Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.031355 2.134199 2.243997 2.370787 2.514272 2.672998 2.863873
2025-06-15 1.924704 2.058796 2.207955 2.388526 2.604643 2.859870 3.192228
2025-06-22 1.801132 1.946621 2.112396 2.318939 2.575131 2.891303 3.327368
2025-06-29 1.736707 1.894884 2.079195 2.315249 2.618599 3.010449 3.586134
2025-07-06 1.662217 1.825135 2.017862 2.269437 2.600990 3.043972 3.727717
2025-07-13 1.634053 1.808324 2.018408 2.299390 2.682160 3.217673 4.105408
2025-07-20 1.621687 1.809166 2.039656 2.356032 2.803045 3.462651 4.658055
2025-07-27 1.588249 1.781490 2.022254 2.358732 2.846721 3.596014 5.055170
2025-08-03 1.558393 1.756582 2.006527 2.361706 2.889734 3.732898 5.504335
2025-08-10 1.508388 1.703811 1.951567 2.306219 2.839318 3.705997 5.594855
2025-08-17 1.477715 1.674740 1.926621 2.291421 2.849693 3.784739 5.956879
2025-08-24 1.449740 1.648062 1.903558 2.277645 2.859925 3.863846 6.355040
2025-08-31 1.420576 1.619897 1.878689 2.261857 2.868908 3.948536 6.837933
2025-09-07 1.405469 1.609482 1.877234 2.279920 2.934215 4.152623 7.840124
2025-09-14 1.364085 1.562926 1.824247 2.218045 2.859995 4.062722 7.766786
2025-09-21 1.344917 1.545428 1.810900 2.215339 2.886622 4.188107 8.634456
2025-09-28 1.314106 1.511483 1.773455 2.174031 2.843005 4.155584 8.816981
2025-10-05 1.307225 1.509463 1.780605 2.201505 2.922646 4.411856 10.774143
2025-10-12 1.308081 1.517801 1.802538 2.253092 3.051278 4.820297 15.306559
2025-10-19 1.294098 1.505364 1.794090 2.255616 3.088193 5.009426 19.640502
2025-10-26 1.280881 1.493585 1.786120 2.258358 3.125631 5.211434 27.726936
2025-11-02 1.253003 1.460907 1.746754 2.207975 3.054274 5.085440 26.560413
2025-11-09 1.236716 1.444014 1.730116 2.194523 3.056108 5.178967 35.671607