Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-04-05 0.007506 0.008286 0.009127 0.010104 0.011212 0.012433 0.013884
2026-04-12 0.005991 0.006946 0.008041 0.009396 0.011040 0.012984 0.015477
2026-04-19 0.004855 0.005863 0.007078 0.008665 0.010708 0.013281 0.016818
2026-04-26 0.003975 0.004972 0.006227 0.007948 0.010285 0.013406 0.017986
2026-05-03 0.003424 0.004427 0.005744 0.007635 0.010343 0.014176 0.020196
2026-05-10 0.003044 0.004062 0.005453 0.007542 0.010693 0.015425 0.023394
2026-05-17 0.002709 0.003719 0.005150 0.007392 0.010944 0.016589 0.026771
2026-05-24 0.002406 0.003387 0.004825 0.007164 0.011042 0.017545 0.030080
2026-05-31 0.002004 0.002872 0.004172 0.006344 0.010062 0.016544 0.029660
2026-06-07 0.001743 0.002543 0.003770 0.005878 0.009614 0.016402 0.030891
2026-06-14 0.001589 0.002365 0.003586 0.005752 0.009740 0.017341 0.034609
2026-06-21 0.001478 0.002244 0.003482 0.005749 0.010093 0.018796 0.039938
2026-06-28 0.001363 0.002111 0.003352 0.005698 0.010386 0.020281 0.046112
2026-07-05 0.001259 0.001988 0.003227 0.005644 0.010669 0.021841 0.053212
2026-07-12 0.001152 0.001848 0.003059 0.005487 0.010719 0.022909 0.059541
2026-07-19 0.001047 0.001704 0.002869 0.005260 0.010581 0.023517 0.064901
2026-07-26 0.000979 0.001618 0.002777 0.005222 0.010867 0.025292 0.075032
2026-08-02 0.000930 0.001563 0.002737 0.005290 0.011420 0.027962 0.090040
2026-08-09 0.000878 0.001499 0.002674 0.005297 0.011830 0.030391 0.105970
2026-08-16 0.000824 0.001425 0.002582 0.005228 0.012039 0.032309 0.121377
2026-08-23 0.000730 0.001270 0.002315 0.004727 0.011014 0.030062 0.116301
2026-08-30 0.000667 0.001168 0.002150 0.004448 0.010552 0.029572 0.119862
2026-09-06 0.000631 0.001117 0.002085 0.004395 0.010714 0.031262 0.136204