Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-03-15 0.009664 0.010654 0.011723 0.012966 0.014375 0.015929 0.017778
2026-03-22 0.006984 0.008120 0.009432 0.011066 0.013065 0.015449 0.018537
2026-03-29 0.005655 0.006873 0.008358 0.010325 0.012896 0.016190 0.020811
2026-04-05 0.004790 0.006043 0.007645 0.009880 0.012980 0.017220 0.023629
2026-04-12 0.004192 0.005462 0.007153 0.009625 0.013242 0.018499 0.027029
2026-04-19 0.003691 0.004941 0.006665 0.009289 0.013311 0.019481 0.030170
2026-04-26 0.003263 0.004469 0.006182 0.008880 0.013190 0.020127 0.032879
2026-05-03 0.003005 0.004209 0.005970 0.008840 0.013620 0.021708 0.037533
2026-05-10 0.002830 0.004049 0.005885 0.008980 0.014352 0.023909 0.043863
2026-05-17 0.002660 0.003879 0.005762 0.009035 0.014936 0.025938 0.050378
2026-05-24 0.002483 0.003683 0.005575 0.008955 0.015260 0.027525 0.056378
2026-05-31 0.002197 0.003289 0.005034 0.008199 0.014221 0.026235 0.055485
2026-06-07 0.001963 0.002970 0.004604 0.007619 0.013488 0.025541 0.056098
2026-06-14 0.001840 0.002825 0.004453 0.007534 0.013720 0.026955 0.062500
2026-06-21 0.001758 0.002740 0.004400 0.007624 0.014325 0.029327 0.072349
2026-06-28 0.001672 0.002643 0.004316 0.007644 0.014788 0.031480 0.082479
2026-07-05 0.001592 0.002550 0.004230 0.007650 0.015220 0.033664 0.093688
2026-07-12 0.001498 0.002426 0.004078 0.007505 0.015290 0.034947 0.102535
2026-07-19 0.001399 0.002285 0.003883 0.007251 0.015070 0.035414 0.108766
2026-07-26 0.001340 0.002214 0.003814 0.007255 0.015469 0.037694 0.123011
2026-08-02 0.001301 0.002176 0.003804 0.007386 0.016202 0.041128 0.143980
2026-08-09 0.001256 0.002123 0.003762 0.007441 0.016752 0.044170 0.165311
2026-08-16 0.001202 0.002051 0.003676 0.007385 0.017003 0.046340 0.184086