Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 167.746722 202.499568 245.269326 302.701053 379.262926 4.800066e+02 6.264663e+02
2025-04-13 123.497956 161.917228 214.968234 296.435925 424.026026 6.272150e+02 1.001922e+03
2025-04-20 106.627625 148.920353 212.861101 322.675282 521.243331 9.017469e+02 1.810156e+03
2025-04-27 94.653708 138.811476 210.531171 345.668568 622.936671 1.256540e+03 3.251933e+03
2025-05-04 85.084606 129.761678 206.702753 363.565014 723.973095 1.700224e+03 5.868300e+03
2025-05-11 76.734073 120.780898 200.366360 373.815911 814.418543 2.217899e+03 1.058487e+04
2025-05-18 69.305986 111.921729 192.022846 376.732702 889.337914 2.791927e+03 1.916370e+04
2025-05-25 62.349212 102.722186 181.009342 369.952483 934.566260 3.335711e+03 3.367643e+04
2025-06-01 56.261340 94.226843 169.769537 359.234772 963.016310 3.873120e+03 5.978621e+04
2025-06-08 51.085193 86.770421 159.375469 347.721853 983.750578 4.436285e+03 1.115995e+05
2025-06-15 49.978775 87.076807 165.687199 382.850444 1203.158227 6.913361e+03 7.684756e+05
2025-06-22 46.847055 82.877207 161.132872 385.932238 1298.908095 8.878684e+03 6.948400e+06
2025-06-29 44.583452 80.356758 160.451600 402.103060 1480.574279 1.298972e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 41.321761 75.351518 153.016585 394.834864 1543.804311 1.626506e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 40.563053 75.633184 158.682660 433.792690 1919.976959 3.104957e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 39.532780 75.167730 162.368546 468.024304 2336.483161 6.238500e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 38.239605 73.932573 163.780780 494.826057 2764.814259 1.315645e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 36.655965 71.827690 162.416715 510.250803 3144.803349 2.810782e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 34.882553 69.074755 158.748021 514.650108 3443.458348 6.000579e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 32.873320 65.553663 152.306753 504.434550 3575.181781 1.117545e+06 NaN
2025-08-24 30.895274 61.932677 145.076887 488.338256 3619.108189 1.963958e+06 NaN
2025-08-31 29.066607 58.524336 138.044743 471.119854 3629.216625 3.516821e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 29.021234 59.528782 144.609423 523.889958 4809.082379 5.638680e+10 NaN