Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.016089 0.018230 0.020554 0.023265 0.026341 0.029724 0.033731
2025-06-15 0.012929 0.015927 0.019465 0.023953 0.029499 0.036140 0.044709
2025-06-22 0.010567 0.013774 0.017778 0.023154 0.030196 0.039128 0.051353
2025-06-29 0.009090 0.012408 0.016747 0.022849 0.031234 0.042387 0.058409
2025-07-06 0.007799 0.011077 0.015538 0.022069 0.031420 0.044380 0.063799
2025-07-13 0.007257 0.010684 0.015518 0.022858 0.033768 0.049464 0.073900
2025-07-20 0.006743 0.010256 0.015377 0.023416 0.035781 0.054187 0.083867
2025-07-27 0.006344 0.009946 0.015359 0.024122 0.038036 0.059415 0.095037
2025-08-03 0.005796 0.009344 0.014828 0.023963 0.038901 0.062542 0.103148
2025-08-10 0.005351 0.008857 0.014421 0.023944 0.039956 0.066012 0.112074
2025-08-17 0.004879 0.008279 0.013811 0.023521 0.040282 0.068286 0.119156
2025-08-24 0.004595 0.007985 0.013635 0.023799 0.041794 0.072632 0.130147
2025-08-31 0.004244 0.007553 0.013200 0.023611 0.042514 0.075742 0.139366
2025-09-07 0.004066 0.007408 0.013249 0.024281 0.044819 0.081844 0.154619
2025-09-14 0.003680 0.006853 0.012522 0.023472 0.044341 0.082854 0.160427
2025-09-21 0.003407 0.006480 0.012089 0.023164 0.044753 0.085518 0.169600
2025-09-28 0.003096 0.006009 0.011435 0.022372 0.044161 0.086210 0.174933
2025-10-05 0.003016 0.005973 0.011596 0.023172 0.046744 0.093248 0.193659
2025-10-12 0.002912 0.005881 0.011639 0.023738 0.048901 0.099614 0.211579
2025-10-19 0.002831 0.005828 0.011754 0.024454 0.051419 0.106911 0.232130
2025-10-26 0.002662 0.005581 0.011457 0.024293 0.052084 0.110422 0.244824
2025-11-02 0.002521 0.005379 0.011238 0.024273 0.053045 0.114626 0.259417
2025-11-09 0.002352 0.005104 0.010845 0.023844 0.053073 0.116815 0.269656