Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 15.007187 18.267861 21.882330 26.160706 31.060314 36.469828 42.866751
2025-10-26 10.534635 14.806655 20.053710 26.858536 35.329072 45.402819 58.156116
2025-11-02 7.654387 12.148717 18.152723 26.513855 37.588982 51.480624 69.917099
2025-11-09 5.913616 10.459576 16.991581 26.643528 40.083277 57.655750 81.829360
2025-11-16 4.601698 9.035605 15.858359 26.496874 41.976268 62.950509 92.688351
2025-11-23 3.505006 7.664341 14.520228 25.782944 42.865000 66.785592 101.642323
2025-11-30 2.955077 7.080499 14.279355 26.612048 45.936112 73.691017 114.983710
2025-12-07 2.324653 6.182739 13.356485 26.217007 47.075134 77.834509 124.583896
2025-12-14 1.914478 5.610210 12.888929 26.469856 49.160890 83.380624 136.326970
2025-12-21 1.420487 4.705996 11.651530 25.245045 48.760602 85.149282 142.607382
2025-12-28 1.210389 4.401072 11.507943 25.902595 51.420713 91.619998 155.986030
2026-01-04 1.013313 4.066315 11.243926 26.294254 53.630935 97.456802 168.587685
2026-01-11 0.832845 3.734932 10.974195 26.727156 56.081063 104.006644 182.886054
2026-01-18 0.699288 3.494912 10.871390 27.482869 59.164698 111.745517 199.371280
2026-01-25 0.534077 3.072169 10.258491 27.135048 60.234676 116.247663 210.971299
2026-02-01 0.423574 2.782658 9.905587 27.267273 62.157270 122.196265 225.004955
2026-02-08 0.325619 2.480483 9.451765 27.117978 63.519398 127.233419 237.717830
2026-02-15 0.233336 2.129519 8.779132 26.391077 63.706537 130.254094 247.248748
2026-02-22 0.196783 2.028844 8.798305 27.235238 66.981980 138.686701 265.811141
2026-03-01 0.143275 1.780561 8.313328 26.833036 67.749539 142.765296 277.323224
2026-03-08 0.111736 1.634888 8.114157 27.090471 69.846902 149.244638 292.978459
2026-03-15 0.070099 1.346802 7.353264 25.843352 68.751285 149.958548 298.975611
2026-03-22 0.056684 1.276295 7.340556 26.512908 71.700485 158.073325 317.686224