Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.013972 0.015820 0.017824 0.020160 0.022809 0.025719 0.029163
2025-07-13 0.011331 0.013936 0.017005 0.020889 0.025682 0.031408 0.038782
2025-07-20 0.009818 0.012775 0.016461 0.021398 0.027853 0.036022 0.047176
2025-07-27 0.008816 0.012013 0.016185 0.022042 0.030070 0.040724 0.055993
2025-08-03 0.007780 0.011031 0.015446 0.021896 0.031111 0.043851 0.062892
2025-08-10 0.006992 0.010272 0.014888 0.021878 0.032240 0.047104 0.070172
2025-08-17 0.006238 0.009465 0.014154 0.021492 0.032741 0.049427 0.076233
2025-08-24 0.005771 0.009022 0.013891 0.021747 0.034173 0.053191 0.084746
2025-08-31 0.005272 0.008474 0.013407 0.021593 0.034926 0.055938 0.091866
2025-09-07 0.004982 0.008223 0.013349 0.022089 0.036727 0.060447 0.102188
2025-09-14 0.004480 0.007579 0.012602 0.021384 0.036478 0.061581 0.106955
2025-09-21 0.004122 0.007138 0.012144 0.021111 0.036909 0.063846 0.113806
2025-09-28 0.003711 0.006577 0.011449 0.020384 0.036522 0.064727 0.118402
2025-10-05 0.003582 0.006500 0.011575 0.021112 0.038769 0.070409 0.132199
2025-10-12 0.003431 0.006366 0.011587 0.021627 0.040662 0.075599 0.145541
2025-10-19 0.003311 0.006278 0.011672 0.022277 0.042853 0.081504 0.160769
2025-10-26 0.003092 0.005985 0.011352 0.022130 0.043504 0.084547 0.170667
2025-11-02 0.002910 0.005745 0.011112 0.022112 0.044395 0.088110 0.181907
2025-11-09 0.002699 0.005431 0.010703 0.021722 0.044504 0.090127 0.190142
2025-11-16 0.002580 0.005290 0.010620 0.021979 0.045945 0.094929 0.204624
2025-11-23 0.002426 0.005064 0.010348 0.021824 0.046510 0.097967 0.215590
2025-11-30 0.002350 0.004995 0.010390 0.022326 0.048505 0.104156 0.233999
2025-12-07 0.002163 0.004674 0.009884 0.021613 0.047810 0.104528 0.239426