Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.011844 0.013388 0.015059 0.017001 0.019198 0.021606 0.024446
2025-11-09 0.009141 0.011210 0.013636 0.016695 0.020450 0.024915 0.030635
2025-11-16 0.007840 0.010166 0.013050 0.016892 0.021884 0.028161 0.036675
2025-11-23 0.006793 0.009218 0.012365 0.016752 0.022723 0.030585 0.041757
2025-11-30 0.006183 0.008729 0.012165 0.017148 0.024210 0.033888 0.048215
2025-12-07 0.005400 0.007897 0.011386 0.016627 0.024325 0.035260 0.052046
2025-12-14 0.004833 0.007297 0.010852 0.016367 0.024739 0.037024 0.056523
2025-12-21 0.004300 0.006687 0.010234 0.015901 0.024769 0.038181 0.060138
2025-12-28 0.004092 0.006544 0.010290 0.016446 0.026360 0.041791 0.067803
2026-01-04 0.003855 0.006329 0.010209 0.016755 0.027588 0.044909 0.074925
2026-01-11 0.003661 0.006163 0.010184 0.017141 0.028955 0.048334 0.082814
2026-01-18 0.003391 0.005845 0.009881 0.017035 0.029480 0.050397 0.088556
2026-01-25 0.003161 0.005577 0.009648 0.017037 0.030211 0.052902 0.095349
2026-02-01 0.002898 0.005233 0.009256 0.016729 0.030374 0.054437 0.100564
2026-02-08 0.002744 0.005066 0.009157 0.016927 0.031444 0.057643 0.109068
2026-02-15 0.002555 0.004817 0.008887 0.016787 0.031876 0.059715 0.115615
2026-02-22 0.002458 0.004731 0.008907 0.017184 0.033339 0.063794 0.126327
2026-03-01 0.002247 0.004411 0.008465 0.016661 0.032990 0.064410 0.130299
2026-03-08 0.002089 0.004180 0.008172 0.016401 0.033125 0.065955 0.136234
2026-03-15 0.001921 0.003914 0.007791 0.015934 0.032805 0.066566 0.140295
2026-03-22 0.001879 0.003902 0.007907 0.016480 0.034589 0.071536 0.153856
2026-03-29 0.001815 0.003836 0.007910 0.016790 0.035903 0.075638 0.165906
2026-04-05 0.001762 0.003789 0.007949 0.017177 0.037408 0.080245 0.179436