Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.152778 0.180948 0.214062 0.256184 0.308797 0.372948 4.580184e-01
2025-07-27 0.124099 0.160432 0.208060 0.276315 0.373731 0.511117 7.258264e-01
2025-08-03 0.101765 0.141675 0.199147 0.290815 0.439045 0.680227 1.127421e+00
2025-08-10 0.081819 0.121284 0.182912 0.291065 0.487460 0.854675 1.666919e+00
2025-08-17 0.065210 0.101934 0.163420 0.280863 0.518117 1.025127 2.367713e+00
2025-08-24 0.055307 0.091057 0.155192 0.288764 0.590803 1.339108 3.790329e+00
2025-08-31 0.047369 0.081730 0.147404 0.295807 0.670497 1.750867 6.227695e+00
2025-09-07 0.041192 0.074217 0.141193 0.304896 0.766219 2.325484 1.076842e+01
2025-09-14 0.036121 0.067702 0.135360 0.313509 0.872749 3.100640 1.944527e+01
2025-09-21 0.031114 0.060233 0.125509 0.308570 0.940104 3.866578 3.309288e+01
2025-09-28 0.025062 0.049364 0.105197 0.267293 0.857009 3.842290 4.009523e+01
2025-10-05 0.022514 0.045703 0.101321 0.273085 0.961634 5.085585 8.046808e+01
2025-10-12 0.020539 0.043105 0.099888 0.288046 1.133719 7.385876 2.150775e+02
2025-10-19 0.018877 0.040909 0.099007 0.305553 1.350772 11.117568 7.467656e+02
2025-10-26 0.017214 0.038375 0.096550 0.317038 1.564967 16.360161 3.316744e+03
2025-11-02 0.015374 0.035025 0.090832 0.313350 1.693627 21.860009 1.662105e+04
2025-11-09 0.013560 0.031415 0.083404 0.299125 1.739820 26.909858 1.028846e+05
2025-11-16 0.012440 0.029463 0.080708 0.305074 1.965201 39.784191 1.873349e+07
2025-11-23 0.011447 0.027675 0.078083 0.310443 2.213153 59.867026 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010613 0.026181 0.076067 0.318255 2.522081 94.934820 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009867 0.024809 0.074119 0.325787 2.869920 155.439000 NaN
2025-12-14 0.009019 0.022989 0.070080 0.319378 3.047264 222.914520 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007798 0.019867 0.060526 0.275519 2.622111 189.909654 NaN