Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-04-05 0.005003 0.005601 0.006244 0.006988 0.007826 0.008741 0.009818
2026-04-12 0.003981 0.004795 0.005739 0.006918 0.008355 0.010052 0.012215
2026-04-19 0.003414 0.004323 0.005434 0.006898 0.008782 0.011133 0.014306
2026-04-26 0.002966 0.003910 0.005114 0.006769 0.008996 0.011905 0.016018
2026-05-03 0.002679 0.003658 0.004952 0.006798 0.009382 0.012892 0.018066
2026-05-10 0.002418 0.003404 0.004751 0.006738 0.009617 0.013669 0.019865
2026-05-17 0.002257 0.003269 0.004693 0.006859 0.010100 0.014815 0.022279
2026-05-24 0.002024 0.003006 0.004424 0.006642 0.010058 0.015176 0.023536
2026-05-31 0.001848 0.002811 0.004236 0.006523 0.010141 0.015717 0.025097
2026-06-07 0.001686 0.002621 0.004038 0.006366 0.010146 0.016124 0.026466
2026-06-14 0.001623 0.002579 0.004061 0.006555 0.010708 0.017452 0.029449
2026-06-21 0.001552 0.002516 0.004045 0.006676 0.011164 0.018636 0.032287
2026-06-28 0.001487 0.002462 0.004040 0.006819 0.011675 0.019967 0.035527
2026-07-05 0.001388 0.002341 0.003917 0.006751 0.011818 0.020677 0.037727
2026-07-12 0.001306 0.002245 0.003827 0.006731 0.012040 0.021536 0.040271
2026-07-19 0.001215 0.002124 0.003684 0.006605 0.012056 0.022021 0.042145
2026-07-26 0.001156 0.002057 0.003630 0.006634 0.012357 0.023048 0.045154
2026-08-02 0.001089 0.001969 0.003534 0.006575 0.012486 0.023759 0.047596
2026-08-09 0.001053 0.001935 0.003532 0.006694 0.012963 0.025173 0.051588
2026-08-16 0.000974 0.001817 0.003365 0.006482 0.012773 0.025256 0.052817
2026-08-23 0.000914 0.001730 0.003251 0.006365 0.012762 0.025694 0.054834
2026-08-30 0.000855 0.001639 0.003125 0.006213 0.012666 0.025947 0.056466
2026-09-06 0.000839 0.001634 0.003163 0.006397 0.013280 0.027729 0.061652