Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 20.915530 25.110708 29.713734 35.111140 41.237637 47.946857 55.820127
2025-10-19 14.928608 20.474534 27.167463 35.714837 46.208329 58.537069 73.974003
2025-10-26 11.682320 17.821379 25.799230 36.654430 50.747088 68.123471 90.838670
2025-11-02 9.037370 15.228329 23.835404 36.217757 53.075516 74.708122 103.988776
2025-11-09 7.298500 13.476588 22.603051 36.384478 55.916547 81.821652 117.888182
2025-11-16 5.883586 11.890902 21.300527 36.169482 58.031458 87.896209 130.521448
2025-11-23 4.630615 10.284965 19.687967 35.230913 58.911942 92.183343 140.788644
2025-11-30 4.001153 9.620198 19.435785 36.256396 62.609335 100.445793 156.708023
2025-12-07 3.234819 8.525032 18.295915 35.720271 63.857184 105.200447 167.837430
2025-12-14 2.733628 7.837918 17.749724 36.053443 66.389362 111.846992 181.806162
2025-12-21 2.099084 6.699261 16.204911 34.515286 65.812977 113.799968 189.003597
2025-12-28 1.869676 6.431345 16.266234 35.751747 69.738586 122.628242 206.484812
2026-01-04 1.599572 6.023018 16.050590 36.575959 73.211966 131.187526 224.312450
2026-01-11 1.349048 5.595704 15.740355 37.207895 76.424246 139.524972 242.191073
2026-01-18 1.161721 5.284275 15.624365 38.178219 80.244167 148.936832 261.970057
2026-01-25 0.920305 4.714344 14.829930 37.727583 81.517870 154.295957 275.661047
2026-02-01 0.754992 4.322733 14.377899 37.899655 83.877220 161.459468 292.322363
2026-02-08 0.602128 3.901333 13.772744 37.677760 85.474441 167.391442 307.181478
2026-02-15 0.452470 3.403395 12.869074 36.708961 85.594045 170.826554 318.135288
2026-02-22 0.392104 3.261607 12.893646 37.767465 89.588682 180.911030 339.990798
2026-03-01 0.299783 2.902221 12.235453 37.214103 90.429473 185.617188 353.247843
2026-03-08 0.244476 2.695791 11.980913 37.557994 93.026075 193.416688 371.726748
2026-03-15 0.166862 2.274127 10.963797 35.970160 91.658520 194.212805 378.661982