Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.296115 0.341295 0.390457 0.447847 0.512921 0.584334 0.668556
2025-07-13 0.238611 0.299414 0.370765 0.460367 0.569557 0.697948 0.859990
2025-07-20 0.189624 0.257789 0.343630 0.458963 0.609070 0.796929 1.048835
2025-07-27 0.156078 0.229081 0.327389 0.468129 0.662856 0.920929 1.286616
2025-08-03 0.130260 0.205853 0.314403 0.479444 0.721282 1.059315 1.563271
2025-08-10 0.102182 0.173943 0.283815 0.461114 0.735922 1.140391 1.773596
2025-08-17 0.078982 0.144744 0.252003 0.435436 0.735611 1.199800 1.961034
2025-08-24 0.064055 0.125946 0.233118 0.426667 0.759785 1.298914 2.221399
2025-08-31 0.052161 0.109870 0.215786 0.417376 0.781449 1.396641 2.492174
2025-09-07 0.044948 0.100955 0.209439 0.426116 0.834985 1.553340 2.879329
2025-09-14 0.036161 0.086870 0.190753 0.408824 0.839222 1.625962 3.131797
2025-09-21 0.030063 0.077009 0.178432 0.401539 0.860713 1.731440 3.454630
2025-09-28 0.024451 0.067069 0.164471 0.389523 0.873368 1.826404 3.778435
2025-10-05 0.021464 0.062643 0.161639 0.400628 0.934699 2.022430 4.318402
2025-10-12 0.018185 0.056594 0.153868 0.399465 0.970259 2.172640 4.788386
2025-10-19 0.015920 0.052655 0.150360 0.407588 1.027562 2.374762 5.387847
2025-10-26 0.014066 0.049363 0.147801 0.417593 1.090838 2.597600 6.056931
2025-11-02 0.011469 0.043014 0.135756 0.401489 1.090376 2.682604 6.443608
2025-11-09 0.009137 0.036711 0.122299 0.378917 1.070395 2.721328 6.733832
2025-11-16 0.007664 0.032814 0.114859 0.371222 1.086569 2.845023 7.229293
2025-11-23 0.006426 0.029317 0.107766 0.363064 1.100202 2.964376 7.728583
2025-11-30 0.005731 0.027659 0.106137 0.370762 1.157849 3.197755 8.523239
2025-12-07 0.004694 0.024197 0.097614 0.355562 1.149446 3.265568 8.925825