Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.017644 0.019986 0.022526 0.025487 0.028846 0.032537 0.036905
2025-07-27 0.014217 0.017497 0.021361 0.026255 0.032293 0.039511 0.048808
2025-08-03 0.011936 0.015546 0.020047 0.026080 0.033971 0.043961 0.057607
2025-08-10 0.010393 0.014177 0.019119 0.026059 0.035577 0.048213 0.066327
2025-08-17 0.009064 0.012867 0.018035 0.025592 0.036392 0.051331 0.073664
2025-08-24 0.008242 0.012126 0.017598 0.025891 0.038194 0.055852 0.083268
2025-08-31 0.007427 0.011288 0.016907 0.025709 0.039215 0.059263 0.091487
2025-09-07 0.006941 0.010873 0.016771 0.026297 0.041384 0.064495 0.102865
2025-09-14 0.006182 0.009958 0.015781 0.025456 0.041231 0.066109 0.108667
2025-09-21 0.005642 0.009329 0.015168 0.025133 0.041834 0.068907 0.116556
2025-09-28 0.005080 0.008610 0.014340 0.024369 0.041617 0.070317 0.122199
2025-10-05 0.004903 0.008512 0.014515 0.025283 0.044279 0.076701 0.136874
2025-10-12 0.004672 0.008311 0.014508 0.025903 0.046523 0.082625 0.151419
2025-10-19 0.004485 0.008167 0.014588 0.026683 0.049121 0.089398 0.168157
2025-10-26 0.004167 0.007759 0.014164 0.026506 0.049947 0.093033 0.179374
2025-11-02 0.003904 0.007425 0.013843 0.026484 0.051046 0.097236 0.192023
2025-11-09 0.003604 0.006998 0.013311 0.026009 0.051228 0.099704 0.201476
2025-11-16 0.003432 0.006798 0.013189 0.026314 0.052945 0.105255 0.217571
2025-11-23 0.003215 0.006493 0.012837 0.026128 0.053661 0.108874 0.230017
2025-11-30 0.003104 0.006390 0.012873 0.026726 0.056015 0.115972 0.250378
2025-12-07 0.002847 0.005966 0.012232 0.025871 0.055266 0.116615 0.256944
2025-12-14 0.002665 0.005685 0.011858 0.025543 0.055599 0.119536 0.268724
2025-12-21 0.002455 0.005326 0.011297 0.024766 0.054890 0.120160 0.275408