Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.051278 0.058443 0.066472 0.076179 0.087651 0.100846 0.117269
2025-11-30 0.040950 0.049884 0.060746 0.075071 0.093685 0.117359 0.150242
2025-12-07 0.033562 0.043263 0.055915 0.073938 0.099472 0.135175 0.190388
2025-12-14 0.027266 0.036901 0.050260 0.070646 0.101918 0.149745 0.231923
2025-12-21 0.021509 0.030300 0.043127 0.063883 0.098005 0.154553 0.261682
2025-12-28 0.018459 0.027086 0.040348 0.063171 0.103580 0.176746 0.331696
2026-01-04 0.016304 0.024873 0.038730 0.064064 0.112410 0.208372 0.437563
2026-01-11 0.014351 0.022670 0.036751 0.063972 0.119723 0.240710 0.566996
2026-01-18 0.012717 0.020741 0.034910 0.063782 0.127083 0.277159 0.735982
2026-01-25 0.011129 0.018654 0.032431 0.061829 0.130320 0.306413 0.913216
2026-02-01 0.009669 0.016587 0.029653 0.058671 0.130011 0.327415 1.088746
2026-02-08 0.008766 0.015425 0.028442 0.058674 0.137696 0.375970 1.429981
2026-02-15 0.007945 0.014327 0.027228 0.058548 0.145633 0.432669 1.906174
2026-02-22 0.007328 0.013546 0.026554 0.059607 0.157700 0.513814 2.680727
2026-03-01 0.006760 0.012787 0.025798 0.060319 0.169396 0.605216 3.774797
2026-03-08 0.006130 0.011812 0.024400 0.059011 0.174293 0.674733 4.958185
2026-03-15 0.005388 0.010508 0.022044 0.054513 0.166527 0.681030 5.626139
2026-03-22 0.005006 0.009946 0.021369 0.054719 0.176370 0.788783 7.961445
2026-03-29 0.004728 0.009579 0.021114 0.056149 0.192023 0.950957 12.249365
2026-04-05 0.004432 0.009135 0.020593 0.056639 0.204415 1.114026 18.352299
2026-04-12 0.004158 0.008708 0.020052 0.056948 0.216547 1.298695 27.876483
2026-04-19 0.003847 0.008157 0.019096 0.055624 0.220558 1.431431 38.832889
2026-04-26 0.003524 0.007544 0.017888 0.053142 0.217769 1.506003 49.902333