Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.033783 0.038538 0.043759 0.049919 0.057000 0.064891 0.074365
2024-12-29 0.026979 0.033551 0.041441 0.051640 0.064512 0.080274 0.101118
2025-01-05 0.021954 0.028908 0.037769 0.049940 0.066307 0.087670 0.117859
2025-01-12 0.018759 0.025871 0.035382 0.049113 0.068563 0.095327 0.135293
2025-01-19 0.015994 0.022939 0.032618 0.047196 0.068787 0.099881 0.148586
2025-01-26 0.014866 0.022106 0.032584 0.048999 0.074341 0.112419 0.174801
2025-02-02 0.013914 0.021381 0.032567 0.050733 0.079866 0.125389 0.203130
2025-02-09 0.013092 0.020735 0.032556 0.052406 0.085388 0.138845 0.233760
2025-02-16 0.011954 0.019457 0.031402 0.052076 0.087552 0.147007 0.256409
2025-02-23 0.011093 0.018529 0.030695 0.052366 0.090716 0.157074 0.283440
2025-03-02 0.010159 0.017381 0.029498 0.051668 0.092040 0.164012 0.305547
2025-03-09 0.009635 0.016877 0.029335 0.052738 0.096584 0.177101 0.340601
2025-03-16 0.008878 0.015909 0.028300 0.052185 0.098186 0.185146 0.367367
2025-03-23 0.008530 0.015646 0.028501 0.053945 0.104368 0.202587 0.415227
2025-03-30 0.007737 0.014483 0.026939 0.052168 0.103436 0.205971 0.434449
2025-04-06 0.007146 0.013646 0.025904 0.051302 0.104201 0.212785 0.461733
2025-04-13 0.006480 0.012603 0.024378 0.049295 0.102390 0.214043 0.476917
2025-04-20 0.006313 0.012529 0.024740 0.051182 0.108966 0.233766 0.536364
2025-04-27 0.006147 0.012437 0.025055 0.052998 0.115572 0.254278 0.600407
2025-05-04 0.005981 0.012332 0.025331 0.054750 0.122218 0.275620 0.669352
2025-05-11 0.005631 0.011809 0.024684 0.054404 0.124050 0.286095 0.712816
2025-05-18 0.005366 0.011444 0.024343 0.054708 0.127417 0.300546 0.768351
2025-05-25 0.005035 0.010908 0.023584 0.053976 0.128238 0.308937 0.809175