Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 1.202665e-01 0.148104 0.178461 0.213736 0.253313 0.296079 0.345516
2025-04-06 8.138215e-02 0.117092 0.159745 0.213228 0.277316 0.350557 0.439494
2025-04-13 5.779060e-02 0.097413 0.149087 0.218411 0.306147 0.410907 0.542884
2025-04-20 4.205413e-02 0.083411 0.142163 0.225936 0.336989 0.474390 0.652529
2025-04-27 3.041124e-02 0.071720 0.135674 0.232206 0.365543 0.535587 0.761339
2025-05-04 2.039899e-02 0.059127 0.125134 0.230822 0.382839 0.582365 0.853138
2025-05-11 1.430503e-02 0.051092 0.119739 0.235490 0.407712 0.639082 0.958564
2025-05-18 9.060635e-03 0.042152 0.110801 0.233229 0.421888 0.681349 1.045797
2025-05-25 4.610279e-03 0.031773 0.096637 0.220472 0.419194 0.699757 1.101293
2025-06-01 2.732236e-03 0.027029 0.092027 0.222532 0.438034 0.747806 1.196766
2025-06-08 1.230774e-03 0.021304 0.083682 0.216813 0.444075 0.777468 1.267483
2025-06-15 7.847709e-04 0.019962 0.084978 0.228409 0.477540 0.846843 1.393497
2025-06-22 2.853295e-04 0.016446 0.080091 0.228184 0.492473 0.890548 1.486153
2025-06-29 6.994584e-05 0.013649 0.076129 0.229160 0.509198 0.937151 1.583647
2025-07-06 1.101644e-05 0.012018 0.074961 0.235497 0.534948 0.997574 1.701458
2025-07-13 1.862139e-07 0.010862 0.074877 0.243944 0.564423 1.064015 1.828615
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009648 0.074153 0.250862 0.591390 1.127087 1.951783
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007721 0.069935 0.249597 0.603869 1.168214 2.044013
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006670 0.068626 0.254624 0.627468 1.226660 2.161758
2025-08-10 NaN 0.005167 0.064398 0.252309 0.637632 1.264345 2.249806
2025-08-17 NaN 0.003244 0.056108 0.238906 0.626649 1.268445 2.288681
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002587 0.054205 0.241100 0.644479 1.318070 2.394680
2025-08-31 NaN 0.001701 0.049439 0.235082 0.646342 1.342100 2.463012