Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.049029 0.055728 0.063215 0.072243 0.082884 0.095088 0.110234
2025-12-21 0.036567 0.044221 0.053451 0.065522 0.081064 0.100642 0.127553
2025-12-28 0.030328 0.038740 0.049601 0.064906 0.086335 0.115915 0.161013
2026-01-04 0.026060 0.035000 0.047298 0.065905 0.094181 0.136991 0.209726
2026-01-11 0.022352 0.031397 0.044572 0.065867 0.100848 0.158831 0.268830
2026-01-18 0.019344 0.028305 0.042063 0.065723 0.107626 0.183621 0.345171
2026-01-25 0.016541 0.025075 0.038797 0.063739 0.111059 0.204458 0.426370
2026-02-01 0.014058 0.021972 0.035217 0.060507 0.111567 0.220601 0.508996
2026-02-08 0.012508 0.020172 0.033546 0.060439 0.118502 0.253766 0.658508
2026-02-15 0.011235 0.018657 0.032126 0.060589 0.126208 0.293066 0.861325
2026-02-22 0.010246 0.017502 0.031182 0.061545 0.136342 0.344671 1.161390
2026-03-01 0.009378 0.016445 0.030250 0.062355 0.146696 0.403980 1.572819
2026-03-08 0.008398 0.015062 0.028490 0.061028 0.151587 0.452051 2.026633
2026-03-15 0.007287 0.013280 0.025623 0.056432 0.145879 0.461941 2.313756
2026-03-22 0.006702 0.012482 0.024753 0.056662 0.154990 0.535507 3.174590
2026-03-29 0.006273 0.011949 0.024382 0.058146 0.169087 0.644060 4.663155
2026-04-05 0.005828 0.011323 0.023700 0.058646 0.180427 0.754075 6.685931
2026-04-12 0.005423 0.010731 0.023006 0.058966 0.191625 0.878997 9.680156
2026-04-19 0.004975 0.009991 0.021834 0.057585 0.195807 0.972236 13.030792
2026-04-26 0.004521 0.009185 0.020382 0.055007 0.194077 1.029615 16.412928
2026-05-03 0.004241 0.008751 0.019820 0.055180 0.204808 1.192749 24.662729
2026-05-10 0.003995 0.008368 0.019336 0.055510 0.216791 1.390627 38.494478
2026-05-17 0.003799 0.008081 0.019067 0.056535 0.233195 1.665132 65.691477