Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.051632 0.058936 0.066515 0.074936 0.084001 0.093436 0.103971
2025-04-06 0.040885 0.051700 0.063609 0.077547 0.093274 0.110337 0.130122
2025-04-13 0.032350 0.044905 0.059468 0.077265 0.098101 0.121424 0.149212
2025-04-20 0.029049 0.043382 0.060679 0.082488 0.108688 0.138639 0.174965
2025-04-27 0.023486 0.038186 0.056739 0.080938 0.110803 0.145681 0.188742
2025-05-04 0.020785 0.036251 0.056486 0.083577 0.117690 0.158155 0.208753
2025-05-11 0.017370 0.032855 0.053951 0.083006 0.120376 0.165425 0.222483
2025-05-18 0.015550 0.031468 0.053881 0.085439 0.126692 0.177026 0.241388
2025-05-25 0.013806 0.029952 0.053447 0.087249 0.132124 0.187499 0.258932
2025-06-01 0.011221 0.026740 0.050322 0.085187 0.132365 0.191385 0.268330
2025-06-08 0.009058 0.023874 0.047422 0.083196 0.132506 0.195005 0.277297
2025-06-15 0.008237 0.023234 0.047777 0.085709 0.138594 0.206160 0.295655
2025-06-22 0.007204 0.022153 0.047518 0.087538 0.144091 0.217016 0.314280
2025-06-29 0.006552 0.021729 0.048288 0.090910 0.151805 0.230915 0.337009
2025-07-06 0.005353 0.019950 0.046699 0.090698 0.154542 0.238351 0.351608
2025-07-13 0.005257 0.020552 0.049095 0.096492 0.165674 0.256847 0.380406
2025-07-20 0.004081 0.018420 0.046643 0.094784 0.166214 0.261368 0.391328
2025-07-27 0.003669 0.018043 0.047207 0.097698 0.173283 0.274555 0.413441
2025-08-03 0.002903 0.016524 0.045575 0.097068 0.175227 0.280883 0.426700
2025-08-10 0.002583 0.016165 0.046041 0.099752 0.181948 0.293641 0.448357
2025-08-17 0.002236 0.015621 0.046101 0.101749 0.187662 0.305056 0.468303
2025-08-24 0.001604 0.013873 0.043637 0.099475 0.187005 0.307749 0.476769
2025-08-31 0.001109 0.012290 0.041310 0.097278 0.186348 0.310363 0.485081