Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.014951 0.016929 0.019073 0.021573 0.024407 0.027521 0.031206
2025-07-20 0.011985 0.014739 0.017984 0.022091 0.027157 0.033210 0.041005
2025-07-27 0.010440 0.013585 0.017505 0.022756 0.029620 0.038307 0.050170
2025-08-03 0.009045 0.012324 0.016602 0.022605 0.030834 0.041752 0.057395
2025-08-10 0.008028 0.011381 0.015935 0.022587 0.032088 0.045222 0.064848
2025-08-17 0.007096 0.010423 0.015103 0.022188 0.032689 0.047746 0.071109
2025-08-24 0.006517 0.009888 0.014787 0.022452 0.034202 0.051629 0.079625
2025-08-31 0.005919 0.009252 0.014243 0.022293 0.035024 0.054506 0.086821
2025-09-07 0.005567 0.008949 0.014159 0.022806 0.036890 0.059088 0.097043
2025-09-14 0.004985 0.008225 0.013348 0.022077 0.036691 0.060360 0.101989
2025-09-21 0.004570 0.007729 0.012848 0.021796 0.037169 0.062728 0.108910
2025-09-28 0.004118 0.007128 0.012122 0.021061 0.036802 0.063626 0.113348
2025-10-05 0.003969 0.007037 0.012252 0.021819 0.039100 0.069311 0.126812
2025-10-12 0.003791 0.006880 0.012253 0.022351 0.041047 0.074554 0.139991
2025-10-19 0.003650 0.006774 0.012333 0.023023 0.043295 0.080505 0.155010
2025-10-26 0.003402 0.006448 0.011987 0.022871 0.043984 0.083631 0.164913
2025-11-02 0.003195 0.006182 0.011725 0.022852 0.044915 0.087269 0.176121
2025-11-09 0.002958 0.005837 0.011286 0.022449 0.045053 0.089376 0.184431
2025-11-16 0.002823 0.005680 0.011193 0.022716 0.046538 0.094242 0.198809
2025-11-23 0.002650 0.005431 0.010901 0.022555 0.047135 0.097356 0.209782
2025-11-30 0.002564 0.005353 0.010940 0.023074 0.049181 0.103603 0.228013
2025-12-07 0.002356 0.005004 0.010402 0.022337 0.048497 0.104063 0.233608
2025-12-14 0.002209 0.004773 0.010089 0.022052 0.048759 0.106553 0.243933