Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022656 0.025719 0.029068 0.033008 0.037520 0.042532 0.048530
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017501 0.021565 0.026410 0.032630 0.040430 0.049921 0.062401
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014723 0.019154 0.024748 0.032364 0.042519 0.055670 0.074119
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.013178 0.017925 0.024208 0.033187 0.045789 0.062986 0.088471
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011623 0.016416 0.023018 0.032855 0.047278 0.067866 0.099864
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010806 0.015795 0.022921 0.033949 0.050787 0.075843 0.116549
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009535 0.014356 0.021462 0.032830 0.050808 0.078557 0.125431
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008614 0.013329 0.020485 0.032293 0.051591 0.082416 0.136439
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007669 0.012165 0.019170 0.031057 0.051077 0.084075 0.143896
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007355 0.011963 0.019340 0.032219 0.054590 0.092670 0.164156
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007064 0.011765 0.019486 0.033336 0.058109 0.101599 0.186027
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006773 0.011537 0.019552 0.034304 0.061440 0.110504 0.208871
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006257 0.010886 0.018856 0.033890 0.062292 0.115116 0.224355
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005804 0.010309 0.018238 0.033560 0.063270 0.120082 0.241211
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005406 0.009794 0.017683 0.033281 0.064297 0.125212 0.258986
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005202 0.009614 0.017721 0.034130 0.067607 0.135187 0.288186
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004861 0.009148 0.017181 0.033787 0.068469 0.140251 0.307352
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004728 0.009068 0.017367 0.034915 0.072475 0.152300 0.343702
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004345 0.008466 0.016486 0.033761 0.071517 0.153573 0.355321
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004062 0.008040 0.015917 0.033208 0.071793 0.157565 0.373865
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003729 0.007488 0.015049 0.031935 0.070343 0.157503 0.382493
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003663 0.007482 0.015304 0.033132 0.074607 0.171058 0.427016
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003594 0.007463 0.015530 0.034283 0.078880 0.185104 0.474770