Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.016572 0.018765 0.021143 0.023914 0.027054 0.030503 0.034582
2025-08-17 0.012733 0.015662 0.019110 0.023473 0.028850 0.035269 0.043527
2025-08-24 0.010895 0.014181 0.018275 0.023754 0.030910 0.039956 0.052290
2025-08-31 0.009432 0.012857 0.017324 0.023587 0.032162 0.043523 0.059773
2025-09-07 0.008564 0.012152 0.017021 0.024129 0.034270 0.048267 0.069142
2025-09-14 0.007460 0.010967 0.015900 0.023362 0.034405 0.050212 0.074683
2025-09-21 0.006686 0.010154 0.015191 0.023064 0.035113 0.052945 0.081510
2025-09-28 0.005930 0.009278 0.014289 0.022360 0.035099 0.054543 0.086690
2025-10-05 0.005664 0.009117 0.014431 0.023241 0.037561 0.060070 0.098423
2025-10-12 0.005355 0.008851 0.014377 0.023789 0.039516 0.064930 0.109482
2025-10-19 0.005092 0.008631 0.014368 0.024392 0.041591 0.070121 0.121509
2025-10-26 0.004711 0.008177 0.013932 0.024232 0.042349 0.073158 0.130092
2025-11-02 0.004384 0.007793 0.013591 0.024223 0.043397 0.076832 0.140233
2025-11-09 0.004018 0.007310 0.013039 0.023793 0.043664 0.079165 0.148189
2025-11-16 0.003802 0.007073 0.012895 0.024078 0.045233 0.083928 0.161023
2025-11-23 0.003540 0.006729 0.012527 0.023908 0.045931 0.087135 0.171170
2025-11-30 0.003401 0.006601 0.012542 0.024457 0.048030 0.093120 0.187219
2025-12-07 0.003103 0.006143 0.011899 0.023680 0.047475 0.093952 0.193072
2025-12-14 0.002891 0.005835 0.011517 0.023378 0.047828 0.096571 0.202753
2025-12-21 0.002651 0.005450 0.010955 0.022664 0.047278 0.097325 0.208595
2025-12-28 0.002605 0.005456 0.011169 0.023557 0.050122 0.105224 0.230306
2026-01-04 0.002525 0.005385 0.011221 0.024112 0.052295 0.111892 0.249927
2026-01-11 0.002455 0.005329 0.011297 0.024724 0.054635 0.119096 0.271370