Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.018487 0.020970 0.023671 0.026827 0.030416 0.034373 0.039069
2025-05-04 0.014819 0.018283 0.022382 0.027597 0.034065 0.041837 0.051907
2025-05-11 0.012406 0.016200 0.020955 0.027363 0.035797 0.046547 0.061340
2025-05-18 0.010810 0.014785 0.020006 0.027384 0.037576 0.051216 0.070944
2025-05-25 0.009450 0.013451 0.018922 0.026975 0.038580 0.054777 0.079242
2025-06-01 0.008612 0.012705 0.018508 0.027371 0.040636 0.059869 0.090083
2025-06-08 0.007756 0.011820 0.017772 0.027171 0.041734 0.063593 0.099184
2025-06-15 0.007283 0.011439 0.017718 0.027947 0.044317 0.069702 0.112452
2025-06-22 0.006476 0.010456 0.016638 0.027003 0.044088 0.071382 0.118793
2025-06-29 0.005907 0.009789 0.015981 0.026646 0.044727 0.074444 0.127606
2025-07-06 0.005300 0.009000 0.015048 0.025734 0.044334 0.075729 0.133468
2025-07-13 0.005103 0.008876 0.015196 0.026646 0.047104 0.082557 0.149578
2025-07-20 0.004864 0.008667 0.015193 0.027318 0.049555 0.089124 0.166023
2025-07-27 0.004664 0.008507 0.015263 0.028125 0.052326 0.096523 0.184782
2025-08-03 0.004326 0.008066 0.014788 0.027885 0.053129 0.100366 0.197140
2025-08-10 0.004059 0.007730 0.014472 0.027906 0.054410 0.105195 0.211858
2025-08-17 0.003760 0.007306 0.013956 0.027489 0.054793 0.108310 0.223420
2025-08-24 0.003589 0.007116 0.013864 0.027893 0.056828 0.114833 0.242589
2025-08-31 0.003362 0.006793 0.013489 0.027689 0.057604 0.118874 0.256911
2025-09-07 0.003262 0.006719 0.013596 0.028480 0.060504 0.127529 0.282014
2025-09-14 0.002989 0.006264 0.012896 0.027517 0.059596 0.128076 0.289257
2025-09-21 0.002798 0.005965 0.012494 0.027153 0.059941 0.131327 0.302883
2025-09-28 0.002570 0.005569 0.011857 0.026224 0.058951 0.131556 0.309543