Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.340565 0.385425 0.434095 0.490842 0.555219 0.626022 0.709849
2025-10-19 0.277886 0.338104 0.408377 0.496527 0.604292 0.731940 0.894912
2025-10-26 0.235333 0.305531 0.392988 0.510171 0.663446 0.857640 1.123219
2025-11-02 0.190840 0.262866 0.358123 0.493703 0.682405 0.936781 1.307508
2025-11-09 0.154077 0.224081 0.321892 0.469089 0.686081 0.995919 1.475037
2025-11-16 0.129636 0.198305 0.299282 0.459364 0.708394 1.083707 1.697367
2025-11-23 0.109729 0.175904 0.277946 0.447753 0.725516 1.165827 1.924471
2025-11-30 0.098229 0.164596 0.271632 0.458131 0.778115 1.310365 2.274470
2025-12-07 0.083787 0.146231 0.251191 0.442006 0.784178 1.379309 2.508658
2025-12-14 0.073295 0.132935 0.237177 0.434466 0.803403 1.472911 2.801066
2025-12-21 0.064488 0.121276 0.224259 0.426722 0.820666 1.564930 3.105038
2025-12-28 0.059872 0.116610 0.223236 0.440740 0.880601 1.744831 3.608394
2026-01-04 0.053752 0.108409 0.214845 0.440117 0.913634 1.881303 4.056166
2026-01-11 0.048986 0.102201 0.209471 0.444808 0.958474 2.049293 4.602432
2026-01-18 0.045475 0.098054 0.207665 0.456707 1.020666 2.264154 5.292753
2026-01-25 0.040052 0.089045 0.194427 0.441807 1.021586 2.345689 5.693181
2026-02-01 0.034802 0.079654 0.179041 0.419706 1.002530 2.379005 5.985302
2026-02-08 0.031214 0.073509 0.170007 0.410934 1.013540 2.484667 6.477431
2026-02-15 0.027962 0.067680 0.160876 0.400510 1.018835 2.577395 6.954407
2026-02-22 0.026282 0.065386 0.159761 0.409719 1.075218 2.807656 7.843789
2026-03-01 0.023452 0.059840 0.149971 0.395305 1.067701 2.871155 8.284284
2026-03-08 0.021346 0.055838 0.143482 0.388558 1.079724 2.989004 8.904199
2026-03-15 0.019461 0.052147 0.137281 0.381634 1.090153 3.104278 9.539760