Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.423038 0.492750 0.568133 0.655435 0.753473 0.859882 0.983821
2025-04-13 0.306879 0.393673 0.494826 0.620419 0.771104 0.944974 1.159587
2025-04-20 0.237484 0.334398 0.455653 0.616171 0.820502 1.069189 1.391701
2025-04-27 0.180401 0.279866 0.413670 0.602437 0.856879 1.182539 1.624609
2025-05-04 0.140738 0.240888 0.385694 0.602953 0.912037 1.326424 1.912656
2025-05-11 0.108855 0.206421 0.358288 0.600515 0.963625 1.472363 2.220318
2025-05-18 0.078133 0.166292 0.315139 0.568612 0.969903 1.558015 2.456753
2025-05-25 0.054191 0.130919 0.272246 0.529844 0.960817 1.621206 2.669077
2025-06-01 0.040106 0.109658 0.248836 0.518946 0.993879 1.750797 2.991700
2025-06-08 0.029228 0.091185 0.226300 0.505628 1.021369 1.875098 3.318859
2025-06-15 0.023178 0.081600 0.219156 0.519544 1.097637 2.085325 3.798857
2025-06-22 0.016012 0.065766 0.194577 0.495026 1.102118 2.177997 4.099808
2025-06-29 0.011290 0.054572 0.178026 0.485365 1.136315 2.330664 4.523213
2025-07-06 0.007646 0.044334 0.160483 0.469951 1.157581 2.463814 4.927381
2025-07-13 0.005641 0.038650 0.153210 0.476691 1.224849 2.687281 5.506724
2025-07-20 0.003943 0.032671 0.142921 0.474036 1.272470 2.879635 6.048017
2025-07-27 0.002868 0.028602 0.137084 0.481659 1.343971 3.124990 6.704860
2025-08-03 0.002028 0.024753 0.130423 0.485717 1.408380 3.362964 7.366726
2025-08-10 0.001213 0.019486 0.115887 0.463860 1.409325 3.474325 7.800812
2025-08-17 0.000659 0.014760 0.100533 0.435016 1.388585 3.538904 8.150610
2025-08-24 0.000402 0.012194 0.093072 0.428999 1.424159 3.725408 8.751448
2025-08-31 0.000232 0.009925 0.085461 0.420294 1.451465 3.896606 9.333977
2025-09-07 0.000159 0.008971 0.084382 0.434564 1.542826 4.217030 10.238167