Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.142221 21.929647 26.110362 31.040593 36.667752 42.862219 50.167954
2025-09-07 12.774377 17.738969 23.794597 31.603981 41.279627 52.743136 67.210460
2025-09-14 9.287496 14.499580 21.399438 30.942075 43.514723 59.221120 80.001268
2025-09-21 7.453158 12.859895 20.522280 31.730399 47.218048 67.354004 94.935624
2025-09-28 5.506360 10.571506 18.277989 30.204698 47.471067 70.791007 103.787740
2025-10-05 4.672058 9.788372 18.027142 31.347072 51.320638 79.067474 119.265686
2025-10-12 3.940438 9.001197 17.611336 32.117798 54.589049 86.614558 134.003228
2025-10-19 3.322911 8.270925 17.151645 32.710343 57.550108 93.789186 148.447084
2025-10-26 2.855418 7.715813 16.887719 33.541800 60.861384 101.553105 163.962896
2025-11-02 2.309711 6.862860 15.956086 33.132230 62.148652 106.335946 175.317530
2025-11-09 1.931677 6.276732 15.419336 33.312478 64.334573 112.496463 188.839137
2025-11-16 1.566815 5.617094 14.630540 32.939288 65.541702 117.160208 200.250023
2025-11-23 1.173964 4.783813 13.407682 31.746377 65.473807 120.136777 209.737089
2025-11-30 0.978639 4.429413 13.152068 32.371102 68.596091 128.345721 227.611572
2025-12-07 0.745517 3.858225 12.295881 31.700158 69.353548 132.746545 239.722248
2025-12-14 0.629471 3.622032 12.180671 32.503694 72.792447 141.641450 259.138701
2025-12-21 0.441962 3.015671 11.014464 30.948953 71.740912 142.989354 266.584263
2025-12-28 0.383701 2.899519 11.103241 32.113115 75.867924 153.211606 288.576746
2026-01-04 0.322853 2.736187 11.029637 32.898438 79.297104 162.351173 309.063961
2026-01-11 0.267234 2.561253 10.886544 33.502154 82.391766 171.008515 328.993252
2026-01-18 0.225597 2.431554 10.851317 34.349210 86.005305 180.685893 350.858748
2026-01-25 0.169225 2.161319 10.317484 33.931967 87.027667 185.802365 365.254537
2026-02-01 0.133145 1.984531 10.042671 34.115595 89.276488 193.168724 383.605729