Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.433705 0.504935 0.581928 0.671059 0.771113 0.879671 1.006067
2025-04-13 0.316280 0.405347 0.509067 0.637752 0.792037 0.969946 1.189407
2025-04-20 0.246011 0.345834 0.470562 0.635477 0.845171 1.100124 1.430447
2025-04-27 0.187912 0.290743 0.428787 0.623177 0.884761 1.219068 1.672261
2025-05-04 0.147434 0.251343 0.401129 0.625273 0.943415 1.369093 1.970216
2025-05-11 0.114734 0.216336 0.373818 0.624115 0.998184 1.520921 2.287708
2025-05-18 0.082958 0.175165 0.329952 0.592319 1.006068 1.610471 2.531500
2025-05-25 0.058020 0.138659 0.286066 0.553149 0.997814 1.676481 2.749712
2025-06-01 0.043296 0.116728 0.262267 0.542659 1.032799 1.810312 3.079981
2025-06-08 0.031842 0.097578 0.239237 0.529529 1.061849 1.938290 3.413857
2025-06-15 0.025467 0.087715 0.232223 0.544593 1.141078 2.154070 3.902848
2025-06-22 0.017841 0.071260 0.207173 0.520356 1.147463 2.251180 4.211769
2025-06-29 0.012741 0.059503 0.190154 0.510886 1.183297 2.407648 4.641629
2025-07-06 0.008755 0.048667 0.171976 0.495309 1.205601 2.543637 5.050588
2025-07-13 0.006548 0.042670 0.164587 0.502773 1.275274 2.771762 5.636664
2025-07-20 0.004651 0.036299 0.153946 0.500373 1.324512 2.967498 6.182448
2025-07-27 0.003438 0.031963 0.147992 0.508673 1.398292 3.217029 6.844210
2025-08-03 0.002475 0.027831 0.141122 0.513202 1.464599 3.458438 7.509308
2025-08-10 0.001518 0.022091 0.125794 0.490573 1.465294 3.569965 7.941811
2025-08-17 0.000852 0.016892 0.109515 0.460560 1.443522 3.633398 8.287779
2025-08-24 0.000537 0.014065 0.101652 0.454431 1.479825 3.821115 8.887032
2025-08-31 0.000321 0.011546 0.093595 0.445458 1.507538 3.992890 9.466504
2025-09-07 0.000228 0.010499 0.092557 0.460566 1.601225 4.316399 10.369597