.555565 3.432602 5.301320 14.295937
2025-08-03 1.470404 1.710522 2.037617 2.557476 3.484465 5.562552 18.446276
2025-08-10 1.433064 1.668746 1.990624 2.504229 3.426566 5.526858 19.816804
2025-08-17 1.410422 1.646515 1.971066 2.494204 3.450966 5.721905 26.569116
2025-08-24 1.387700 1.623455 1.949350 2.479251 3.463969 5.890856 38.684910
2025-08-31 1.365111 1.599925 1.926058 2.460323 3.467016 6.033328 67.610868
2025-09-07 1.354904 1.593274 1.927260 2.482085 3.555507 6.482895 NaN
2025-09-14 1.319799 1.550831 1.873898 2.408892 3.437728 6.199628 NaN
2025-09-21 1.304156 1.535483 1.860653 2.403650 3.464761 6.436938 NaN
2025-09-28 1.277780 1.504441 1.823056 2.355127 3.394952 6.308001 NaN