Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.013888 0.015725 0.017716 0.020038 0.022669 0.025562 0.028983
2025-07-13 0.011263 0.013852 0.016902 0.020763 0.025525 0.031216 0.038544
2025-07-20 0.009755 0.012695 0.016359 0.021268 0.027686 0.035810 0.046904
2025-07-27 0.008758 0.011936 0.016084 0.021908 0.029893 0.040491 0.055683
2025-08-03 0.007727 0.010959 0.015348 0.021763 0.030929 0.043605 0.062555
2025-08-10 0.006944 0.010204 0.014793 0.021745 0.032054 0.046844 0.069807
2025-08-17 0.006195 0.009402 0.014064 0.021362 0.032554 0.049161 0.075848
2025-08-24 0.005730 0.008961 0.013802 0.021615 0.033979 0.052909 0.084330
2025-08-31 0.005234 0.008417 0.013320 0.021462 0.034729 0.055646 0.091426
2025-09-07 0.004945 0.008166 0.013262 0.021956 0.036521 0.060135 0.101709
2025-09-14 0.004447 0.007526 0.012520 0.021255 0.036275 0.061267 0.106464
2025-09-21 0.004090 0.007087 0.012063 0.020980 0.036698 0.063514 0.113276
2025-09-28 0.003682 0.006530 0.011371 0.020257 0.036312 0.064391 0.117855
2025-10-05 0.003554 0.006452 0.011497 0.020980 0.038547 0.070047 0.131597
2025-10-12 0.003403 0.006319 0.011508 0.021492 0.040431 0.075213 0.144890
2025-10-19 0.003285 0.006231 0.011592 0.022138 0.042611 0.081092 0.160064
2025-10-26 0.003068 0.005940 0.011274 0.021991 0.043259 0.084124 0.169932
2025-11-02 0.002887 0.005702 0.011036 0.021974 0.044146 0.087674 0.181137
2025-11-09 0.002677 0.005390 0.010629 0.021586 0.044256 0.089686 0.189354
2025-11-16 0.002559 0.005250 0.010546 0.021842 0.045690 0.094470 0.203793
2025-11-23 0.002406 0.005026 0.010277 0.021688 0.046253 0.097498 0.214729
2025-11-30 0.002331 0.004957 0.010318 0.022186 0.048238 0.103661 0.233079
2025-12-07 0.002144 0.004638 0.009815 0.021478 0.047548 0.104036 0.238500