Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.261083 0.294579 0.330877 0.373161 0.421096 0.473789 0.536158
2025-11-02 0.200628 0.242798 0.291897 0.353380 0.428453 0.517320 0.630769
2025-11-09 0.156064 0.200941 0.256624 0.330998 0.428059 0.550881 0.718811
2025-11-16 0.127514 0.173746 0.234550 0.320734 0.440353 0.601399 0.836180
2025-11-23 0.105449 0.151325 0.214973 0.310265 0.450286 0.649990 0.959123
2025-11-30 0.092579 0.139449 0.207815 0.315582 0.482696 0.734442 1.147067
2025-12-07 0.077901 0.122612 0.190862 0.303626 0.487336 0.778359 1.281248
2025-12-14 0.067398 0.110524 0.179217 0.297842 0.500302 0.836659 1.447825
2025-12-21 0.058797 0.100177 0.168756 0.292188 0.512262 0.894654 1.623298
2025-12-28 0.053773 0.095030 0.166059 0.299092 0.546506 0.995485 1.891492
2026-01-04 0.048028 0.087794 0.158710 0.296531 0.563115 1.066905 2.116825
2026-01-11 0.043739 0.082576 0.154205 0.298436 0.588155 1.157511 2.394916
2026-01-18 0.040431 0.078891 0.152316 0.305649 0.625879 1.281165 2.768698
2026-01-25 0.035551 0.071503 0.142351 0.295358 0.626623 1.330390 2.994046
2026-02-01 0.030903 0.063954 0.131064 0.280680 0.615857 1.353791 3.167002
2026-02-08 0.027701 0.058962 0.124338 0.274742 0.623281 1.418316 3.448616
2026-02-15 0.024813 0.054250 0.117571 0.267700 0.627092 1.475328 3.723661
2026-02-22 0.023285 0.052311 0.116557 0.273618 0.662265 1.612087 4.227645
2026-03-01 0.020819 0.047927 0.109498 0.264239 0.658813 1.654133 4.491972
2026-03-08 0.018976 0.044750 0.104794 0.259880 0.667254 1.727638 4.857421
2026-03-15 0.017333 0.041832 0.100319 0.255424 0.674730 1.799927 5.234697
2026-03-22 0.016479 0.040723 0.100066 0.261754 0.711941 1.958447 5.897969
2026-03-29 0.015256 0.038533 0.096843 0.259755 0.725973 2.055128 6.394489