Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 25.945986 30.978806 36.503085 42.987447 50.359602 58.449660 67.967127
2025-06-15 19.010182 25.750737 33.877250 44.265393 57.051015 72.128361 91.095781
2025-06-22 14.177169 21.309007 30.581102 43.241402 59.772385 80.303766 107.372746
2025-06-29 11.729497 19.234054 29.613538 44.548230 64.960078 91.321623 127.300871
2025-07-06 8.855158 15.921746 26.343399 42.152209 64.751302 95.056780 137.795261
2025-07-13 7.632550 14.800736 25.933070 43.534864 69.580068 105.511890 157.431930
2025-07-20 6.592815 13.752982 25.432815 44.626117 73.934589 115.413121 176.656109
2025-07-27 5.821097 13.002326 25.259008 46.113667 78.861908 126.256057 197.555302
2025-08-03 5.108862 12.215557 24.895703 47.205782 83.179972 136.343506 217.721704
2025-08-10 4.252980 10.978969 23.584358 46.584048 84.735115 142.374783 232.219612
2025-08-17 3.692289 10.220211 23.004626 47.087620 88.025894 151.055489 250.823083
2025-08-24 3.119507 9.310197 22.013849 46.754267 89.881570 157.567945 266.378643
2025-08-31 2.443227 8.046946 20.255700 45.046014 89.623770 161.243399 278.551733
2025-09-07 2.148998 7.644154 20.177668 46.436166 94.748462 173.704022 304.788800
2025-09-14 1.712765 6.737805 18.891853 45.375108 95.501326 179.149056 320.320652
2025-09-21 1.512717 6.429253 18.857353 46.733119 100.592716 191.829709 347.622585
2025-09-28 1.125711 5.413451 17.024173 44.243265 98.487870 192.451518 355.695386
2025-10-05 1.001835 5.206872 17.084840 45.680201 103.722703 205.590088 384.352981
2025-10-12 0.880129 4.963844 17.012967 46.814045 108.429460 217.988553 412.175314
2025-10-19 0.789410 4.803704 17.128348 48.359311 113.998567 232.065680 443.172582
2025-10-26 0.694955 4.590911 17.067100 49.493557 118.811248 244.980245 472.601715
2025-11-02 0.560714 4.141634 16.268777 48.847862 120.032286 251.577447 491.616082
2025-11-09 0.478559 3.888032 15.984392 49.370846 123.619416 262.502435 518.239635