Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.021935 0.024921 0.028176 0.031990 0.036339 0.041146 0.046869
2025-03-02 0.016845 0.020828 0.025558 0.031600 0.039126 0.048212 0.060042
2025-03-09 0.014470 0.018946 0.024581 0.032216 0.042321 0.055281 0.073238
2025-03-16 0.012463 0.017095 0.023208 0.031898 0.043983 0.060273 0.084028
2025-03-23 0.011376 0.016247 0.022947 0.032880 0.047308 0.067624 0.098619
2025-03-30 0.009910 0.014663 0.021442 0.031867 0.047602 0.070629 0.107192
2025-04-06 0.008868 0.013551 0.020455 0.031436 0.048602 0.074628 0.117502
2025-04-13 0.007808 0.012288 0.019091 0.030253 0.048270 0.076487 0.124571
2025-04-20 0.007401 0.011981 0.019142 0.031246 0.051399 0.083973 0.141339
2025-04-27 0.006997 0.011632 0.019077 0.032020 0.054211 0.091162 0.158292
2025-05-04 0.006674 0.011378 0.019134 0.032980 0.057394 0.099217 0.177500
2025-05-11 0.006165 0.010759 0.018517 0.032717 0.058413 0.103617 0.190622
2025-05-18 0.005758 0.010290 0.018132 0.032851 0.060201 0.109632 0.207517
2025-05-25 0.005300 0.009689 0.017463 0.032412 0.060908 0.113768 0.221361
2025-06-01 0.005046 0.009434 0.017385 0.033046 0.063660 0.121928 0.243805
2025-06-08 0.004686 0.008945 0.016832 0.032720 0.064520 0.126532 0.259615
2025-06-15 0.004529 0.008829 0.016966 0.033728 0.068089 0.136748 0.287967
2025-06-22 0.004140 0.008226 0.016110 0.032689 0.067416 0.138370 0.298382
2025-06-29 0.003856 0.007806 0.015575 0.032246 0.067919 0.142421 0.314409
2025-07-06 0.003515 0.007243 0.014707 0.031032 0.066672 0.142664 0.322011
2025-07-13 0.003429 0.007197 0.014889 0.032051 0.070328 0.153754 0.355326
2025-07-20 0.003325 0.007105 0.014964 0.032846 0.073559 0.164206 0.388281
2025-07-27 0.003244 0.007053 0.015122 0.033832 0.077307 0.176161 0.426094