Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 1.202582e-01 0.148096 0.178454 0.213730 0.253309 0.296077 0.345516
2025-04-06 8.137606e-02 0.117084 0.159736 0.213216 0.277303 0.350542 0.439476
2025-04-13 5.778143e-02 0.097402 0.149073 0.218396 0.306132 0.410892 0.542870
2025-04-20 4.203968e-02 0.083393 0.142143 0.225916 0.336975 0.474385 0.652540
2025-04-27 3.039246e-02 0.071695 0.135646 0.232184 0.365535 0.535604 0.761398
2025-05-04 2.037863e-02 0.059097 0.125101 0.230798 0.382841 0.582413 0.853261
2025-05-11 1.428422e-02 0.051057 0.119700 0.235465 0.407726 0.639168 0.958766
2025-05-18 9.041811e-03 0.042115 0.110758 0.233203 0.421916 0.681475 1.046085
2025-05-25 4.596135e-03 0.031737 0.096592 0.220447 0.419235 0.699921 1.101665
2025-06-01 2.720852e-03 0.026993 0.091979 0.222507 0.438090 0.748016 1.197238
2025-06-08 1.223267e-03 0.021270 0.083632 0.216788 0.444144 0.777719 1.268049
2025-06-15 7.786467e-04 0.019926 0.084924 0.228384 0.477625 0.847146 1.394176
2025-06-22 2.819200e-04 0.016412 0.080036 0.228160 0.492572 0.890897 1.486936
2025-06-29 6.850092e-05 0.013617 0.076072 0.229136 0.509312 0.937548 1.584540
2025-07-06 1.056482e-05 0.011987 0.074903 0.235473 0.535080 0.998025 1.702473
2025-07-13 1.549801e-07 0.010831 0.074816 0.243920 0.564571 1.064520 1.829753
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009618 0.074089 0.250837 0.591553 1.127645 1.953045
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007693 0.069871 0.249572 0.604045 1.168819 2.045388
2025-08-03 NaN 0.006644 0.068560 0.254599 0.627661 1.227319 2.163261
2025-08-10 NaN 0.005145 0.064332 0.252284 0.637838 1.265051 2.251423
2025-08-17 NaN 0.003227 0.056046 0.238883 0.626864 1.269186 2.290390
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002571 0.054142 0.241077 0.644709 1.318866 2.396517
2025-08-31 NaN 0.001689 0.049378 0.235060 0.646584 1.342937 2.464957