Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007188 0.008093 0.009069 0.010203 0.011484 0.012885 0.014538
2026-02-01 0.005625 0.006841 0.008262 0.010046 0.012230 0.014821 0.018134
2026-02-08 0.004823 0.006188 0.007870 0.010102 0.012991 0.016616 0.021526
2026-02-15 0.004202 0.005630 0.007469 0.010019 0.013476 0.018016 0.024463
2026-02-22 0.003833 0.005331 0.007337 0.010229 0.014309 0.019888 0.028145
2026-03-01 0.003361 0.004832 0.006868 0.009904 0.014344 0.020633 0.030290
2026-03-08 0.003012 0.004462 0.006531 0.009716 0.014524 0.021563 0.032740
2026-03-15 0.002699 0.004109 0.006180 0.009459 0.014561 0.022257 0.034867
2026-03-22 0.002576 0.004027 0.006216 0.009779 0.015484 0.024344 0.039306
2026-03-29 0.002438 0.003907 0.006179 0.009974 0.016218 0.026182 0.043493
2026-04-05 0.002320 0.003805 0.006159 0.010189 0.016990 0.028131 0.048021
2026-04-12 0.002149 0.003604 0.005959 0.010087 0.017222 0.029198 0.051132
2026-04-19 0.002008 0.003441 0.005815 0.010072 0.017611 0.030580 0.054953
2026-04-26 0.001853 0.003244 0.005597 0.009912 0.017734 0.031512 0.058059
2026-05-03 0.001751 0.003128 0.005508 0.009967 0.018237 0.033147 0.062584
2026-05-10 0.001636 0.002981 0.005351 0.009885 0.018478 0.034318 0.066330
2026-05-17 0.001575 0.002925 0.005352 0.010092 0.019272 0.036569 0.072348
2026-05-24 0.001445 0.002731 0.005086 0.009772 0.019029 0.036829 0.074449
2026-05-31 0.001345 0.002585 0.004898 0.009586 0.019028 0.037550 0.077528
2026-06-07 0.001244 0.002433 0.004685 0.009333 0.018872 0.037945 0.079958
2026-06-14 0.001220 0.002427 0.004755 0.009649 0.019890 0.040783 0.087795
2026-06-21 0.001183 0.002392 0.004764 0.009841 0.020667 0.043183 0.094899
2026-06-28 0.001149 0.002362 0.004783 0.010053 0.021500 0.045763 0.102626