Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.712414 3.276747 3.910589 4.672442 5.560324 6.559335 7.765244
2025-04-13 1.870606 2.569348 3.441606 4.598952 6.081228 7.901808 10.290978
2025-04-20 1.473597 2.254945 3.319416 4.848873 6.958310 9.729108 13.600325
2025-04-27 1.181258 1.990112 3.179869 5.010201 7.696576 11.425796 16.907180
2025-05-04 0.992961 1.822272 3.126988 5.255697 8.548562 13.334764 20.668545
2025-05-11 0.797774 1.592418 2.926860 5.229515 8.971351 14.646260 23.678527
2025-05-18 0.621265 1.349089 2.652810 5.028464 9.075504 15.464887 26.002010
2025-05-25 0.479955 1.133587 2.381204 4.777800 9.048531 16.051093 27.988190
2025-06-01 0.397615 1.013054 2.256155 4.757186 9.391073 17.239067 30.998067
2025-06-08 0.336608 0.921887 2.168799 4.787730 9.816733 18.588176 34.360086
2025-06-15 0.282420 0.831746 2.065693 4.768969 10.142967 19.784596 37.544009
2025-06-22 0.222648 0.711015 1.873877 4.540736 10.043223 20.216218 39.436851
2025-06-29 0.187073 0.643863 1.790983 4.532453 10.379305 21.479007 42.922607
2025-07-06 0.155719 0.578813 1.700246 4.493280 10.648727 22.642131 46.320911
2025-07-13 0.143718 0.567515 1.738937 4.750480 11.555234 25.076738 52.211297
2025-07-20 0.128799 0.542468 1.737603 4.913513 12.277463 27.208636 57.676034
2025-07-27 0.118706 0.530335 1.768166 5.156602 13.195915 29.789962 64.150817
2025-08-03 0.100631 0.483892 1.694730 5.131463 13.515142 31.195172 68.452592
2025-08-10 0.080561 0.421774 1.562211 4.933918 13.418076 31.740193 71.103926
2025-08-17 0.063058 0.361634 1.420637 4.687447 13.174595 31.953740 73.099159
2025-08-24 0.053543 0.331251 1.365396 4.667199 13.468028 33.321572 77.502683
2025-08-31 0.046388 0.308441 1.329930 4.697250 13.887232 34.989092 82.618362
2025-09-07 0.039469 0.283327 1.280562 4.678801 14.181469 36.400417 87.280470