Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.377544 0.436013 0.499429 0.573179 0.656439 0.747373 0.854050
2025-06-15 0.302811 0.381378 0.473109 0.587570 0.725974 0.887292 1.088876
2025-06-22 0.227946 0.312495 0.418506 0.559953 0.742325 0.967991 1.266590
2025-06-29 0.176356 0.262838 0.379080 0.544470 0.771024 1.067378 1.480622
2025-07-06 0.135936 0.220320 0.341848 0.525966 0.793298 1.161912 1.701776
2025-07-13 0.112775 0.197912 0.328728 0.538754 0.860310 1.325172 2.036324
2025-07-20 0.090840 0.172841 0.307320 0.536005 0.904750 1.462734 2.352611
2025-07-27 0.075679 0.155683 0.295312 0.545965 0.970064 1.639280 2.747681
2025-08-03 0.063616 0.141296 0.285317 0.557627 1.039847 1.831226 3.188743
2025-08-10 0.049670 0.119859 0.258687 0.535955 1.050827 1.930661 3.494956
2025-08-17 0.037841 0.099525 0.229898 0.505110 1.040966 1.993959 3.748762
2025-08-24 0.030519 0.087033 0.214068 0.496187 1.069552 2.126359 4.133818
2025-08-31 0.024261 0.075456 0.198294 0.485944 1.097011 2.265228 4.555451
2025-09-07 0.020806 0.069976 0.195018 0.501804 1.179096 2.515327 5.206559
2025-09-14 0.016033 0.059157 0.176536 0.480440 1.181488 2.614679 5.589897
2025-09-21 0.012705 0.051303 0.163449 0.468988 1.203392 2.755140 6.067488
2025-09-28 0.009955 0.044118 0.150198 0.454384 1.215994 2.878314 6.524571
2025-10-05 0.008560 0.041060 0.147750 0.466927 1.293253 3.145039 7.297148
2025-10-12 0.007038 0.036811 0.140614 0.465550 1.337112 3.345184 7.952314
2025-10-19 0.006020 0.034117 0.137625 0.475189 1.409815 3.616950 8.784699
2025-10-26 0.005184 0.031798 0.135245 0.486192 1.487780 3.909037 9.687873
2025-11-02 0.004028 0.027279 0.123831 0.467542 1.485062 4.014841 10.192363
2025-11-09 0.003016 0.022759 0.110794 0.440634 1.455413 4.053309 10.549371