Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 202.935341 246.076281 299.369215 371.203551 467.336528 5.943136e+02 7.796085e+02
2025-06-15 162.475206 216.189135 291.642227 409.804755 599.192695 9.090567e+02 1.499971e+03
2025-06-22 131.500322 185.819287 268.944790 413.669608 679.534563 1.198323e+03 2.464734e+03
2025-06-29 113.445291 168.111640 257.761087 428.440823 782.549334 1.600864e+03 4.204887e+03
2025-07-06 97.772340 150.031517 240.277419 424.395594 845.981469 1.974085e+03 6.617820e+03
2025-07-13 91.626259 146.120497 245.839042 466.260304 1035.158943 2.878039e+03 1.402686e+04
2025-07-20 85.897094 141.602343 248.837845 503.706246 1240.811706 4.149081e+03 3.250073e+04
2025-07-27 80.185264 135.946372 248.061544 532.173735 1445.184048 5.838245e+03 8.396503e+04
2025-08-03 74.394300 129.088641 243.137966 548.525482 1627.146229 7.922866e+03 2.502812e+05
2025-08-10 68.645119 121.384796 234.704146 552.536434 1771.663156 1.031216e+04 9.340681e+05
2025-08-17 62.732995 112.507266 221.896492 539.807831 1841.471871 1.248784e+04 4.466240e+06
2025-08-24 57.499505 104.375601 209.420067 524.346383 1891.602361 1.485985e+04 6.164682e+07
2025-08-31 52.535937 96.449458 196.672831 506.182248 1929.048264 1.767119e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 51.627131 97.166188 205.409185 562.909388 2444.009947 3.372062e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 48.547732 92.655924 199.944876 568.398473 2673.099599 4.922153e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 46.419088 90.026754 198.970933 590.739796 3065.681687 8.478398e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 43.526500 85.281117 191.393002 584.566853 3242.569204 1.229192e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 43.048915 86.161605 199.744876 648.605811 4183.987248 3.848671e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 42.262269 86.188485 205.687668 706.574149 5284.403470 1.715000e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 41.105025 85.148544 208.244799 751.060739 6434.440354 1.496302e+07 NaN
2025-10-26 39.590623 83.024203 207.038044 776.772321 7473.271204 1.359296e+09 NaN
2025-11-02 37.810303 80.022081 202.502138 783.096537 8266.958633 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 35.699635 75.955577 193.852586 763.050354 8519.540916 NaN NaN