Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.295698 2.414355 2.541300 2.688229 2.854949 3.039931 3.263161
2025-04-06 2.083111 2.238260 2.412595 2.626181 2.885589 3.197443 3.612902
2025-04-13 1.956416 2.130145 2.331502 2.587674 2.914018 3.330750 3.933046
2025-04-20 1.896270 2.089071 2.318880 2.621760 3.026113 3.575963 4.447531
2025-04-27 1.865271 2.077648 2.337620 2.692384 3.189431 3.913627 5.197337
2025-05-04 1.811045 2.032328 2.308196 2.694020 3.254124 4.115303 5.795985
2025-05-11 1.764626 1.993074 2.282473 2.696244 3.317008 4.322796 6.498454
2025-05-18 1.700340 1.927215 2.217151 2.636804 3.278310 4.350489 6.828145
2025-05-25 1.660286 1.890476 2.188060 2.625893 3.312520 4.511530 7.576272
2025-06-01 1.622065 1.854158 2.157169 2.609357 3.334736 4.653616 8.387724
2025-06-08 1.585378 1.818192 2.124699 2.587720 3.345394 4.774564 9.257949
2025-06-15 1.568550 1.807684 2.126464 2.617008 3.444847 5.102202 11.396281
2025-06-22 1.524996 1.760767 2.076572 2.566045 3.402241 5.117976 12.250439
2025-06-29 1.482286 1.713826 2.025075 2.510092 3.346389 5.095242 12.938011
2025-07-06 1.448768 1.678285 1.988345 2.475159 3.325592 5.153348 14.397109
2025-07-13 1.437266 1.672220 1.993236 2.506086 3.430026 5.554240 21.229409
2025-07-20 1.435802 1.679686 2.017718 2.570020 3.606855 6.234074 66.802126
2025-07-27 1.417108 1.662472 2.005083 2.571499 3.658737 6.573604 NaN
2025-08-03 1.399626 1.646355 1.993320 2.573509 3.711904 6.948786 NaN
2025-08-10 1.368454 1.610143 1.950272 2.519720 3.639681 6.844979 NaN
2025-08-17 1.350076 1.591568 1.933161 2.509832 3.662663 7.118116 NaN
2025-08-24 1.331284 1.571916 1.913741 2.494837 3.672750 7.350960 NaN
2025-08-31 1.312191 1.551371 1.892308 2.475200 3.670384 7.535777 NaN