Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.017148 0.019411 0.021862 0.024716 0.027949 0.031497 0.035690
2025-09-07 0.013736 0.016888 0.020595 0.025281 0.031050 0.037929 0.046766
2025-09-14 0.011256 0.014641 0.018851 0.024480 0.031818 0.041077 0.053679
2025-09-21 0.009694 0.013203 0.017773 0.024168 0.032906 0.044458 0.060943
2025-09-28 0.008352 0.011836 0.016555 0.023428 0.033210 0.046673 0.066690
2025-10-05 0.007804 0.011463 0.016599 0.024352 0.035799 0.052139 0.077357
2025-10-12 0.007249 0.011000 0.016441 0.024927 0.037882 0.057003 0.087535
2025-10-19 0.006793 0.010625 0.016351 0.025558 0.040059 0.062134 0.098518
2025-10-26 0.006212 0.009993 0.015803 0.025412 0.040990 0.065399 0.106838
2025-11-02 0.005742 0.009484 0.015388 0.025416 0.042126 0.069030 0.115999
2025-11-09 0.005234 0.008864 0.014734 0.024960 0.042443 0.071328 0.123106
2025-11-16 0.004932 0.008555 0.014555 0.025264 0.044033 0.075821 0.134274
2025-11-23 0.004561 0.008101 0.014108 0.025089 0.044820 0.079072 0.143685
2025-11-30 0.004349 0.007909 0.014091 0.025665 0.046974 0.084882 0.158207
2025-12-07 0.003942 0.007329 0.013341 0.024851 0.046537 0.086012 0.164201
2025-12-14 0.003651 0.006934 0.012887 0.024534 0.046974 0.088739 0.173390
2025-12-21 0.003329 0.006453 0.012235 0.023784 0.046515 0.089737 0.179298
2025-12-28 0.003255 0.006440 0.012455 0.024722 0.049387 0.097299 0.198795
2026-01-04 0.003141 0.006338 0.012495 0.025305 0.051599 0.103740 0.216579
2026-01-11 0.003041 0.006255 0.012563 0.025946 0.053974 0.110682 0.235986
2026-01-18 0.002862 0.005995 0.012258 0.025798 0.054703 0.114327 0.248736
2026-01-25 0.002713 0.005785 0.012037 0.025802 0.055749 0.118697 0.263408
2026-02-01 0.002529 0.005487 0.011613 0.025339 0.055748 0.120846 0.273361