Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-03-15 8.568350 10.546767 12.772131 15.444670 18.550250 22.028244 26.200043
2026-03-22 5.949583 8.496721 11.697302 15.943561 21.351746 27.928616 36.441631
2026-03-29 4.428942 7.139892 10.858930 16.180358 23.426264 32.763230 45.491943
2026-04-05 3.462014 6.212019 10.281538 16.482684 25.394312 37.412047 54.460508
2026-04-12 2.785798 5.518525 9.849007 16.822011 27.315008 42.013069 63.555463
2026-04-19 2.135321 4.690084 9.031635 16.415651 28.033764 44.905433 70.399133
2026-04-26 1.711033 4.140688 8.543334 16.406457 29.269883 48.537121 78.411183
2026-05-03 1.341349 3.591028 7.943165 16.102841 29.966959 51.357269 85.341089
2026-05-10 1.041223 3.094787 7.339374 15.687633 30.401063 53.750166 91.704776
2026-05-17 0.884716 2.872686 7.212957 16.086134 32.185797 58.304368 101.520287
2026-05-24 0.705813 2.538886 6.797155 15.884090 32.902123 61.173640 108.844400
2026-05-31 0.583786 2.311913 6.561676 15.986375 34.137581 64.922379 117.685935
2026-06-07 0.428669 1.939774 5.952878 15.315775 34.012568 66.572456 123.543688
2026-06-14 0.361843 1.814226 5.899812 15.791527 36.064187 72.036386 135.898373
2026-06-21 0.296257 1.661773 5.746132 16.025032 37.662081 76.795243 147.295397
2026-06-28 0.244982 1.535746 5.632037 16.324912 39.400902 81.877477 159.434760
2026-07-05 0.203766 1.427489 5.541408 16.661618 41.228924 87.198594 172.183264
2026-07-12 0.151903 1.235471 5.162090 16.258387 41.504493 89.716584 180.222505
2026-07-19 0.119396 1.112692 4.958203 16.249265 42.587082 93.751044 191.031167
2026-07-26 0.088921 0.972250 4.657880 15.947998 43.009834 96.559741 199.778562
2026-08-02 0.064130 0.837931 4.335838 15.536016 43.143841 98.809999 207.600613
2026-08-09 0.053343 0.790992 4.313306 15.931420 45.104243 104.654801 222.089323
2026-08-16 0.039349 0.698312 4.089797 15.730944 45.687267 107.835248 231.842837