Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.568797 3.505205 4.834183 6.925791 1.026880e+01 1.566121e+01 25.616317
2025-04-06 1.514934 2.347635 3.749871 6.468588 1.212539e+01 2.485717e+01 61.879430
2025-04-13 0.952878 1.618100 2.890548 5.805214 1.344002e+01 3.727262e+01 155.541762
2025-04-20 0.694661 1.285060 2.562244 6.034634 1.780825e+01 7.363245e+01 740.311702
2025-04-27 0.547520 1.098254 2.441583 6.806599 2.670566e+01 1.935409e+02 13527.442851
2025-05-04 0.445295 0.961212 2.369117 7.834918 4.248832e+01 6.920088e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 0.356075 0.814401 2.184321 8.383252 6.240692e+01 2.977358e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 0.276151 0.656895 1.869078 8.001129 7.702152e+01 1.263898e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 0.214007 0.523587 1.555495 7.232908 8.597333e+01 6.254536e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 0.181113 0.461429 1.460776 7.708381 1.305659e+02 5.030685e+07 NaN
2025-06-08 0.154651 0.408290 1.368611 8.134511 2.004424e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.135518 0.370962 1.319695 8.927015 3.501472e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.117935 0.334042 1.258538 9.701250 6.578575e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.099038 0.285831 1.112008 9.245796 9.016801e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.082736 0.241673 0.959982 8.392420 1.065565e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.073402 0.219919 0.913219 8.911691 2.186629e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.067292 0.208108 0.914442 10.329311 7.758951e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.062292 0.198840 0.925572 12.230976 5.314428e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.056581 0.184707 0.896333 13.335383 5.257882e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.049945 0.164639 0.813701 12.772383 2.564538e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.043662 0.144421 0.718369 11.492447 5.055430e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.040234 0.135556 0.698282 12.417708 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.037110 0.127095 0.675671 13.259753 NaN NaN NaN