Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-04-05 0.200920 0.214512 0.228556 0.244159 0.261026 0.278721 0.298708
2026-04-12 0.163304 0.181510 0.201221 0.224196 0.250304 0.279123 0.313441
2026-04-19 0.136604 0.157017 0.180003 0.207912 0.241025 0.279236 0.326920
2026-04-26 0.119764 0.141728 0.167322 0.199536 0.239257 0.286968 0.349114
2026-05-03 0.107898 0.130992 0.158729 0.194776 0.240793 0.298118 0.375798
2026-05-10 0.098539 0.122360 0.151746 0.191049 0.242817 0.309488 0.403180
2026-05-17 0.091551 0.116027 0.146967 0.189449 0.247045 0.323558 0.434832
2026-05-24 0.084358 0.108833 0.140436 0.184846 0.246622 0.330999 0.457574
2026-05-31 0.078417 0.102829 0.134974 0.181121 0.246866 0.339030 0.481398
2026-06-07 0.072767 0.096823 0.129060 0.176243 0.244941 0.343566 0.500095
2026-06-14 0.068756 0.092789 0.125551 0.174418 0.247103 0.353945 0.528157
2026-06-21 0.065902 0.090173 0.123818 0.174943 0.252614 0.369497 0.565321
2026-06-28 0.062323 0.086388 0.120274 0.172678 0.253909 0.378928 0.593927
2026-07-05 0.059333 0.083290 0.117546 0.171449 0.256681 0.390827 0.627653
2026-07-12 0.055502 0.078761 0.112463 0.166291 0.252888 0.391871 0.642961
2026-07-19 0.052647 0.075533 0.109141 0.163642 0.252883 0.399014 0.669392
2026-07-26 0.050277 0.072908 0.106583 0.162015 0.254377 0.408670 0.701051
2026-08-02 0.048044 0.070379 0.104030 0.160217 0.255413 0.417521 0.731896
2026-08-09 0.046254 0.068441 0.102283 0.159598 0.258342 0.429774 0.770112
2026-08-16 0.043961 0.065611 0.098987 0.156210 0.256235 0.432842 0.790738
2026-08-23 0.041938 0.063119 0.096112 0.153361 0.254866 0.437089 0.813974
2026-08-30 0.039822 0.060390 0.092730 0.149461 0.251361 0.437099 0.828533
2026-09-06 0.038343 0.058624 0.090839 0.148021 0.252195 0.445263 0.860637