Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 23.438546 28.079957 33.183627 39.183432 46.013825 53.517874 62.354579
2025-06-29 17.030308 23.222457 30.713837 40.316666 52.162144 66.154980 83.781771
2025-07-06 12.075897 18.404150 26.697655 38.093397 53.048809 71.697028 96.361043
2025-07-13 9.941392 16.594100 25.888772 39.364923 57.891996 81.925175 114.837469
2025-07-20 8.309353 15.086545 25.120351 40.373344 62.198491 91.468574 132.725024
2025-07-27 7.147611 14.022011 24.747589 41.747273 66.926003 101.661296 151.815715
2025-08-03 6.143321 12.994839 24.234326 42.757346 71.074672 111.149291 170.270631
2025-08-10 5.031255 11.548346 22.825548 42.181136 72.744119 117.122291 184.008168
2025-08-17 4.300863 10.641492 22.155006 42.637694 75.900900 125.273168 201.045355
2025-08-24 3.597225 9.632717 21.152266 42.403799 77.894311 131.724068 215.806867
2025-08-31 2.862069 8.384634 19.527172 40.913296 77.714854 134.824242 225.691851
2025-09-07 2.514966 7.912587 19.284532 41.780483 81.373268 143.866452 244.660401
2025-09-14 1.984441 6.913343 17.945957 40.693150 81.962512 148.593480 258.007674
2025-09-21 1.729353 6.544576 17.853800 41.933802 86.647794 160.086206 282.311521
2025-09-28 1.272499 5.464790 16.042298 39.643762 84.949630 161.181034 290.466028
2025-10-05 1.118126 5.219554 16.055706 40.956304 89.748211 173.067347 315.994114
2025-10-12 0.970792 4.944360 15.949326 41.996880 94.087737 184.343010 340.904475
2025-10-19 0.860848 4.757107 16.024613 43.414331 99.193884 197.090324 368.578644
2025-10-26 0.749594 4.521241 15.935153 44.456208 103.628768 208.842353 394.978460
2025-11-02 0.598024 4.053726 15.147744 43.861874 104.845413 215.057762 412.442111
2025-11-09 0.504532 3.783849 14.848867 44.332797 108.158094 225.033703 436.423241
2025-11-16 0.407828 3.441863 14.274812 44.091547 110.008735 232.461837 456.320148
2025-11-23 0.302096 2.973469 13.215380 42.553973 109.091238 234.850475 467.707778