Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.417449 2.567265 2.731562 2.927215 3.156823 3.421758 3.756986
2025-09-07 2.270024 2.459988 2.678537 2.954150 3.301464 3.739038 4.360212
2025-09-14 2.103802 2.304015 2.540305 2.847959 3.252269 3.790800 4.619200
2025-09-21 2.018742 2.233224 2.492686 2.841487 3.320400 3.998770 5.148283
2025-09-28 1.927847 2.146931 2.416387 2.786690 3.311294 4.089593 5.517277
2025-10-05 1.899575 2.135039 2.431436 2.851872 3.476002 4.472260 6.572550
2025-10-12 1.885507 2.138983 2.465698 2.944881 3.693940 4.998662 8.339733
2025-10-19 1.835563 2.092962 2.429128 2.931650 3.741628 5.232763 9.648116
2025-10-26 1.797314 2.059900 2.407452 2.937343 3.819811 5.549061 11.758296
2025-11-02 1.741326 2.000517 2.345734 2.877026 3.776028 5.594575 12.914262
2025-11-09 1.701393 1.960918 2.309509 2.852886 3.792830 5.782998 15.474810
2025-11-16 1.667818 1.928432 2.281485 2.839058 3.826059 6.022885 19.919099
2025-11-23 1.633863 1.895497 2.253097 2.825700 3.864864 6.312760 29.899984
2025-11-30 1.612763 1.879075 2.247280 2.847652 3.974483 6.855032 155.736369
2025-12-07 1.559167 1.815904 2.170488 2.747667 3.827496 6.565681 101.961889
2025-12-14 1.534193 1.791744 2.150098 2.740356 3.869746 6.904354 NaN
2025-12-21 1.498780 1.751937 2.105020 2.688840 3.814218 6.898574 NaN
2025-12-28 1.494715 1.755788 2.124797 2.748341 4.002857 7.889078 NaN
2026-01-04 1.496791 1.768204 2.157820 2.833415 4.267037 9.562092 NaN
2026-01-11 1.475257 1.746117 2.137005 2.820921 4.300285 10.168890 NaN
2026-01-18 1.458903 1.730973 2.126261 2.825906 4.377845 11.196047 NaN
2026-01-25 1.429537 1.696279 2.083920 2.770316 4.294269 11.015952 NaN
2026-02-01 1.408920 1.673825 2.060085 2.747991 4.294975 11.514475 NaN