Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.011340 0.012817 0.014415 0.016272 0.018373 0.020675 0.023390
2025-11-09 0.008761 0.010741 0.013064 0.015990 0.019582 0.023852 0.029321
2025-11-16 0.007517 0.009744 0.012505 0.016181 0.020956 0.026960 0.035099
2025-11-23 0.006514 0.008837 0.011849 0.016047 0.021759 0.029277 0.039956
2025-11-30 0.005931 0.008370 0.011659 0.016428 0.023184 0.032439 0.046134
2025-12-07 0.005181 0.007573 0.010913 0.015929 0.023294 0.033750 0.049794
2025-12-14 0.004637 0.006998 0.010402 0.015680 0.023688 0.035434 0.054070
2025-12-21 0.004126 0.006413 0.009808 0.015231 0.023712 0.036534 0.057513
2025-12-28 0.003927 0.006276 0.009862 0.015752 0.025234 0.039983 0.064833
2026-01-04 0.003700 0.006070 0.009785 0.016049 0.026409 0.042964 0.071640
2026-01-11 0.003514 0.005912 0.009762 0.016420 0.027719 0.046243 0.079184
2026-01-18 0.003252 0.005601 0.009463 0.016301 0.028191 0.048164 0.084577
2026-01-25 0.003030 0.005343 0.009237 0.016298 0.028879 0.050534 0.091018
2026-02-01 0.002780 0.005015 0.008864 0.016007 0.029039 0.052007 0.096003
2026-02-08 0.002633 0.004857 0.008770 0.016198 0.030066 0.055075 0.104127
2026-02-15 0.002451 0.004618 0.008512 0.016064 0.030478 0.057049 0.110361
2026-02-22 0.002359 0.004536 0.008533 0.016446 0.031878 0.060947 0.120585
2026-03-01 0.002157 0.004230 0.008110 0.015946 0.031544 0.061532 0.124364
2026-03-08 0.002006 0.004009 0.007829 0.015697 0.031671 0.063000 0.130009
2026-03-15 0.001844 0.003754 0.007463 0.015247 0.031359 0.063569 0.133848
2026-03-22 0.001805 0.003742 0.007575 0.015769 0.033062 0.068308 0.146764
2026-03-29 0.001743 0.003679 0.007578 0.016067 0.034318 0.072222 0.158248
2026-04-05 0.001692 0.003635 0.007616 0.016438 0.035758 0.076624 0.171154