Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.349183 0.406926 0.469644 0.542626 0.625003 0.714889 0.820168
2025-05-04 0.270722 0.346182 0.434499 0.544733 0.677815 0.832429 1.024720
2025-05-11 0.211926 0.296551 0.402926 0.544680 0.726629 0.950168 1.243133
2025-05-18 0.156227 0.240395 0.354334 0.516579 0.737855 1.024853 1.420224
2025-05-25 0.112544 0.191462 0.306850 0.482588 0.737124 1.085100 1.587835
2025-06-01 0.085820 0.161308 0.280303 0.473529 0.769525 1.194120 1.834356
2025-06-08 0.064728 0.134989 0.254609 0.461701 0.796816 1.300253 2.090713
2025-06-15 0.052471 0.120778 0.245732 0.475060 0.864780 1.474483 2.465920
2025-06-22 0.038068 0.098294 0.217884 0.452136 0.872114 1.558448 2.716747
2025-06-29 0.028312 0.082081 0.197847 0.439282 0.894555 1.669290 3.022026
2025-07-06 0.020733 0.067927 0.178392 0.423798 0.910232 1.771210 3.324451
2025-07-13 0.016679 0.060982 0.172574 0.434306 0.975373 1.964868 3.798510
2025-07-20 0.012562 0.052248 0.160997 0.432074 1.019058 2.131383 4.253054
2025-07-27 0.009773 0.046126 0.154106 0.439044 1.082897 2.342947 4.809481
2025-08-03 0.007502 0.040433 0.146662 0.443431 1.142724 2.554799 5.388693
2025-08-10 0.005146 0.032674 0.130696 0.423418 1.147184 2.661431 5.786521
2025-08-17 0.003364 0.025677 0.114129 0.397572 1.134237 2.732317 6.124909
2025-08-24 0.002404 0.021708 0.105832 0.392247 1.168631 2.904417 6.676129
2025-08-31 0.001673 0.018133 0.097317 0.384114 1.195048 3.063046 7.215902
2025-09-07 0.001312 0.016538 0.095820 0.397229 1.277684 3.352589 8.045991
2025-09-14 0.000840 0.013229 0.085407 0.378897 1.275202 3.453509 8.496475
2025-09-21 0.000556 0.010927 0.078136 0.368946 1.293680 3.604064 9.064419
2025-09-28 0.000354 0.008891 0.070812 0.356503 1.302999 3.734292 9.599826