Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 195.849562 233.721255 279.268391 338.794568 415.605311 512.886918 6.478998e+02
2025-09-07 159.148104 207.153421 272.005262 368.727074 514.306914 734.195998 1.110758e+03
2025-09-14 131.112591 180.831627 253.547750 372.767705 574.406413 925.576272 1.648944e+03
2025-09-21 114.280155 165.016110 244.130365 384.544365 647.552201 1170.092316 2.464491e+03
2025-09-28 99.494719 148.747110 229.426543 381.900896 692.504365 1383.959645 3.417019e+03
2025-10-05 93.692779 145.345040 234.569818 415.346812 820.873103 1856.567125 5.667616e+03
2025-10-12 87.914505 140.762596 236.356486 442.435561 947.841610 2423.872344 9.333268e+03
2025-10-19 82.163799 135.165007 234.939200 462.208460 1067.152083 3078.678649 1.526026e+04
2025-10-26 76.514303 128.819931 230.740374 474.468238 1173.468968 3805.359047 2.477515e+04
2025-11-02 70.869303 121.649360 223.519958 477.531524 1255.692768 4543.419806 3.934519e+04
2025-11-09 64.864243 112.998844 211.747132 466.141110 1287.641739 5108.072697 5.773989e+04
2025-11-16 59.635682 105.268976 200.785114 454.263464 1313.817732 5698.185785 8.576950e+04
2025-11-23 54.728479 97.829241 189.799473 441.001064 1335.062371 6349.333696 1.330806e+05
2025-11-30 53.813900 98.486369 197.341362 482.707534 1600.259210 9244.717525 4.572423e+05
2025-12-07 50.828530 94.408364 193.093100 488.323023 1720.511814 11429.008474 1.281215e+06
2025-12-14 48.708434 91.942529 192.355887 504.974866 1908.598306 15048.440940 7.078046e+06
2025-12-21 45.820850 87.467033 185.920508 501.223673 1994.071613 17956.264206 5.261825e+07
2025-12-28 45.395682 88.454385 193.630911 548.819543 2412.509674 28740.234634 NaN
2026-01-04 44.514743 88.286259 198.286313 587.665415 2833.838812 45074.909511 NaN
2026-01-11 43.260916 87.095798 199.962528 616.181547 3231.214543 68770.235345 NaN
2026-01-18 41.726766 85.066636 198.962460 633.929001 3580.528278 101442.226686 NaN
2026-01-25 39.914212 82.177365 195.052842 638.371306 3833.551437 140852.029041 NaN
2026-02-01 37.674114 78.031875 186.887761 621.869006 3881.555094 170181.483190 NaN