Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.056481 0.064601 0.073737 0.084826 0.097988 0.113195 0.132211
2025-11-16 0.044124 0.054003 0.066076 0.082084 0.103007 0.129784 0.167229
2025-11-23 0.035482 0.045980 0.059749 0.079483 0.107633 0.147280 0.209091
2025-11-30 0.029696 0.040530 0.055696 0.079088 0.115406 0.171701 0.269950
2025-12-07 0.025135 0.035944 0.052000 0.078522 0.123181 0.199276 0.348382
2025-12-14 0.020996 0.031262 0.047321 0.075519 0.126662 0.221930 0.430989
2025-12-21 0.017000 0.026143 0.041058 0.068603 0.121787 0.228797 0.488694
2025-12-28 0.014877 0.023693 0.038746 0.068144 0.129078 0.263182 0.631294
2026-01-04 0.013362 0.022015 0.037469 0.069387 0.140524 0.312584 0.852817
2026-01-11 0.011941 0.020277 0.035779 0.069477 0.149848 0.362728 1.127759
2026-01-18 0.010723 0.018723 0.034165 0.069392 0.159070 0.418947 1.492858
2026-01-25 0.009504 0.016987 0.031896 0.067344 0.162892 0.463090 1.877514
2026-02-01 0.008309 0.015159 0.029191 0.063811 0.162093 0.494996 2.276205
2026-02-08 0.007595 0.014192 0.028159 0.064176 0.173086 0.578336 3.139482
2026-02-15 0.006945 0.013267 0.027065 0.064152 0.183277 0.669494 4.322444
2026-02-22 0.006461 0.012623 0.026502 0.065465 0.198948 0.802161 6.347863
2026-03-01 0.006007 0.011984 0.025844 0.066373 0.214072 0.952240 9.349575
2026-03-08 0.005490 0.011134 0.024529 0.065013 0.220224 1.064839 12.702101
2026-03-15 0.004863 0.009960 0.022227 0.060050 0.209648 1.068351 14.490727
2026-03-22 0.004546 0.009469 0.021605 0.060339 0.222156 1.244465 21.547951
2026-03-29 0.004316 0.009156 0.021401 0.061992 0.242251 1.514190 35.585884
2026-04-05 0.004066 0.008760 0.020911 0.062554 0.257864 1.784238 57.083405
2026-04-12 0.003830 0.008375 0.020388 0.062879 0.272920 2.089561 93.457708