Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.016282 0.018416 0.020725 0.023410 0.026448 0.029779 0.033709
2025-10-19 0.013116 0.016101 0.019605 0.024023 0.029451 0.035906 0.044178
2025-10-26 0.011051 0.014346 0.018434 0.023884 0.030966 0.039875 0.051956
2025-11-02 0.009650 0.013115 0.017612 0.023887 0.032428 0.043677 0.059661
2025-11-09 0.008426 0.011914 0.016623 0.023456 0.033139 0.046410 0.066047
2025-11-16 0.007675 0.011244 0.016235 0.023738 0.034764 0.050424 0.074458
2025-11-23 0.006915 0.010463 0.015587 0.023542 0.035623 0.053352 0.081483
2025-11-30 0.006475 0.010096 0.015484 0.024103 0.037599 0.058019 0.091443
2025-12-07 0.005779 0.009266 0.014599 0.023370 0.037502 0.059495 0.096550
2025-12-14 0.005261 0.008660 0.013994 0.023003 0.037912 0.061742 0.103005
2025-12-21 0.004747 0.008009 0.013257 0.022342 0.037764 0.063047 0.107971
2025-12-28 0.004591 0.007934 0.013441 0.023208 0.040202 0.068750 0.120766
2026-01-04 0.004373 0.007740 0.013421 0.023741 0.042145 0.073828 0.133028
2026-01-11 0.004182 0.007577 0.013439 0.024340 0.044253 0.079365 0.146601
2026-01-18 0.003891 0.007209 0.013064 0.024200 0.045012 0.082556 0.156154
2026-01-25 0.003650 0.006909 0.012785 0.024202 0.046020 0.086253 0.166933
2026-02-01 0.003371 0.006513 0.012295 0.023766 0.046156 0.088331 0.174769
2026-02-08 0.003213 0.006333 0.012192 0.024052 0.047692 0.093152 0.188338
2026-02-15 0.003007 0.006043 0.011855 0.023853 0.048252 0.096121 0.198437
2026-02-22 0.002908 0.005957 0.011904 0.024422 0.050383 0.102333 0.215651
2026-03-01 0.002671 0.005571 0.011331 0.023679 0.049775 0.102983 0.221318
2026-03-08 0.002493 0.005294 0.010954 0.023307 0.049900 0.105127 0.230304
2026-03-15 0.002300 0.004968 0.010455 0.022637 0.049335 0.105778 0.236090