Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 196.433850 238.730033 291.195627 362.260249 457.924598 5.851646e+02 7.724349e+02
2025-05-04 151.007126 200.790656 270.771823 380.512884 556.810052 8.463118e+02 1.401666e+03
2025-05-11 124.591424 175.909432 254.516314 391.644927 644.482583 1.140993e+03 2.367114e+03
2025-05-18 106.056831 156.463052 238.793251 394.872978 717.255122 1.459096e+03 3.811799e+03
2025-05-25 91.326499 139.251239 221.462305 387.895783 765.451471 1.764367e+03 5.813870e+03
2025-06-01 79.659009 124.671916 204.981699 376.594534 798.355826 2.064281e+03 8.634604e+03
2025-06-08 70.413633 112.604459 190.390597 364.464546 823.591747 2.373102e+03 1.276193e+04
2025-06-15 67.874883 111.956838 197.198900 401.546862 1002.848680 3.466697e+03 3.062717e+04
2025-06-22 62.608516 105.386223 190.764377 405.250872 1087.243548 4.326804e+03 6.112942e+04
2025-06-29 58.951421 101.330570 188.749918 419.599315 1219.133723 5.741449e+03 1.644979e+05
2025-07-06 54.468189 95.030768 180.708906 415.376308 1282.387486 6.929484e+03 4.249919e+05
2025-07-13 53.359533 95.363885 187.580444 455.993396 1564.889242 1.098568e+04 8.296077e+06
2025-07-20 51.606449 94.306019 191.498082 491.411621 1878.055829 1.780447e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 49.495504 92.211161 192.570009 518.945029 2196.576043 2.881596e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 47.091627 89.148062 190.613890 535.736614 2485.619560 4.550753e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 44.468659 85.264715 185.812059 540.613687 2712.863833 6.867848e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 41.577566 80.443888 177.698534 530.090957 2820.158822 9.359600e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 38.773362 75.544573 168.648633 513.099659 2861.543221 1.207902e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 36.218570 70.989846 159.925761 494.937561 2877.716815 1.531994e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 36.084599 72.169097 167.697674 550.704221 3723.909767 5.691963e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 34.526866 69.727132 164.484580 556.313811 4070.626728 1.329815e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 33.483606 68.448096 164.575553 578.109745 4700.386459 6.675971e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 31.865459 65.575526 159.335458 571.684019 4940.797282 2.734646e+07 NaN