Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-04-05 8.341298 10.251172 12.399863 14.981407 17.983107 21.347366 25.386470
2026-04-12 5.730799 8.162653 11.219981 15.280677 20.460685 26.772051 34.959331
2026-04-19 4.067905 6.556857 9.982673 14.903687 21.633550 30.344909 42.277076
2026-04-26 3.101821 5.575147 9.255346 14.897288 23.057670 34.133797 49.950136
2026-05-03 2.358849 4.710734 8.477826 14.608095 23.929489 37.116216 56.630277
2026-05-10 1.799054 3.986724 7.749299 14.224912 24.532938 39.667570 62.781026
2026-05-17 1.496246 3.632538 7.538434 14.583355 26.226517 43.840843 71.422912
2026-05-24 1.183113 3.170491 7.047489 14.387881 26.990324 46.634687 78.164786
2026-05-31 0.971405 2.856973 6.762048 14.485913 28.200954 50.144140 86.121539
2026-06-07 0.740103 2.426228 6.164817 13.928348 28.231064 51.766737 91.241049
2026-06-14 0.630891 2.257679 6.064507 14.272862 29.824204 55.959625 100.539396
2026-06-21 0.527420 2.069952 5.886175 14.434186 31.087296 59.662193 109.213241
2026-06-28 0.438218 1.901861 5.744216 14.700015 32.655793 64.124602 119.609420
2026-07-05 0.364589 1.753863 5.623848 15.002430 34.334037 68.904961 130.826876
2026-07-12 0.276491 1.513865 5.220344 14.631587 34.673988 71.368445 138.299789
2026-07-19 0.220125 1.358428 4.997943 14.625324 35.713885 75.105981 148.071810
2026-07-26 0.167387 1.184090 4.678325 14.340434 36.150428 77.760924 156.086230
2026-08-02 0.124316 1.020464 4.343965 13.962975 36.346035 79.963465 163.388690
2026-08-09 0.104303 0.957976 4.305426 14.316064 38.116790 85.189576 176.229809
2026-08-16 0.079180 0.844600 4.069942 14.123506 38.677307 88.139423 185.117886
2026-08-23 0.063112 0.771326 3.950461 14.220075 39.880797 92.378078 196.491777
2026-08-30 0.043805 0.649903 3.616895 13.670861 39.561971 93.612746 202.412820
2026-09-06 0.036378 0.613228 3.596436 14.010207 41.328184 99.062662 216.325509