Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 21.026685 25.287015 29.982694 35.514498 41.824208 48.768034 56.957680
2025-07-13 15.238840 20.918577 27.817238 36.689365 47.664014 60.657986 77.058340
2025-07-20 11.909724 18.171768 26.375178 37.639238 52.408200 70.804435 95.106520
2025-07-27 9.802661 16.390643 25.591957 38.922580 57.229884 80.948071 113.383198
2025-08-03 8.175563 14.881107 24.808155 39.888253 61.441765 90.307976 130.931826
2025-08-10 6.559930 13.028418 23.183089 39.342936 63.341030 96.500920 144.424333
2025-08-17 5.505241 11.848941 22.350187 39.760611 66.484771 104.403721 160.438497
2025-08-24 4.546825 10.626558 21.242309 39.565464 68.600912 110.849334 174.598663
2025-08-31 3.587947 9.184385 19.537066 38.182297 68.719571 114.309412 184.564102
2025-09-07 3.088628 8.535297 19.102393 38.797575 71.909047 122.344353 201.341435
2025-09-14 2.491312 7.533575 17.868537 37.891063 72.544323 126.502549 212.524386
2025-09-21 2.207599 7.171442 17.791170 38.982973 76.470049 135.804362 231.637786
2025-09-28 1.628320 5.968609 15.933425 36.787595 74.974579 136.982315 239.173439
2025-10-05 1.416338 5.659445 15.892228 38.011681 79.461831 147.913358 262.219993
2025-10-12 1.219172 5.327335 15.741495 38.989553 83.552597 158.360095 284.876392
2025-10-19 1.071098 5.092836 15.769200 40.309125 88.312279 170.073988 309.906433
2025-10-26 0.926610 4.817327 15.650728 41.301846 92.510213 181.000653 334.022405
2025-11-02 0.736488 4.300333 14.842440 40.741276 93.748900 186.967694 350.324947
2025-11-09 0.617575 3.994251 14.514168 41.170638 96.865619 196.226601 372.242385
2025-11-16 0.498167 3.622715 13.936562 40.970034 98.723119 203.348909 390.833696
2025-11-23 0.369308 3.122119 12.885369 39.548022 98.043278 205.954170 401.952696
2025-11-30 0.311628 2.935136 12.715475 40.180616 101.519705 216.048704 425.927705
2025-12-07 0.234569 2.578703 11.941665 39.248571 101.705714 220.201258 439.912511