Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.049658 0.056520 0.064198 0.073466 0.084404 0.096965 0.112573
2025-12-07 0.039697 0.048251 0.058626 0.072275 0.089964 0.112398 0.143465
2025-12-14 0.031755 0.040760 0.052449 0.069014 0.092348 0.124769 0.174555
2025-12-21 0.024725 0.033200 0.044840 0.062420 0.089066 0.129273 0.197277
2025-12-28 0.021014 0.029496 0.041823 0.061687 0.094183 0.147751 0.248612
2026-01-04 0.018405 0.026941 0.040034 0.062511 0.102205 0.173885 0.325263
2026-01-11 0.016073 0.024428 0.037886 0.062380 0.108888 0.200677 0.418424
2026-01-18 0.014141 0.022245 0.035899 0.062162 0.115636 0.230899 0.539176
2026-01-25 0.012291 0.019914 0.033271 0.060243 0.118724 0.255485 0.665984
2026-02-01 0.010611 0.017632 0.030355 0.057166 0.118649 0.273562 0.792330
2026-02-08 0.009559 0.016319 0.029021 0.057059 0.125499 0.313252 1.029219
2026-02-15 0.008664 0.015166 0.027806 0.056969 0.132594 0.358413 1.344150
2026-02-22 0.007961 0.014303 0.027080 0.057978 0.143544 0.424417 1.860805
2026-03-01 0.007317 0.013467 0.026274 0.058653 0.154184 0.498701 2.578350
2026-03-08 0.006611 0.012410 0.024820 0.057385 0.158793 0.555920 3.349191
2026-03-15 0.005791 0.011016 0.022405 0.053056 0.152136 0.563420 3.801676
2026-03-22 0.005365 0.010405 0.021695 0.053251 0.161181 0.651528 5.288565
2026-03-29 0.005053 0.010003 0.021413 0.054622 0.175427 0.782895 7.937778
2026-04-05 0.004724 0.009521 0.020862 0.055082 0.186742 0.914917 11.608251
2026-04-12 0.004422 0.009061 0.020294 0.055371 0.197838 1.064143 17.167534
2026-04-19 0.004081 0.008473 0.019309 0.054085 0.201657 1.172612 23.435023
2026-04-26 0.003731 0.007824 0.018075 0.051683 0.199364 1.235431 29.708587
2026-05-03 0.003516 0.007480 0.017608 0.051839 0.209929 1.428152 45.895807