Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.055307 0.062947 0.071506 0.081855 0.094090 0.108170 0.125708
2026-01-18 0.045544 0.055418 0.067437 0.083314 0.103995 0.130380 0.167183
2026-01-25 0.037397 0.048122 0.062124 0.082113 0.110528 0.150447 0.212598
2026-02-01 0.030553 0.041250 0.056098 0.078812 0.113803 0.167670 0.261145
2026-02-08 0.026428 0.037360 0.053460 0.079843 0.123960 0.198743 0.344887
2026-02-15 0.023088 0.034038 0.051070 0.080860 0.134809 0.235537 0.458476
2026-02-22 0.020562 0.031535 0.049517 0.083021 0.148728 0.284285 0.627443
2026-03-01 0.018377 0.029218 0.047856 0.084718 0.162797 0.340765 0.859340
2026-03-08 0.016142 0.026459 0.044941 0.083445 0.170808 0.389112 1.117864
2026-03-15 0.013778 0.023121 0.040399 0.077903 0.167845 0.410356 1.320836
2026-03-22 0.012503 0.021568 0.038979 0.078682 0.180597 0.483113 1.809813
2026-03-29 0.011586 0.020548 0.038432 0.081344 0.199687 0.589766 2.636255
2026-04-05 0.010596 0.019269 0.037189 0.082265 0.215322 0.701363 3.775224
2026-04-12 0.009706 0.018063 0.035901 0.082813 0.230700 0.829335 5.449499
2026-04-19 0.008766 0.016625 0.033854 0.080888 0.237702 0.932524 7.396468
2026-04-26 0.007836 0.015090 0.031340 0.077079 0.236868 1.001888 9.435274
2026-05-03 0.007273 0.014278 0.030406 0.077611 0.252884 1.184006 14.280564
2026-05-10 0.006777 0.013549 0.029553 0.078204 0.270030 1.403232 22.284062
2026-05-17 0.006388 0.013011 0.029093 0.079949 0.293731 1.713826 38.035372
2026-05-24 0.006020 0.012475 0.028545 0.081294 0.317110 2.078315 66.935183
2026-05-31 0.005580 0.011714 0.027281 0.079860 0.326533 2.352340 105.920111
2026-06-07 0.005039 0.010653 0.025048 0.074438 0.312424 2.375128 131.370208
2026-06-14 0.004765 0.010216 0.024489 0.075036 0.332300 2.830026 252.038080