Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 214.186966 258.054981 311.585640 382.706230 476.244741 597.297494 7.696066e+02
2025-08-17 157.811250 206.725877 273.578886 374.736695 529.828449 769.579382 1.192936e+03
2025-08-24 126.352369 174.869549 246.436133 365.149400 569.248489 932.878459 1.707599e+03
2025-08-31 105.724612 152.354402 225.176395 354.887894 599.544588 1091.598534 2.337988e+03
2025-09-07 98.290394 147.651262 229.474190 386.852149 716.233826 1481.025489 3.901873e+03
2025-09-14 88.185802 136.522586 220.237898 390.889073 778.475649 1792.247349 5.719130e+03
2025-09-21 81.258840 129.400532 216.317413 403.789074 866.035136 2237.156166 8.944085e+03
2025-09-28 73.752561 120.024527 206.308739 400.950378 914.252546 2610.375256 1.294734e+04
2025-10-05 71.386898 119.507498 213.139286 437.501749 1087.199355 3602.706842 2.565395e+04
2025-10-12 68.503402 117.533214 216.569424 467.141223 1258.983324 4848.938468 5.295143e+04
2025-10-19 65.248818 114.344464 216.794874 488.846961 1420.543362 6351.079564 1.151794e+05
2025-10-26 61.739312 110.161466 214.071113 501.927458 1561.966370 8069.296139 2.673516e+05
2025-11-02 57.741381 104.689271 207.987271 505.387185 1677.593413 10017.106630 7.152920e+05
2025-11-09 53.380704 97.971120 197.984725 494.698980 1729.418974 11676.886686 1.965670e+06
2025-11-16 49.387558 91.600971 187.872902 481.103365 1762.094300 13361.810700 6.859556e+06
2025-11-23 45.810293 85.755869 178.206243 466.492949 1782.826450 15105.594688 3.976800e+07
2025-11-30 45.364824 86.739516 185.802434 512.202722 2170.631054 24625.674589 NaN
2025-12-07 43.199526 83.605755 182.261321 518.005786 2338.403551 32283.714594 NaN
2025-12-14 41.704402 81.847617 182.113092 536.592264 2616.120441 46880.951612 NaN
2025-12-21 39.524615 78.270852 176.482164 532.496542 2734.968789 59391.184454 NaN
2025-12-28 39.350239 79.426953 184.255418 585.475106 3382.409829 119974.666965 NaN
2026-01-04 38.771968 79.539092 189.087721 628.809122 4048.855807 247222.456043 NaN
2026-01-11 37.860737 78.728130 191.065717 660.748273 4689.131461 517486.766715 NaN