Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.281505 0.324609 0.371532 0.426331 0.488494 0.556739 0.637257
2025-07-13 0.225023 0.282620 0.350264 0.435278 0.538957 0.660959 0.815049
2025-07-20 0.177616 0.241809 0.322750 0.431633 0.573514 0.751277 0.989905
2025-07-27 0.145378 0.213805 0.306116 0.438491 0.621944 0.865444 1.210988
2025-08-03 0.120759 0.191342 0.292932 0.447729 0.675026 0.993348 1.468792
2025-08-10 0.094304 0.161067 0.263588 0.429469 0.687238 1.067520 1.664188
2025-08-17 0.072590 0.133574 0.233392 0.404655 0.685769 1.121688 1.838432
2025-08-24 0.058666 0.115907 0.215442 0.395878 0.707519 1.213496 2.081832
2025-08-31 0.047620 0.100868 0.199064 0.386768 0.727114 1.304269 2.335477
2025-09-07 0.040929 0.092513 0.192966 0.394570 0.776674 1.450642 2.699215
2025-09-14 0.032832 0.079439 0.175492 0.378209 0.780243 1.518295 2.936517
2025-09-21 0.027136 0.070081 0.163496 0.370227 0.798008 1.613078 3.233155
2025-09-28 0.021995 0.060884 0.150434 0.358716 0.809153 1.700963 3.536155
2025-10-05 0.019259 0.056769 0.147685 0.368736 0.865839 1.883836 4.043276
2025-10-12 0.016274 0.051197 0.140427 0.367444 0.898611 2.024025 4.485150
2025-10-19 0.014215 0.047567 0.137118 0.374800 0.951744 2.213102 5.049648
2025-10-26 0.012534 0.044538 0.134698 0.383932 1.010527 2.421840 5.680498
2025-11-02 0.010192 0.038744 0.123592 0.368932 1.009971 2.501531 6.045707
2025-11-09 0.008097 0.033005 0.111214 0.347985 0.991282 2.537951 6.320355
2025-11-16 0.006775 0.029460 0.104367 0.340815 1.006317 2.654162 6.789018
2025-11-23 0.005667 0.026283 0.097848 0.333233 1.019019 2.766419 7.261767
2025-11-30 0.005046 0.024775 0.096335 0.340313 1.072764 2.985810 8.014013
2025-12-07 0.004122 0.021641 0.088524 0.326245 1.064973 3.049884 8.396291