Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.058171 0.066048 0.074156 0.083092 0.092635 0.102493 0.113416
2025-06-15 0.045441 0.057123 0.069824 0.084509 0.100877 0.118432 0.138555
2025-06-22 0.036813 0.050566 0.066224 0.085020 0.106649 0.130473 0.158420
2025-06-29 0.032804 0.048407 0.066821 0.089554 0.116316 0.146339 0.182108
2025-07-06 0.027667 0.044101 0.064242 0.089813 0.120585 0.155710 0.198156
2025-07-13 0.026686 0.044799 0.067553 0.096955 0.132818 0.174180 0.224585
2025-07-20 0.021744 0.039701 0.063157 0.094292 0.133037 0.178400 0.234348
2025-07-27 0.020167 0.038990 0.064220 0.098289 0.141215 0.191937 0.254947
2025-08-03 0.017681 0.036685 0.062962 0.099162 0.145425 0.200656 0.269818
2025-08-10 0.015404 0.034411 0.061540 0.099657 0.149038 0.208571 0.283676
2025-08-17 0.012965 0.031578 0.059116 0.098650 0.150617 0.213910 0.294381
2025-08-24 0.010042 0.027522 0.054633 0.094619 0.148122 0.214090 0.298732
2025-08-31 0.007666 0.024148 0.051102 0.092016 0.147773 0.217378 0.307503
2025-09-07 0.006497 0.022824 0.050607 0.093654 0.153068 0.227869 0.325318
2025-09-14 0.005288 0.021164 0.049428 0.094214 0.156875 0.236467 0.340822
2025-09-21 0.004970 0.021347 0.051196 0.099031 0.166409 0.252364 0.365411
2025-09-28 0.003980 0.019770 0.049926 0.099307 0.169745 0.260332 0.380153
2025-10-05 0.004156 0.021060 0.053541 0.106879 0.183083 0.281186 0.411042
2025-10-12 0.002938 0.018476 0.050305 0.104057 0.182081 0.283532 0.418761
2025-10-19 0.002721 0.018552 0.051728 0.108291 0.190832 0.298511 0.442368
2025-10-26 0.002182 0.017502 0.051031 0.109216 0.194948 0.307459 0.458393
2025-11-02 0.001692 0.016392 0.050121 0.109740 0.198463 0.315604 0.473402
2025-11-09 0.001173 0.014864 0.048265 0.108674 0.199660 0.320666 0.484475