Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 3.532664 4.223409 4.994487 5.916265 6.985290 8.183020 9.623397
2025-08-17 2.425666 3.272585 4.319058 5.695967 7.447342 9.586881 12.382886
2025-08-24 1.837440 2.742998 3.959745 5.689500 8.055974 11.146688 15.448365
2025-08-31 1.453297 2.370283 3.694865 5.705552 8.628292 12.659964 18.563593
2025-09-07 1.159817 2.051447 3.426693 5.639955 9.032919 13.939808 21.443645
2025-09-14 0.899580 1.721684 3.072216 5.369427 9.070379 14.661068 23.555590
2025-09-21 0.745835 1.532830 2.900657 5.343680 9.453375 15.898698 26.504460
2025-09-28 0.624042 1.373052 2.746325 5.313766 9.808969 17.105190 29.484324
2025-10-05 0.575285 1.340642 2.807919 5.656590 10.809869 19.410148 34.365472
2025-10-12 0.512608 1.266589 2.778690 5.827258 11.523612 21.293732 38.696716
2025-10-19 0.467184 1.219201 2.791649 6.073497 12.388914 23.491395 43.698709
2025-10-26 0.404150 1.118838 2.681548 6.065002 12.780620 24.894722 47.442308
2025-11-02 0.330898 0.979551 2.471009 5.834843 12.743344 25.561656 50.007783
2025-11-09 0.271860 0.860828 2.284478 5.627015 12.723842 26.255185 52.671349
2025-11-16 0.235490 0.792321 2.199730 5.623561 13.107771 27.719689 56.827449
2025-11-23 0.205620 0.734148 2.129100 5.640338 13.531473 29.287000 61.275391
2025-11-30 0.176151 0.669094 2.029591 5.575669 13.772622 30.512744 65.154665
2025-12-07 0.142739 0.581709 1.855720 5.307952 13.539952 30.773509 67.186489
2025-12-14 0.123820 0.536128 1.785147 5.282489 13.841896 32.133977 71.454661
2025-12-21 0.107433 0.494267 1.716994 5.252885 14.129159 33.481416 75.778383
2025-12-28 0.104044 0.499424 1.786556 5.592250 15.313261 36.797735 84.287568
2026-01-04 0.095957 0.484193 1.792360 5.761204 16.104349 39.324350 91.318022
2026-01-11 0.090428 0.477669 1.824028 6.004982 17.099115 42.356327 99.567373