Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 3.148047 3.791143 4.511332 5.374510 6.377661 7.503331 8.858535
2025-04-06 2.222314 3.034612 4.043194 5.374615 7.071444 9.145877 11.855962
2025-04-13 1.640322 2.499371 3.664726 5.332301 7.623067 10.620659 14.793275
2025-04-20 1.354627 2.265914 3.597383 5.632894 8.602546 12.702077 18.695625
2025-04-27 1.122129 2.044571 3.485888 5.822406 9.414652 14.606361 22.518200
2025-05-04 0.966506 1.902374 3.454847 6.104318 10.366184 16.770804 26.877652
2025-05-11 0.790920 1.683191 3.254533 6.075247 10.815898 18.211171 30.273512
2025-05-18 0.625030 1.440667 2.966411 5.846362 10.898971 19.071086 32.829504
2025-05-25 0.488779 1.221062 2.675731 5.560114 10.835043 19.666678 34.988006
2025-06-01 0.409230 1.099019 2.544331 5.536276 11.207652 20.987525 38.390295
2025-06-08 0.349664 1.006255 2.453086 5.570874 11.679357 22.500788 42.205302
2025-06-15 0.296470 0.914679 2.346999 5.557773 12.053889 23.864973 45.850609
2025-06-22 0.234616 0.785567 2.138563 5.311752 11.969719 24.433127 48.209302
2025-06-29 0.198431 0.714831 2.049817 5.306422 12.356810 25.887104 52.240606
2025-07-06 0.166281 0.645624 1.950896 5.262662 12.657932 27.200329 56.104442
2025-07-13 0.154468 0.635428 1.998005 5.559144 13.697347 29.992715 62.868333
2025-07-20 0.139256 0.609544 1.999198 5.746244 14.518786 32.417300 69.088943
2025-07-27 0.129047 0.597736 2.036287 6.024865 15.565144 35.354921 76.454347
2025-08-03 0.109996 0.547362 1.955218 5.996089 15.919726 36.925669 81.275934
2025-08-10 0.088543 0.479008 1.806587 5.769791 15.795880 37.504175 84.184626
2025-08-17 0.069676 0.412347 1.646886 5.486808 15.503759 37.701491 86.334712
2025-08-24 0.059444 0.378868 1.585177 5.463242 15.830079 39.228822 91.252723
2025-08-31 0.051732 0.353760 1.545863 5.497444 16.301138 41.098872 96.976485