Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 17.143548 20.771310 24.801904 29.587301 35.087936 41.186559 48.432319
2025-04-06 12.413874 17.267903 23.246366 31.038240 40.802684 52.506986 67.457445
2025-04-13 8.445863 13.259464 19.732876 28.837881 41.048579 56.576323 77.494066
2025-04-20 6.707427 11.641551 18.766704 29.403819 44.421821 64.370700 92.294528
2025-04-27 5.527472 10.509709 18.175269 30.224600 47.990463 72.454747 107.780969
2025-05-04 4.684075 9.690730 17.850461 31.275482 51.827499 81.009038 124.260299
2025-05-11 3.938983 8.857515 17.333661 31.894804 54.977023 88.681474 139.825118
2025-05-18 3.206702 7.871001 16.385188 31.662282 56.728889 94.342511 152.724536
2025-05-25 2.515107 6.787265 15.076282 30.634696 57.072567 97.840860 162.551630
2025-06-01 2.047242 6.043999 14.250527 30.296352 58.425867 102.853998 174.757827
2025-06-08 1.578558 5.163246 13.003882 29.032416 58.085463 105.147731 182.877820
2025-06-15 1.394148 4.918888 12.989432 30.017274 61.609243 113.684932 200.898045
2025-06-22 1.094134 4.313487 12.184735 29.544992 62.807998 118.961145 214.788700
2025-06-29 0.965878 4.152988 12.345989 31.024927 67.673114 130.623464 239.518249
2025-07-06 0.666567 3.336943 10.814045 28.827154 65.564856 130.459890 245.179731
2025-07-13 0.555118 3.089780 10.608830 29.393039 68.675531 139.317004 265.920124
2025-07-20 0.471822 2.906405 10.528468 30.213586 72.321945 149.264825 288.851182
2025-07-27 0.408555 2.771984 10.551798 31.264162 76.484052 160.302792 314.019629
2025-08-03 0.342751 2.589846 10.401156 31.883304 79.805559 169.972898 337.207041
2025-08-10 0.268776 2.318615 9.924058 31.650850 81.341924 176.454650 355.139265
2025-08-17 0.195672 1.987589 9.171964 30.623562 81.104795 179.625205 367.401288
2025-08-24 0.149581 1.767506 8.718002 30.285318 82.294829 185.484176 384.563201
2025-08-31 0.103134 1.485423 7.960558 29.021753 81.329071 187.168673 394.319279