Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.478595 0.556302 0.640109 0.736912 0.845329 0.962698 1.099042
2025-04-06 0.356178 0.455106 0.569855 0.711663 0.881006 1.075515 1.314514
2025-04-13 0.264504 0.371625 0.505106 0.681062 0.904061 1.174272 1.523125
2025-04-20 0.207547 0.320378 0.471128 0.682345 0.965080 1.324514 1.809157
2025-04-27 0.159267 0.271455 0.432532 0.672454 1.011241 1.462128 2.095320
2025-05-04 0.125486 0.236375 0.407339 0.677408 1.078350 1.634862 2.445546
2025-05-11 0.097887 0.204665 0.381716 0.678211 1.140276 1.807738 2.813878
2025-05-18 0.070697 0.166491 0.338734 0.645972 1.149923 1.908542 3.092558
2025-05-25 0.049238 0.132224 0.295018 0.605121 1.140881 1.981117 3.337852
2025-06-01 0.036673 0.111780 0.271657 0.594953 1.179827 2.130373 3.710566
2025-06-08 0.026884 0.093803 0.248851 0.581818 1.212089 2.272297 4.084363
2025-06-15 0.021591 0.084994 0.243098 0.600291 1.302176 2.516342 4.638262
2025-06-22 0.014740 0.068641 0.217059 0.575393 1.314054 2.637671 5.015864
2025-06-29 0.010414 0.057417 0.199869 0.565861 1.354056 2.811867 5.496335
2025-07-06 0.007054 0.047012 0.181317 0.549520 1.378680 2.961760 5.948795
2025-07-13 0.005225 0.041325 0.174029 0.558212 1.455677 3.213796 6.596436
2025-07-20 0.003658 0.035221 0.163252 0.556140 1.509897 3.428603 7.194641
2025-07-27 0.002671 0.031094 0.157379 0.565724 1.591154 3.702281 7.917902
2025-08-03 0.001889 0.027110 0.150392 0.570898 1.663339 3.964508 8.637908
2025-08-10 0.001121 0.021499 0.134389 0.546500 1.663370 4.083103 9.099380
2025-08-17 0.000598 0.016388 0.117218 0.513735 1.638104 4.147393 9.462109
2025-08-24 0.000361 0.013635 0.109012 0.507187 1.677146 4.348869 10.101572
2025-08-31 0.000204 0.011177 0.100579 0.497582 1.706921 4.532842 10.717855