Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 256.082885 312.916637 383.701170 479.954762 610.016740 7.835989e+02 1.039841e+03
2025-07-27 195.315886 261.927115 356.191762 504.978773 745.484186 1.142500e+03 1.906907e+03
2025-08-03 160.104145 228.562217 334.388652 520.693678 867.238641 1.552801e+03 3.252941e+03
2025-08-10 135.377132 202.316477 312.861481 524.776033 967.240837 1.994368e+03 5.261723e+03
2025-08-17 115.668629 178.882930 288.650639 513.634426 1030.105804 2.408696e+03 7.990239e+03
2025-08-24 100.471779 159.710712 266.862333 499.105020 1077.882538 2.833475e+03 1.191110e+04
2025-08-31 88.490285 143.908571 247.640706 483.505984 1115.652157 3.275644e+03 1.765739e+04
2025-09-07 85.002051 142.708670 256.080985 532.408500 1358.673492 4.776301e+03 4.120972e+04
2025-09-14 78.263363 134.241360 247.903709 538.711519 1480.235039 5.999443e+03 8.093359e+04
2025-09-21 73.525287 128.902989 245.233624 558.470566 1664.390503 7.976536e+03 2.057276e+05
2025-09-28 67.790549 120.744857 234.779399 553.731869 1757.298720 9.673906e+03 4.943326e+05
2025-10-05 66.413868 121.309901 244.335360 610.597757 2158.557961 1.539514e+04 5.765562e+06
2025-10-12 64.272549 120.170316 250.213318 661.335070 2609.269510 2.500928e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 61.584379 117.474124 251.786937 699.697190 3059.988175 4.011252e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 58.536858 113.544831 249.405100 723.792191 3473.837274 6.270432e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 55.156123 108.411593 242.841749 730.063246 3790.318108 9.274243e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 51.370520 101.892287 231.356823 712.990068 3918.003182 1.222921e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 47.829781 95.587431 219.514999 690.797645 3986.816701 1.564713e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 44.611572 89.738713 208.122455 667.065759 4022.330641 1.971022e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 44.383512 91.132472 218.084915 741.790109 5185.482273 6.305613e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 42.450421 88.074327 214.178127 751.489867 5696.812001 1.328461e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 41.132179 86.429527 214.375956 781.996130 6586.623569 4.756434e+06 NaN
2025-12-21 39.107759 82.769927 207.633883 774.666412 6950.620092 1.296059e+07 NaN