Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.151422 0.179280 0.212015 0.253635 0.305595 0.368918 4.528424e-01
2025-07-27 0.122898 0.158782 0.205786 0.273090 0.369053 0.504245 7.152595e-01
2025-08-03 0.100729 0.140112 0.196764 0.287008 0.432718 0.669381 1.107248e+00
2025-08-10 0.080968 0.119894 0.180598 0.286953 0.479689 0.839169 1.631727e+00
2025-08-17 0.064528 0.100745 0.161283 0.276688 0.509233 1.004580 2.310429e+00
2025-08-24 0.054726 0.089976 0.153098 0.284253 0.579917 1.309416 3.684447e+00
2025-08-31 0.046870 0.080748 0.145367 0.290998 0.657358 1.708338 6.027908e+00
2025-09-07 0.040759 0.073319 0.139207 0.299774 0.750371 2.263994 1.037159e+01
2025-09-14 0.035743 0.066881 0.133431 0.308098 0.853817 3.011876 1.862048e+01
2025-09-21 0.030793 0.059507 0.123718 0.303174 0.919070 3.749016 3.150630e+01
2025-09-28 0.024811 0.048787 0.103735 0.262715 0.838049 3.724817 3.808471e+01
2025-10-05 0.022281 0.045148 0.099848 0.268142 0.938751 4.912907 7.560515e+01
2025-10-12 0.020326 0.042576 0.098412 0.282676 1.105332 7.110894 1.990030e+02
2025-10-19 0.018680 0.040403 0.097519 0.299691 1.315170 10.661208 6.743190e+02
2025-10-26 0.017036 0.037899 0.095085 0.310825 1.521934 15.625594 2.881661e+03
2025-11-02 0.015215 0.034594 0.089456 0.307162 1.645872 20.810932 1.363794e+04
2025-11-09 0.013423 0.031032 0.082150 0.293225 1.690143 25.555008 7.702049e+04
2025-11-16 0.012315 0.029105 0.079494 0.298998 1.907420 37.609286 8.197385e+06
2025-11-23 0.011333 0.027341 0.076909 0.304204 2.146218 56.303035 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010508 0.025867 0.074924 0.311804 2.443580 88.728315 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009770 0.024513 0.073006 0.319132 2.778069 144.217023 NaN
2025-12-14 0.008932 0.022718 0.069037 0.312868 2.948491 205.631819 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007724 0.019640 0.059652 0.270085 2.540016 175.726817 NaN