Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 217.177209 258.380401 307.528126 371.135146 452.248466 553.566594 6.918497e+02
2025-10-19 170.656460 220.904895 287.831302 385.846596 529.904324 740.985317 1.088142e+03
2025-10-26 142.502605 195.571775 272.000494 394.657326 595.951439 932.230574 1.584095e+03
2025-11-02 122.333863 175.469577 256.723096 396.935883 648.928611 1120.361429 2.183128e+03
2025-11-09 105.591631 156.681359 238.539728 388.227155 678.175125 1275.941298 2.821368e+03
2025-11-16 92.706952 141.492156 222.781031 379.000891 702.230976 1430.305933 3.577320e+03
2025-11-23 82.346394 128.709581 208.589743 368.880177 720.580737 1579.929237 4.457451e+03
2025-11-30 79.207314 127.545719 214.419716 398.712104 835.657540 2029.053442 6.835555e+03
2025-12-07 73.422769 120.860432 208.841588 403.539879 893.918438 2359.661955 9.285641e+03
2025-12-14 69.084223 116.181202 206.272098 414.230145 971.356564 2803.218899 1.316819e+04
2025-12-21 64.133999 109.727678 199.150837 412.843992 1015.757871 3169.050111 1.756507e+04
2025-12-28 62.890306 110.176334 206.189944 447.112010 1179.577553 4140.842096 3.011739e+04
2026-01-04 60.861816 108.997983 209.973637 475.468327 1344.217156 5335.446470 5.317809e+04
2026-01-11 58.370744 106.587994 210.706541 496.289066 1496.828623 6702.874881 9.462829e+04
2026-01-18 55.545813 103.138846 208.521383 508.527025 1626.343644 8166.810675 1.676619e+05
2026-01-25 52.474863 98.815669 203.628336 511.686787 1723.142823 9613.677480 2.918576e+05
2026-02-01 48.909704 93.054304 194.472008 499.709421 1750.102860 10608.402151 4.559425e+05
2026-02-08 45.673676 87.713099 185.680596 487.041663 1769.533927 11620.878516 7.280754e+05
2026-02-15 42.702653 82.691948 177.075599 473.175257 1777.894801 12591.324472 1.177960e+06
2026-02-22 42.451343 83.783176 184.234710 514.138309 2093.402769 17921.102674 6.114373e+06
2026-03-01 40.724734 81.301665 181.686224 520.792703 2231.251927 21696.136939 2.618402e+07
2026-03-08 39.432376 79.714479 181.335884 535.552110 2431.537540 27543.794813 4.216506e+08
2026-03-15 37.630501 76.751735 176.829611 533.636449 2528.648661 32233.390447 1.014811e+11