Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.354398 0.409792 0.469940 0.539966 0.619108 0.705635 0.807246
2025-06-15 0.280314 0.354134 0.440556 0.548672 0.679733 0.832855 1.024641
2025-06-22 0.208450 0.287179 0.386315 0.519120 0.691009 0.904467 1.187883
2025-06-29 0.159729 0.239613 0.347588 0.502011 0.714577 0.993886 1.385023
2025-07-06 0.122206 0.199611 0.311824 0.482855 0.732583 1.078685 1.588010
2025-07-13 0.100922 0.178626 0.298881 0.493208 0.792512 1.227539 1.896391
2025-07-20 0.081036 0.155568 0.278717 0.489540 0.831561 1.351930 2.186002
2025-07-27 0.067425 0.139945 0.267456 0.497869 0.890053 1.512188 2.547627
2025-08-03 0.056683 0.126978 0.258235 0.507973 0.952718 1.686234 2.950235
2025-08-10 0.044266 0.107675 0.233931 0.487566 0.961017 1.773795 3.224948
2025-08-17 0.033751 0.089409 0.207759 0.458909 0.950226 1.827636 3.449403
2025-08-24 0.027158 0.077957 0.192783 0.449025 0.972061 1.939790 3.784480
2025-08-31 0.021621 0.067608 0.178468 0.439147 0.994984 2.061132 4.157644
2025-09-07 0.018596 0.062792 0.175594 0.453263 1.068138 2.284547 4.740744
2025-09-14 0.014363 0.053127 0.158915 0.433492 1.068398 2.369250 5.075488
2025-09-21 0.011416 0.046138 0.147165 0.422854 1.086629 2.491484 5.495297
2025-09-28 0.008975 0.039736 0.135268 0.409397 1.096422 2.597636 5.894557
2025-10-05 0.007754 0.037075 0.133213 0.420726 1.165231 2.834540 6.580294
2025-10-12 0.006403 0.033313 0.126885 0.419398 1.203567 3.010224 7.156483
2025-10-19 0.005505 0.030958 0.124336 0.428134 1.268168 3.250724 7.891932
2025-10-26 0.004766 0.028936 0.122345 0.438146 1.337558 3.509283 8.689481
2025-11-02 0.003721 0.024875 0.112082 0.421141 1.333525 3.598130 9.122708
2025-11-09 0.002799 0.020794 0.100320 0.396643 1.305135 3.625938 9.421373