Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.173731 0.207140 0.246791 0.297760 0.362176 0.441732 5.487616e-01
2025-06-15 0.129535 0.168100 0.219003 0.292559 0.398604 0.549969 7.900510e-01
2025-06-22 0.100628 0.140071 0.197022 0.288222 0.436562 0.679902 1.136410e+00
2025-06-29 0.076961 0.113470 0.170281 0.269694 0.449870 0.786652 1.533278e+00
2025-07-06 0.053566 0.082059 0.128693 0.215467 0.385374 0.735260 1.619006e+00
2025-07-13 0.044225 0.070965 0.117524 0.211106 0.413607 0.888536 2.331699e+00
2025-07-20 0.038172 0.064093 0.112086 0.216438 0.467334 1.146518 3.713962e+00
2025-07-27 0.033714 0.059112 0.109018 0.226352 0.540813 1.535010 6.389888e+00
2025-08-03 0.029683 0.054088 0.104680 0.232545 0.612780 2.018522 1.112386e+01
2025-08-10 0.025583 0.048092 0.096846 0.227756 0.653655 2.468517 1.804886e+01
2025-08-17 0.021863 0.042164 0.087765 0.216639 0.669987 2.867947 2.785491e+01
2025-08-24 0.019470 0.038625 0.083431 0.217636 0.734807 3.670920 5.259441e+01
2025-08-31 0.017338 0.035435 0.079631 0.220641 0.822561 4.943773 1.208658e+02
2025-09-07 0.015636 0.032908 0.076936 0.226721 0.938725 6.953555 3.507889e+02
2025-09-14 0.014135 0.030567 0.074171 0.231908 1.066034 9.874841 1.326284e+03
2025-09-21 0.012469 0.027508 0.068623 0.224417 1.119653 12.504395 4.914940e+03
2025-09-28 0.010183 0.022518 0.056364 0.185344 0.934164 10.686425 4.939299e+03
2025-10-05 0.009257 0.020893 0.053809 0.185477 1.021563 14.524743 4.363204e+04
2025-10-12 0.008630 0.019934 0.053062 0.193344 1.186403 22.453608 1.832159e+07
2025-10-19 0.008137 0.019250 0.053033 0.204961 1.416653 37.905696 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007621 0.018409 0.052278 0.213066 1.646261 63.096742 NaN
2025-11-02 0.006995 0.017151 0.049781 0.210928 1.772833 91.549617 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006352 0.015745 0.046439 0.202526 1.814682 119.675222 NaN