HBAR Price Forecast and Analysis

Description

This analysis provides a forecast of HBAR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
Base Case: The average forecasted price.
Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

	Bear_0.997	Bear_0.95	Bear_0.68	Base	Bull_0.68	Bull_0.95	Bull_0.997
2024-09-08	0.033502	0.037901	0.042770	0.048577	0.055340	0.062995	0.072359
2024-09-15	0.026404	0.032190	0.039191	0.048365	0.060189	0.075077	0.095497
2024-09-22	0.022266	0.028551	0.036632	0.047944	0.063625	0.084982	0.116949
2024-09-29	0.019059	0.025389	0.033916	0.046479	0.064928	0.091701	0.134780
2024-10-06	0.017914	0.024732	0.034325	0.049169	0.072228	0.107861	0.169558
2024-10-13	0.015622	0.022135	0.031599	0.046786	0.071397	0.111305	0.184474
2024-10-20	0.014128	0.020509	0.030065	0.045938	0.072726	0.118248	0.206572
2024-10-27	0.012819	0.019010	0.028531	0.044842	0.073396	0.124044	0.227628
2024-11-03	0.012162	0.018442	0.028373	0.045950	0.077950	0.137408	0.266278
2024-11-10	0.011590	0.017943	0.028256	0.047081	0.082664	0.151822	0.310543
2024-11-17	0.010864	0.017121	0.027507	0.046981	0.085021	0.161961	0.347886
2024-11-24	0.010100	0.016165	0.026434	0.046150	0.085807	0.168958	0.379598
2024-12-01	0.009459	0.015419	0.025746	0.046141	0.088633	0.181708	0.431626
2024-12-08	0.008839	0.014664	0.024989	0.045950	0.091166	0.194638	0.489440
2024-12-15	0.008260	0.013928	0.024187	0.045554	0.093181	0.206802	0.549662
2024-12-22	0.007621	0.013026	0.022982	0.044174	0.092750	0.212874	0.594078
2024-12-29	0.007506	0.013078	0.023601	0.046707	0.101851	0.245585	0.737267
2025-01-05	0.006872	0.012100	0.022108	0.044464	0.099028	0.245517	0.768624
2025-01-12	0.006450	0.011494	0.021306	0.043665	0.099697	0.255495	0.841336
2025-01-19	0.006042	0.010886	0.020445	0.042633	0.099602	0.263268	0.909486
2025-01-26	0.005864	0.010718	0.020476	0.043676	0.105188	0.289774	1.068501
2025-02-02	0.005699	0.010560	0.020514	0.044741	0.111043	0.318858	1.256806
2025-02-09	0.005447	0.010208	0.020101	0.044648	0.113611	0.337796	1.409559

Bear_0.997

Bear_0.95

Bear_0.68

Base

Bull_0.68

Bull_0.95

Bull_0.997

2024-09-08

0.033502

0.037901

0.042770

0.048577

0.055340

0.062995

0.072359

2024-09-15

0.026404

0.032190

0.039191

0.048365

0.060189

0.075077

0.095497

2024-09-22

0.022266

0.028551

0.036632

0.047944

0.063625

0.084982

0.116949

2024-09-29

0.019059

0.025389

0.033916

0.046479

0.064928

0.091701

0.134780

2024-10-06

0.017914

0.024732

0.034325

0.049169

0.072228

0.107861

0.169558

2024-10-13

0.015622

0.022135

0.031599

0.046786

0.071397

0.111305

0.184474

2024-10-20

0.014128

0.020509

0.030065

0.045938

0.072726

0.118248

0.206572

2024-10-27

0.012819

0.019010

0.028531

0.044842

0.073396

0.124044

0.227628

2024-11-03

0.012162

0.018442

0.028373

0.045950

0.077950

0.137408

0.266278

2024-11-10

0.011590

0.017943

0.028256

0.047081

0.082664

0.151822

0.310543

2024-11-17

0.010864

0.017121

0.027507

0.046981

0.085021

0.161961

0.347886

2024-11-24

0.010100

0.016165

0.026434

0.046150

0.085807

0.168958

0.379598

2024-12-01

0.009459

0.015419

0.025746

0.046141

0.088633

0.181708

0.431626

2024-12-08

0.008839

0.014664

0.024989

0.045950

0.091166

0.194638

0.489440

2024-12-15

0.008260

0.013928

0.024187

0.045554

0.093181

0.206802

0.549662

2024-12-22

0.007621

0.013026

0.022982

0.044174

0.092750

0.212874

0.594078

2024-12-29

0.007506

0.013078

0.023601

0.046707

0.101851

0.245585

0.737267

2025-01-05

0.006872

0.012100

0.022108

0.044464

0.099028

0.245517

0.768624

2025-01-12

0.006450

0.011494

0.021306

0.043665

0.099697

0.255495

0.841336

2025-01-19

0.006042

0.010886

0.020445

0.042633

0.099602

0.263268

0.909486

2025-01-26

0.005864

0.010718

0.020476

0.043676

0.105188

0.289774

1.068501

2025-02-02

0.005699

0.010560

0.020514

0.044741

0.111043

0.318858

1.256806

2025-02-09

0.005447

0.010208

0.020101

0.044648

0.113611

0.337796

1.409559