Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.021342 0.024210 0.027327 0.030968 0.035107 0.039667 0.045074
2025-05-25 0.016370 0.020195 0.024718 0.030466 0.037587 0.046133 0.057188
2025-06-01 0.014026 0.018317 0.023689 0.030921 0.040425 0.052517 0.069125
2025-06-08 0.012125 0.016587 0.022439 0.030697 0.042084 0.057289 0.079225
2025-06-15 0.011056 0.015746 0.022154 0.031573 0.045123 0.063993 0.092417
2025-06-22 0.009607 0.014177 0.020648 0.030512 0.045240 0.066531 0.099857
2025-06-29 0.008602 0.013112 0.019710 0.030108 0.046173 0.070205 0.109172
2025-07-06 0.007598 0.011931 0.018462 0.029073 0.045992 0.072112 0.115867
2025-07-13 0.007227 0.011676 0.018576 0.030118 0.049085 0.079266 0.131429
2025-07-20 0.006834 0.011340 0.018518 0.030858 0.051721 0.085879 0.146685
2025-07-27 0.006525 0.011104 0.018589 0.031797 0.054739 0.093336 0.164012
2025-08-03 0.006039 0.010524 0.018032 0.031610 0.055801 0.097555 0.176069
2025-08-10 0.005627 0.010043 0.017616 0.031654 0.057315 0.102766 0.190561
2025-08-17 0.005171 0.009443 0.016942 0.031179 0.057858 0.106307 0.202364
2025-08-24 0.004904 0.009158 0.016797 0.031643 0.060144 0.113184 0.221062
2025-08-31 0.004564 0.008707 0.016309 0.031413 0.061087 0.117612 0.235413
2025-09-07 0.004405 0.008582 0.016410 0.032311 0.064270 0.126573 0.259589
2025-09-14 0.004012 0.007971 0.015539 0.031224 0.063425 0.127560 0.267598
2025-09-21 0.003737 0.007566 0.015029 0.030810 0.063888 0.131173 0.281370
2025-09-28 0.003415 0.007041 0.014239 0.029751 0.062919 0.131757 0.288704
2025-10-05 0.003342 0.007021 0.014464 0.030821 0.066520 0.142169 0.318454
2025-10-12 0.003241 0.006933 0.014540 0.031579 0.069510 0.151525 0.346740
2025-10-19 0.003164 0.006890 0.014705 0.032540 0.073025 0.162315 0.379332