Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.256228 3.911214 4.644203 5.522343 6.542679 7.687660 9.066430
2025-05-04 2.482002 3.364626 4.456791 5.894889 7.724343 9.958371 12.875296
2025-05-11 1.867785 2.812675 4.086891 5.902448 8.389127 11.637327 16.155124
2025-05-18 1.395831 2.313371 3.650137 5.691774 8.671984 12.793238 18.835052
2025-05-25 1.051394 1.906028 3.243273 5.418286 8.778344 13.662760 21.156346
2025-06-01 0.851848 1.673736 3.043750 5.397684 9.215344 15.004381 24.229772
2025-06-08 0.709048 1.501865 2.902873 5.433077 9.719391 16.466748 27.583402
2025-06-15 0.588505 1.341077 2.747811 5.411374 10.111588 17.771287 30.782780
2025-06-22 0.462435 1.138573 2.478958 5.143806 10.045998 18.318795 32.807672
2025-06-29 0.387856 1.024115 2.353455 5.112507 10.375247 19.528056 35.982564
2025-07-06 0.326439 0.923339 2.235860 5.075028 10.680441 20.709926 39.186747
2025-07-13 0.304387 0.909918 2.296705 5.395804 11.681050 23.176698 44.756501
2025-07-20 0.273062 0.867756 2.291826 5.588677 12.471064 25.357716 50.036667
2025-07-27 0.250595 0.843561 2.323777 5.864228 13.453320 27.969562 56.275759
2025-08-03 0.213562 0.769087 2.224379 5.838061 13.820968 29.463069 60.589908
2025-08-10 0.173171 0.672351 2.051429 5.618449 13.758460 30.125285 63.404950
2025-08-17 0.137880 0.579383 1.868299 5.344528 13.543264 30.461993 65.614899
2025-08-24 0.118100 0.531072 1.794375 5.322986 13.876037 31.907516 70.040765
2025-08-31 0.103065 0.494471 1.745843 5.357548 14.336976 33.644257 75.143129
2025-09-07 0.088558 0.454629 1.679666 5.335976 14.663594 35.122642 79.819349
2025-09-14 0.070367 0.392515 1.531821 5.071643 14.382598 35.289912 81.847100
2025-09-21 0.060276 0.360482 1.471919 5.040714 14.664037 36.685716 86.482450
2025-09-28 0.051547 0.330806 1.413140 5.003693 14.925098 38.052857 91.137162