Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 201.656011 244.342912 297.020813 367.943729 462.729354 5.877357e+02 7.698263e+02
2025-06-15 161.478599 214.673391 289.302763 405.996138 592.669396 8.973582e+02 1.476544e+03
2025-06-22 131.368838 185.289022 267.581438 410.364760 671.469141 1.177855e+03 2.402810e+03
2025-06-29 113.682525 167.976312 256.634116 424.474033 769.948828 1.559266e+03 4.023977e+03
2025-07-06 98.202763 150.138528 239.332022 419.941333 828.993034 1.905366e+03 6.200973e+03
2025-07-13 92.213538 146.419637 244.955694 460.739253 1009.763990 2.746607e+03 1.272681e+04
2025-07-20 86.529866 141.936087 247.775806 496.520181 1203.072646 3.901934e+03 2.805624e+04
2025-07-27 80.831979 136.286989 246.823766 523.328772 1392.785829 5.402570e+03 6.727552e+04
2025-08-03 75.214169 129.788814 242.590751 540.593250 1568.657641 7.278293e+03 1.831199e+05
2025-08-10 69.530045 122.257454 234.530706 545.012530 1705.946760 9.379804e+03 5.795267e+05
2025-08-17 63.649432 113.506074 222.079663 533.078996 1772.631612 1.127030e+04 2.079626e+06
2025-08-24 58.373558 105.344871 209.609218 517.466317 1815.826351 1.324454e+04 1.250996e+07
2025-08-31 53.402584 97.450806 196.996481 499.522379 1847.522968 1.553916e+04 7.849298e+08
2025-09-07 52.582368 98.351282 206.029004 555.591144 2330.836140 2.866534e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 49.556066 93.996673 200.984770 561.998454 2548.315755 4.094002e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 47.420466 91.375507 199.999482 583.297196 2905.088536 6.721971e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 44.486869 86.578134 192.336110 576.429171 3056.981019 9.322492e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 44.037639 87.526105 200.737365 638.546392 3910.114059 2.560006e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 43.243485 87.542690 206.533690 693.655136 4882.505230 8.813097e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 42.065568 86.469772 208.919641 735.316247 5877.334910 4.257941e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 40.599446 84.503263 208.218939 762.309417 6818.269455 4.386534e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 38.822115 81.553538 203.920882 769.239306 7520.360131 6.691537e+09 NaN
2025-11-09 36.697135 77.505348 195.471703 750.545225 7746.726836 NaN NaN