Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.372889 0.426658 0.485028 0.553042 0.630064 0.714526 0.814113
2025-08-10 0.281045 0.349238 0.429115 0.529386 0.651688 0.795804 0.978297
2025-08-17 0.212583 0.285197 0.376448 0.499095 0.659156 0.860433 1.132185
2025-08-24 0.169266 0.244031 0.344370 0.488078 0.687703 0.954148 1.335536
2025-08-31 0.136126 0.210133 0.315821 0.476502 0.713099 1.046846 1.551043
2025-09-07 0.115874 0.190665 0.303833 0.485660 0.768142 1.187286 1.852357
2025-09-14 0.093434 0.163614 0.275938 0.466305 0.777681 1.262563 2.068713
2025-09-21 0.078026 0.144902 0.257742 0.458781 0.803756 1.365536 2.340623
2025-09-28 0.065209 0.128130 0.239796 0.448435 0.823083 1.459462 2.609603
2025-10-05 0.058331 0.120720 0.236690 0.462981 0.886435 1.633674 3.034271
2025-10-12 0.050630 0.110262 0.226245 0.462343 0.922187 1.764103 3.398503
2025-10-19 0.044995 0.102845 0.220288 0.469078 0.972175 1.925543 3.837764
2025-10-26 0.040292 0.096752 0.216471 0.480531 1.035100 2.122981 4.377569
2025-11-02 0.033697 0.085182 0.199400 0.462057 1.035599 2.201315 4.699379
2025-11-09 0.027731 0.073798 0.180706 0.436957 1.018490 2.242461 4.952936
2025-11-16 0.023849 0.066626 0.170204 0.428313 1.035534 2.355809 5.370034
2025-11-23 0.020518 0.060124 0.160092 0.418837 1.049229 2.463730 5.789536
2025-11-30 0.018612 0.057000 0.157675 0.427486 1.106216 2.673535 6.458609
2025-12-07 0.015781 0.050653 0.145897 0.410722 1.099740 2.739480 6.811954
2025-12-14 0.013803 0.046325 0.138624 0.404320 1.117836 2.864448 7.317322
2025-12-21 0.012008 0.042122 0.130896 0.395334 1.127891 2.971323 7.792658
2025-12-28 0.011187 0.040811 0.131123 0.408378 1.197714 3.232685 8.675218
2026-01-04 0.010037 0.038144 0.126873 0.407910 1.230912 3.406220 9.359203