Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.018725 0.021214 0.023913 0.027061 0.030630 0.034555 0.039199
2025-07-27 0.015073 0.018556 0.022661 0.027862 0.034281 0.041956 0.051845
2025-08-03 0.012645 0.016478 0.021262 0.027677 0.036071 0.046706 0.061239
2025-08-10 0.011004 0.015022 0.020273 0.027653 0.037783 0.051240 0.070544
2025-08-17 0.009593 0.013632 0.019125 0.027163 0.038662 0.054580 0.078397
2025-08-24 0.008722 0.012846 0.018662 0.027487 0.040590 0.059415 0.088672
2025-08-31 0.007857 0.011956 0.017928 0.027292 0.041678 0.063055 0.097454
2025-09-07 0.007341 0.011515 0.017783 0.027921 0.043994 0.068646 0.109624
2025-09-14 0.006537 0.010544 0.016732 0.027027 0.043835 0.070376 0.115839
2025-09-21 0.005963 0.009875 0.016079 0.026682 0.044475 0.073361 0.124269
2025-09-28 0.005367 0.009111 0.015197 0.025865 0.044241 0.074861 0.130295
2025-10-05 0.005185 0.009019 0.015403 0.026873 0.047142 0.081787 0.146188
2025-10-12 0.004943 0.008808 0.015402 0.027546 0.049558 0.088158 0.161832
2025-10-19 0.004744 0.008654 0.015487 0.028376 0.052329 0.095397 0.179755
2025-10-26 0.004407 0.008221 0.015035 0.028187 0.053212 0.099286 0.191773
2025-11-02 0.004128 0.007867 0.014693 0.028163 0.054384 0.103780 0.205325
2025-11-09 0.003811 0.007414 0.014130 0.027663 0.054591 0.106446 0.215506
2025-11-16 0.003629 0.007204 0.014003 0.027994 0.056437 0.112408 0.232810
2025-11-23 0.003399 0.006879 0.013628 0.027795 0.057200 0.116280 0.246153
2025-11-30 0.003282 0.006771 0.013668 0.028436 0.059721 0.123890 0.268019
2025-12-07 0.003009 0.006321 0.012986 0.027526 0.058925 0.124587 0.275083
2025-12-14 0.002817 0.006021 0.012587 0.027173 0.059276 0.127706 0.287703
2025-12-21 0.002594 0.005640 0.011989 0.026342 0.058513 0.128361 0.294843