Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 5.197885 6.176960 7.263622 8.555393 10.045190 11.705400 13.691368
2025-06-15 3.805325 5.070240 6.615220 8.625673 11.155444 14.214435 18.172386
2025-06-22 2.764185 4.074237 5.813322 8.257290 11.563637 15.836409 21.722472
2025-06-29 2.171867 3.496940 5.387227 8.222629 12.296772 17.855667 25.909743
2025-07-06 1.744757 3.045245 5.024928 8.171228 12.936244 19.748783 30.051404
2025-07-13 1.544346 2.888923 5.051910 8.660232 14.367733 22.844954 36.116559
2025-07-20 1.340176 2.679812 4.951210 8.917012 15.448357 25.495174 41.727665
2025-07-27 1.201299 2.553290 4.957634 9.330531 16.794681 28.635077 48.297699
2025-08-03 1.024327 2.319175 4.737411 9.321587 17.432522 30.698728 53.334195
2025-08-10 0.838271 2.027483 4.363839 8.984492 17.462622 31.761614 56.826340
2025-08-17 0.690484 1.782188 4.035529 8.677684 17.495623 32.805383 60.329690
2025-08-24 0.598042 1.637537 3.880665 8.672918 18.058609 34.773030 65.491207
2025-08-31 0.522241 1.517729 3.763453 8.736908 18.773765 37.094620 71.489145
2025-09-07 0.450074 1.390471 3.609954 8.706522 19.304044 39.127335 77.130476
2025-09-14 0.364556 1.207097 3.299023 8.299674 19.045377 39.689658 80.176570
2025-09-21 0.314324 1.106540 3.162740 8.252063 19.501297 41.609974 85.811412
2025-09-28 0.271151 1.014781 3.031425 8.195880 19.928318 43.498010 91.498814
2025-10-05 0.258684 1.013649 3.129028 8.684411 21.561114 47.846596 102.100747
2025-10-12 0.237115 0.977992 3.130316 8.941162 22.708656 51.304905 111.190805
2025-10-19 0.223588 0.965826 3.193003 9.355415 24.241296 55.635887 122.221789
2025-10-26 0.196597 0.899198 3.092778 9.346360 24.810320 58.028323 129.561418
2025-11-02 0.163350 0.798964 2.876989 9.008443 24.581320 58.737864 133.567593
2025-11-09 0.136096 0.712098 2.683537 8.700902 24.388566 59.500347 137.711527