Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.068380 0.078674 0.090338 0.104599 0.121661 0.141535 0.166605
2025-11-09 0.050431 0.062119 0.076511 0.095752 0.121129 0.153921 0.200272
2025-11-16 0.040816 0.053346 0.069952 0.094024 0.128807 0.178497 0.257242
2025-11-23 0.033571 0.046236 0.064159 0.092148 0.136230 0.205680 0.329255
2025-11-30 0.028582 0.041320 0.060494 0.092655 0.147805 0.243802 0.436924
2025-12-07 0.024538 0.037063 0.057010 0.092783 0.159356 0.287274 0.579403
2025-12-14 0.020741 0.032527 0.052235 0.089734 0.164881 0.323227 0.732277
2025-12-21 0.016953 0.027379 0.045496 0.081644 0.158617 0.333907 0.838224
2025-12-28 0.014967 0.024981 0.043160 0.081469 0.169086 0.388237 1.110127
2026-01-04 0.013548 0.023358 0.041953 0.083366 0.185336 0.467183 1.546808
2026-01-11 0.012191 0.021631 0.040232 0.083795 0.198681 0.548153 2.106417
2026-01-18 0.011029 0.020097 0.038621 0.084123 0.212372 0.641608 2.885803
2026-01-25 0.009800 0.018278 0.036158 0.081996 0.219277 0.721920 3.797664
2026-02-01 0.008604 0.016357 0.033147 0.077756 0.218456 0.775737 4.715450
2026-02-08 0.007895 0.015359 0.032049 0.078386 0.234318 0.917636 6.793753
2026-02-15 0.007245 0.014396 0.030865 0.078507 0.249053 1.074602 9.790626
2026-02-22 0.006760 0.013731 0.030285 0.080301 0.271677 1.306557 15.262676
2026-03-01 0.006304 0.013064 0.029581 0.081562 0.293544 1.572647 23.980294
2026-03-08 0.005772 0.012151 0.028085 0.079874 0.302170 1.771109 34.275841
2026-03-15 0.005118 0.010866 0.025406 0.073520 0.286133 1.767098 39.584952
2026-03-22 0.004793 0.010344 0.024715 0.073935 0.303998 2.082691 63.548924
2026-03-29 0.004560 0.010018 0.024516 0.076106 0.333080 2.578289 117.371367
2026-04-05 0.004303 0.009599 0.023980 0.076892 0.355786 3.083146 211.814508