Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007688 0.008666 0.009722 0.010949 0.012335 0.013853 0.015642
2026-01-11 0.006236 0.007602 0.009199 0.011206 0.013666 0.016585 0.020320
2026-01-18 0.005272 0.006783 0.008649 0.011127 0.014338 0.018369 0.023830
2026-01-25 0.004619 0.006211 0.008265 0.011117 0.014988 0.020077 0.027304
2026-02-01 0.004059 0.005667 0.007824 0.010938 0.015336 0.021352 0.030253
2026-02-08 0.003688 0.005327 0.007601 0.011000 0.015977 0.023033 0.033868
2026-02-15 0.003335 0.004968 0.007305 0.010910 0.016363 0.024353 0.037042
2026-02-22 0.003125 0.004789 0.007242 0.011139 0.017217 0.026400 0.041456
2026-03-01 0.002797 0.004400 0.006826 0.010786 0.017138 0.027010 0.043674
2026-03-08 0.002547 0.004107 0.006527 0.010580 0.017256 0.027911 0.046403
2026-03-15 0.002311 0.003815 0.006203 0.010299 0.017217 0.028542 0.048719
2026-03-22 0.002229 0.003764 0.006258 0.010641 0.018226 0.030957 0.054234
2026-03-29 0.002119 0.003660 0.006223 0.010833 0.019009 0.033077 0.059473
2026-04-05 0.002028 0.003581 0.006222 0.011083 0.019916 0.035484 0.065449
2026-04-12 0.001891 0.003409 0.006045 0.011005 0.020222 0.036845 0.069617
2026-04-19 0.001778 0.003270 0.005915 0.010995 0.020647 0.038446 0.074363
2026-04-26 0.001651 0.003095 0.005704 0.010819 0.020740 0.039430 0.077996
2026-05-03 0.001568 0.002995 0.005624 0.010880 0.021288 0.041312 0.083550
2026-05-10 0.001473 0.002864 0.005473 0.010791 0.021532 0.042616 0.088044
2026-05-17 0.001424 0.002818 0.005484 0.011017 0.022419 0.045255 0.095515
2026-05-24 0.001311 0.002638 0.005218 0.010668 0.022106 0.045445 0.097832
2026-05-31 0.001224 0.002503 0.005031 0.010465 0.022074 0.046202 0.101422
2026-06-07 0.001136 0.002360 0.004817 0.010187 0.021862 0.046563 0.104164