Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.343035 2.485853 2.642456 2.828942 3.047826 3.300481 3.620399
2025-10-19 2.184749 2.357338 2.554400 2.800675 3.107545 3.488783 4.019955
2025-10-26 2.093814 2.285420 2.510460 2.801776 3.181837 3.683420 4.445163
2025-11-02 2.015687 2.218048 2.460551 2.782709 3.218070 3.821414 4.809576
2025-11-09 1.937233 2.143211 2.393405 2.731730 3.200447 3.873810 5.044127
2025-11-16 1.881391 2.091988 2.351087 2.707510 3.213589 3.967920 5.366496
2025-11-23 1.837151 2.052279 2.320095 2.694479 3.238758 4.080332 5.751459
2025-11-30 1.806966 2.028329 2.307346 2.704142 3.296093 4.250317 6.310943
2025-12-07 1.730176 1.941982 2.208901 2.588385 3.154274 4.065850 6.031518
2025-12-14 1.707564 1.924288 2.200245 2.598330 3.205402 4.220697 6.596405
2025-12-21 1.671470 1.887791 2.164827 2.567754 3.190142 4.254309 6.875542
2025-12-28 1.677155 1.905546 2.202641 2.644594 3.352383 4.643694 8.404272
2026-01-04 1.680432 1.923593 2.246216 2.740418 3.571564 5.238657 11.844399
2026-01-11 1.644677 1.887736 2.212549 2.715535 3.577436 5.374325 13.720985
2026-01-18 1.620204 1.865934 2.197302 2.717596 3.631165 5.638580 17.833807
2026-01-25 1.591776 1.837617 2.171296 2.700513 3.646693 5.812172 23.151641
2026-02-01 1.556208 1.798428 2.128120 2.653315 3.599835 5.806589 26.517374
2026-02-08 1.529943 1.771233 2.101251 2.630969 3.599045 5.932086 37.908893
2026-02-15 1.508155 1.749539 2.081504 2.618995 3.617310 6.121022 91.168005
2026-02-22 1.493551 1.737292 2.074983 2.628236 3.679111 6.471379 NaN
2026-03-01 1.446658 1.679210 1.999552 2.519581 3.490216 5.954860 184.571074
2026-03-08 1.434469 1.669205 1.994759 2.529022 3.547107 6.275576 NaN
2026-03-15 1.412354 1.644836 1.968000 2.500292 3.521837 6.312455 NaN