Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 17.602017 21.285532 25.373928 30.223752 35.794253 41.966447 49.295683
2025-05-04 12.588434 17.470475 23.478130 31.303497 41.106506 52.855295 67.862750
2025-05-11 9.676105 14.983882 22.059708 31.941455 45.115353 61.786874 84.153847
2025-05-18 7.480725 12.798902 20.412192 31.702172 47.557651 68.532678 97.796846
2025-05-25 5.716124 10.779916 18.540157 30.707322 48.618455 73.261330 108.832300
2025-06-01 4.558715 9.416988 17.342106 30.400799 50.429533 78.926147 121.253988
2025-06-08 3.501123 7.962302 15.725362 29.173891 50.652323 82.221386 130.412507
2025-06-15 3.015205 7.422934 15.504353 30.069148 54.071092 90.235115 146.589633
2025-06-22 2.374040 6.420153 14.303070 29.163301 54.524382 93.793944 156.375882
2025-06-29 2.088683 6.088045 14.259276 30.202907 58.140309 102.286914 173.813185
2025-07-06 1.572479 5.094667 12.779869 28.490461 57.002637 103.275706 179.875402
2025-07-13 1.392282 4.859388 12.775149 29.474240 60.495207 111.729285 197.734773
2025-07-20 1.196476 4.562312 12.664176 30.383108 64.177236 121.095592 218.136686
2025-07-27 1.031419 4.304141 12.609022 31.424464 68.234209 131.402696 240.694508
2025-08-03 0.869485 3.994958 12.375785 32.062102 71.577211 140.668092 261.961641
2025-08-10 0.693842 3.566313 11.767185 31.821970 73.226587 147.105109 278.854915
2025-08-17 0.523707 3.068849 10.871556 30.824076 73.303370 150.776473 291.274543
2025-08-24 0.412536 2.733146 10.323117 30.516614 74.678923 156.758254 307.764745
2025-08-31 0.300087 2.314944 9.436864 29.285925 74.059181 159.085630 318.076244
2025-09-07 0.258474 2.204825 9.435537 30.183943 77.890612 169.691342 343.054718
2025-09-14 0.190199 1.899560 8.748821 29.275303 77.819247 173.044594 355.467440
2025-09-21 0.165907 1.830920 8.819419 30.318113 82.019078 184.592841 382.746931
2025-09-28 0.110845 1.501357 7.898603 28.600376 80.000649 184.186633 388.650649