Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 212.541069 257.368474 312.552639 386.622812 485.230999 6.146581e+02 8.020451e+02
2025-07-13 169.307108 224.799424 302.318243 422.814424 613.978048 9.224561e+02 1.499211e+03
2025-07-20 144.211874 204.177371 295.895432 455.280660 746.883837 1.311593e+03 2.670450e+03
2025-07-27 126.184620 187.572610 288.306838 479.924528 876.068815 1.783850e+03 4.616763e+03
2025-08-03 111.530712 172.248443 277.638167 493.694313 990.373167 2.321225e+03 7.764566e+03
2025-08-10 99.083227 157.771881 264.387358 497.067019 1083.765909 2.901211e+03 1.275641e+04
2025-08-17 87.729604 143.031643 247.138980 486.027834 1136.432071 3.425009e+03 1.982413e+04
2025-08-24 78.335593 130.273978 231.048127 472.541048 1176.604651 3.968664e+03 3.083461e+04
2025-08-31 70.508248 119.264963 216.366002 458.098455 1207.774093 4.537295e+03 4.851390e+04
2025-09-07 68.557383 119.177096 224.355320 503.316414 1465.456467 6.727621e+03 1.488070e+05
2025-09-14 63.912348 113.062056 218.025639 508.330011 1585.388982 8.457156e+03 3.811880e+05
2025-09-21 60.696271 109.408226 216.574811 527.006727 1778.686228 1.142083e+04 1.766090e+06
2025-09-28 56.203496 102.748828 207.478979 521.862688 1876.143059 1.412976e+04 1.236374e+07
2025-10-05 55.124843 103.245979 215.826234 575.778016 2326.927966 2.429131e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 53.692617 102.753670 221.633913 624.542801 2830.445134 4.266197e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 51.817959 100.995514 223.798822 661.845505 3335.282502 7.455322e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 49.502209 97.912437 221.790635 682.797130 3773.071696 1.254479e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 46.904222 93.852434 216.334659 687.940760 4106.172282 2.002272e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 43.926997 88.564824 206.514934 671.123098 4224.131277 2.774267e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 41.138327 83.472630 196.545498 650.645066 4288.754070 3.753264e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 38.578002 78.709386 186.901449 628.800472 4318.672313 5.010611e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 38.442684 79.958398 195.617909 697.483567 5586.750722 2.590898e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 36.873768 77.409168 192.150245 705.150753 6118.990058 8.400204e+06 NaN