Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 176.044730 206.663912 242.481695 287.847803 344.306497 412.960091 5.038460e+02
2025-11-09 134.182813 170.070800 216.394267 281.796321 373.799319 501.852227 6.996214e+02
2025-11-16 109.790772 146.696609 197.737793 275.723750 396.092382 582.541256 9.101335e+02
2025-11-23 93.225873 129.638000 182.734028 269.071968 412.771414 656.370995 1.136015e+03
2025-11-30 87.002879 125.784117 185.365464 288.539644 474.260065 821.159865 1.597642e+03
2025-12-07 78.820763 117.436322 179.235283 291.767162 507.779835 945.824386 2.044401e+03
2025-12-14 72.842216 111.550310 175.871069 298.652555 549.341869 1100.750924 2.655931e+03
2025-12-21 66.676330 104.451734 169.220874 297.900214 575.038834 1230.329608 3.291221e+03
2025-12-28 64.491851 103.730875 173.527187 318.960703 653.222029 1518.585453 4.659026e+03
2026-01-04 61.823966 101.772679 175.183564 334.863680 724.547515 1824.356170 6.432538e+03
2026-01-11 59.004460 99.165329 175.162809 347.094914 790.847641 2151.817957 8.750544e+03
2026-01-18 55.929609 95.711655 172.956216 353.932733 845.387015 2474.384091 1.159439e+04
2026-01-25 52.492084 91.345489 168.620149 355.749040 889.360443 2799.207737 1.522168e+04
2026-02-01 48.609933 85.730656 160.999479 348.238409 904.182348 3027.828501 1.882095e+04
2026-02-08 45.140936 80.594167 153.769860 340.401708 916.028235 3257.159747 2.319306e+04
2026-02-15 41.996416 75.810427 146.730716 331.769019 922.872992 3473.450412 2.831004e+04
2026-02-22 41.555805 76.506118 151.952699 357.110579 1056.513499 4435.314359 4.776996e+04
2026-03-01 39.713806 74.084130 149.732375 361.323325 1116.038410 5071.166286 6.805561e+04
2026-03-08 38.310029 72.460295 149.179204 370.320231 1198.783311 5954.292120 1.044913e+05
2026-03-15 36.451675 69.682167 145.525304 369.336505 1241.075440 6631.223299 1.477827e+05
2026-03-22 36.220963 70.463538 150.690781 396.937522 1421.936704 8651.429868 3.103610e+05
2026-03-29 35.605970 70.319052 153.516662 417.863518 1585.915004 10910.415667 6.621092e+05
2026-04-05 34.777535 69.606083 154.786553 434.005687 1737.499383 13458.228018 1.489373e+06