Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.127019 0.149458 0.175632 0.208650 0.249519 0.298875 3.636477e-01
2025-07-20 0.101848 0.130195 0.166848 0.218581 0.291152 0.391563 5.450722e-01
2025-07-27 0.084649 0.116209 0.160873 0.230707 0.341011 0.515672 8.290110e-01
2025-08-03 0.070433 0.102950 0.152843 0.238600 0.390432 0.665784 1.251416e+00
2025-08-10 0.057466 0.088600 0.139827 0.235632 0.424115 0.813752 1.800092e+00
2025-08-17 0.046525 0.075052 0.124896 0.225338 0.442925 0.952443 2.490274e+00
2025-08-24 0.039879 0.067304 0.118222 0.229092 0.495384 1.212256 3.881018e+00
2025-08-31 0.034522 0.060709 0.112136 0.232631 0.552809 1.547072 6.211454e+00
2025-09-07 0.030294 0.055352 0.107227 0.237677 0.621005 2.002780 1.042549e+01
2025-09-14 0.026801 0.050723 0.102736 0.242644 0.696532 2.604919 1.824694e+01
2025-09-21 0.023315 0.045410 0.095438 0.237861 0.741345 3.176536 3.002754e+01
2025-09-28 0.018970 0.037479 0.080246 0.205559 0.668750 3.084124 3.470711e+01
2025-10-05 0.016924 0.034413 0.076526 0.207480 0.739221 4.008964 6.866173e+01
2025-10-12 0.015500 0.032498 0.075278 0.217262 0.858494 5.663117 1.745143e+02
2025-10-19 0.014315 0.030919 0.074567 0.229227 1.009414 8.290945 5.669356e+02
2025-10-26 0.013127 0.029107 0.072775 0.236998 1.156377 11.866831 2.277165e+03
2025-11-02 0.011799 0.026696 0.068646 0.234003 1.241613 15.471453 9.793298e+03
2025-11-09 0.010483 0.024091 0.063315 0.223756 1.270607 18.691827 4.795463e+04
2025-11-16 0.009659 0.022656 0.061301 0.227444 1.418936 26.660203 2.536134e+06
2025-11-23 0.008927 0.021349 0.059380 0.230924 1.582073 38.645110 NaN
2025-11-30 0.008305 0.020240 0.057858 0.235901 1.781015 58.426553 NaN
2025-12-07 0.007749 0.019225 0.056410 0.240803 2.003711 90.713122 NaN
2025-12-14 0.007114 0.017878 0.053461 0.236047 2.113729 124.567354 NaN