Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.016468 0.018660 0.021038 0.023812 0.026960 0.030423 0.034523
2025-06-15 0.013234 0.016301 0.019920 0.024509 0.030180 0.036969 0.045728
2025-06-22 0.010818 0.014099 0.018195 0.023691 0.030891 0.040021 0.052513
2025-06-29 0.009308 0.012702 0.017140 0.023380 0.031952 0.043349 0.059718
2025-07-06 0.007987 0.011341 0.015903 0.022581 0.032140 0.045383 0.065219
2025-07-13 0.007433 0.010939 0.015884 0.023389 0.034541 0.050578 0.075537
2025-07-20 0.006907 0.010502 0.015740 0.023960 0.036599 0.055405 0.085716
2025-07-27 0.006499 0.010185 0.015722 0.024683 0.038904 0.060747 0.097123
2025-08-03 0.005937 0.009569 0.015179 0.024520 0.039788 0.063940 0.105401
2025-08-10 0.005482 0.009070 0.014763 0.024500 0.040865 0.067483 0.114511
2025-08-17 0.004999 0.008479 0.014138 0.024067 0.041198 0.069802 0.121735
2025-08-24 0.004711 0.008183 0.013967 0.024366 0.042768 0.074286 0.133034
2025-08-31 0.004352 0.007742 0.013524 0.024178 0.043512 0.077478 0.142475
2025-09-07 0.004170 0.007594 0.013575 0.024864 0.045871 0.083716 0.158054
2025-09-14 0.003774 0.007025 0.012830 0.024036 0.045380 0.084745 0.163979
2025-09-21 0.003494 0.006643 0.012387 0.023720 0.045801 0.087465 0.173341
2025-09-28 0.003176 0.006160 0.011716 0.022909 0.045193 0.088168 0.178776
2025-10-05 0.003094 0.006124 0.011882 0.023729 0.047836 0.095363 0.197902
2025-10-12 0.002987 0.006030 0.011927 0.024309 0.050043 0.101870 0.216201
2025-10-19 0.002904 0.005976 0.012044 0.025042 0.052619 0.109328 0.237187
2025-10-26 0.002731 0.005722 0.011740 0.024877 0.053299 0.112914 0.250139
2025-11-02 0.002586 0.005515 0.011516 0.024857 0.054281 0.117208 0.265032
2025-11-09 0.002413 0.005234 0.011113 0.024417 0.054309 0.119440 0.275472