Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.984791 2.081683 2.184705 2.303125 2.436431 2.583018 2.758072
2025-07-13 1.893280 2.021309 2.163057 2.333706 2.536573 2.774205 3.080471
2025-07-20 1.847819 1.999952 2.173825 2.391249 2.662177 2.998462 3.465840
2025-07-27 1.785689 1.951194 2.144643 2.393352 2.714562 3.132191 3.751442
2025-08-03 1.735374 1.911248 2.120729 2.396565 2.764350 3.263610 4.052885
2025-08-10 1.663933 1.840982 2.054202 2.338993 2.726194 3.266347 4.157490
2025-08-17 1.620439 1.802245 2.023985 2.325116 2.744140 3.348538 4.401749
2025-08-24 1.582577 1.768321 1.997444 2.313339 2.762475 3.431368 4.663143
2025-08-31 1.549261 1.738376 1.974080 2.303612 2.781743 3.516280 4.947589
2025-09-07 1.528647 1.723361 1.968893 2.317713 2.836020 3.662802 5.395433
2025-09-14 1.479454 1.670002 1.911034 2.254949 2.769317 3.598524 5.373737
2025-09-21 1.455110 1.647820 1.893553 2.248130 2.787583 3.682034 5.713405
2025-09-28 1.417358 1.608046 1.852330 2.207127 2.752385 3.671914 5.839479
2025-10-05 1.407507 1.604156 1.858980 2.235172 2.828301 3.873841 6.608386
2025-10-12 1.406791 1.612009 1.881597 2.287552 2.948381 4.182726 7.946766
2025-10-19 1.388995 1.596462 1.871128 2.289476 2.983432 4.326750 8.886280
2025-10-26 1.372600 1.582215 1.861801 2.292397 3.020108 4.481142 10.085533
2025-11-02 1.339272 1.544300 1.817998 2.240053 2.954847 4.396048 10.009022
2025-11-09 1.320134 1.525143 1.800167 2.227416 2.960203 4.475928 10.978285
2025-11-16 1.302533 1.507618 1.784072 2.216684 2.968077 4.563395 12.196873
2025-11-23 1.286336 1.491601 1.769611 2.207816 2.978603 4.659628 13.784362
2025-11-30 1.277529 1.485397 1.768920 2.220670 3.030663 4.873037 17.540593
2025-12-07 1.248204 1.450405 1.725754 2.163391 2.944607 4.704066 16.087687