Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 27.045563 32.241239 37.937464 44.616211 52.201313 60.516873 70.290491
2025-06-15 19.871826 26.849334 35.245531 45.960186 59.127179 74.632687 94.113811
2025-06-22 14.860077 22.258852 31.853893 44.926787 61.963692 83.088028 110.896881
2025-06-29 12.306644 20.097275 30.840558 46.260239 67.289450 94.398309 131.337309
2025-07-06 9.311858 16.658838 27.455736 43.786403 67.074315 98.239523 142.112134
2025-07-13 8.034330 15.491046 27.025782 45.206176 72.036775 108.971906 162.242297
2025-07-20 6.947870 14.400907 26.505473 46.328644 76.514153 119.136625 181.946805
2025-07-27 6.139068 13.616295 26.318029 47.851424 81.566444 130.244899 203.331052
2025-08-03 5.394988 12.799826 25.944291 48.981657 86.014103 140.607542 224.003637
2025-08-10 4.499168 11.514233 24.587615 48.341812 87.615922 146.800342 238.857517
2025-08-17 3.910531 10.722680 23.983575 48.854607 90.989243 155.689951 257.881238
2025-08-24 3.325971 9.814457 23.034881 48.651104 93.132681 162.737316 274.361438
2025-08-31 2.618624 8.509831 21.240061 46.941508 92.960112 166.654922 287.046924
2025-09-07 2.308816 8.092351 21.167098 48.393182 98.261141 179.484542 313.971016
2025-09-14 1.847895 7.148173 19.842017 47.318757 99.075802 185.137119 329.971509
2025-09-21 1.634203 6.821663 19.799224 48.708506 104.290849 198.105737 357.843904
2025-09-28 1.221511 5.754841 17.890415 46.130184 102.116076 198.728964 366.079038
2025-10-05 1.088882 5.536861 17.950999 47.610072 107.492184 212.185329 395.359637
2025-10-12 0.958563 5.281158 17.875294 48.779790 112.329813 224.889113 423.793164
2025-10-19 0.860945 5.111197 17.990860 50.366300 118.036903 239.281085 455.414900
2025-10-26 0.759787 4.888363 17.929594 51.543564 122.995629 252.531717 485.514727
2025-11-02 0.615382 4.415716 17.099196 50.877122 124.251925 259.291558 504.940903
2025-11-09 0.526593 4.147821 16.800698 51.411238 127.926201 270.457613 532.091306