Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 170.542984 206.022623 249.731129 308.491043 386.928639 4.902986e+02 6.408495e+02
2025-04-13 125.493381 164.712569 218.954251 302.410944 433.432113 6.427137e+02 1.030200e+03
2025-04-20 108.615599 151.761525 217.036637 329.241749 532.377341 9.222775e+02 1.855456e+03
2025-04-27 96.564759 141.567586 214.629626 352.225471 634.346288 1.278446e+03 3.303993e+03
2025-05-04 86.879165 132.369647 210.603199 369.804863 734.612182 1.718765e+03 5.888744e+03
2025-05-11 78.598278 123.579173 204.723203 381.181652 827.950779 2.243425e+03 1.058426e+04
2025-05-18 71.111902 114.690625 196.447167 384.470157 904.090341 2.818676e+03 1.899175e+04
2025-05-25 64.060541 105.391759 185.367685 377.796598 949.992067 3.361221e+03 3.301019e+04
2025-06-01 57.841971 96.718409 173.886450 366.738150 977.675519 3.888306e+03 5.755659e+04
2025-06-08 52.547987 89.097237 163.260305 354.874414 997.506755 4.436897e+03 1.048848e+05
2025-06-15 51.485026 89.543883 169.973201 391.242923 1220.906024 6.899581e+03 6.745443e+05
2025-06-22 48.352252 85.405357 165.688095 395.441665 1322.100095 8.886078e+03 5.422477e+06
2025-06-29 46.033203 82.815486 164.930250 411.528818 1502.342899 1.286438e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 42.690329 77.685461 157.292141 403.841203 1563.082964 1.596436e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 41.944325 78.032436 163.184726 443.569747 1939.420216 2.999948e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 40.888218 77.546849 166.882110 477.811014 2349.196227 5.862518e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 39.551046 76.249212 168.193765 504.183257 2764.682920 1.186760e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 37.988867 74.240425 167.199123 521.339126 3153.507348 2.478428e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 36.189218 71.471175 163.593831 526.311208 3452.563968 5.072089e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 34.133960 67.885872 157.086009 516.227736 3584.241045 9.025544e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 32.090953 64.151031 149.636987 499.572856 3621.404266 1.488171e+06 NaN
2025-08-31 30.201107 60.633550 142.388950 481.781104 3624.787342 2.458546e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 30.193975 61.762689 149.390627 536.569478 4802.086674 9.223650e+08 NaN