Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 25.757244 30.744642 36.209525 42.612339 49.877487 57.834082 67.174951
2025-07-20 18.851043 25.533402 33.567637 43.806458 56.366254 71.126052 89.626780
2025-07-27 15.034727 22.506632 32.157220 45.246643 62.222162 83.165678 110.594900
2025-08-03 12.350579 20.189324 30.958142 46.343588 67.217569 93.980627 130.241967
2025-08-10 9.870369 17.591195 28.847234 45.730128 69.598381 101.270324 145.480620
2025-08-17 8.257264 15.928346 27.725221 46.188863 73.228356 110.159749 162.998880
2025-08-24 6.835823 14.275140 26.332907 45.992680 75.755340 117.508185 178.607333
2025-08-31 5.439767 12.373728 24.254485 44.460486 76.094296 121.669853 189.857248
2025-09-07 4.698702 11.497264 23.701149 45.186590 79.744100 130.594629 208.007561
2025-09-14 3.829134 10.186101 22.210288 44.199588 80.615578 135.422555 220.404413
2025-09-21 3.381987 9.641529 21.996347 45.285368 84.747693 145.186527 240.231482
2025-09-28 2.655845 8.317151 20.142432 43.330867 83.794326 147.153965 248.571302
2025-10-05 2.352288 7.946646 20.167290 44.874491 88.964054 159.162124 273.019176
2025-10-12 2.041059 7.485907 19.960234 45.997451 93.543074 170.540152 297.102918
2025-10-19 1.802862 7.150345 19.958578 47.485135 98.807699 183.193787 323.556556
2025-10-26 1.573205 6.769897 19.795919 48.623949 103.493982 195.069683 349.163562
2025-11-02 1.272676 6.072461 18.799740 47.986698 104.927917 201.654336 366.642769
2025-11-09 1.080548 5.651674 18.379151 48.463192 108.381728 211.669707 389.835097
2025-11-16 0.888403 5.151975 17.676260 48.259418 110.524733 219.526410 409.760422
2025-11-23 0.678530 4.480127 16.401968 46.667694 109.899292 222.597769 421.960449
2025-11-30 0.582177 4.226300 16.197609 47.422063 113.823611 233.625406 447.497510
2025-12-07 0.452240 3.745130 15.262277 46.396616 114.157715 238.359833 462.707511
2025-12-14 0.395394 3.589821 15.248163 47.524678 118.850548 250.942444 491.367709