| Cryptocurrency | Latest Price | Market Cap | TWAP Price | Below TWAP? | Reg Risk | TWAP Risk | SMA Risk | Weighted Risk | Base Bear ($) | Base DD (%) | Panic Bear ($) | Panic DD (%) | Blood Bear ($) | Blood DD (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $66,670.36 | $1334.13B | $41,094.52 | β NO | 0.06 | 0.73 | 0.22 | 0.43 | $41,094.52 | -38.36% | $41,094.52 | -38.36% | $32,875.61 | -50.69% |
| ETH | $2,048.22 | $247.20B | $1,822.40 | β NO | 0.09 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.39 | $1,822.40 | -11.02% | $1,822.40 | -11.02% | $1,457.92 | -28.82% |
| XRP | $1.32 | $80.97B | $0.82 | β NO | 0.02 | 0.79 | 0.13 | 0.42 | $0.78 | -41.14% | $0.62 | -52.91% | $0.41 | -68.83% |
| BNB | $585.53 | $79.84B | $331.09 | β NO | 0.06 | 0.74 | 0.12 | 0.41 | $356.01 | -39.20% | $284.81 | -51.36% | $165.54 | -71.73% |
| SOL | $79.41 | $45.48B | $86.90 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.81 | 0.16 | 0.44 | $44.84 | -43.53% | $35.87 | -54.83% | $35.87 | -54.83% |
| TRX | $0.31 | $29.73B | $0.10 | β NO | 0.09 | 0.92 | 0.21 | 0.53 | $0.15 | -52.78% | $0.12 | -62.23% | $0.06 | -81.11% |
| DOGE | $0.09 | $15.43B | $0.10 | β YES | 0.01 | 0.49 | 0.11 | 0.27 | $0.08 | -7.82% | $0.07 | -26.25% | $0.05 | -43.26% |
| ADA | $0.25 | $8.85B | $0.52 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.11 | $0.56 | 127.88% | $0.18 | -25.00% | $0.15 | -40.00% |
| BCH | $442.12 | $8.85B | $347.27 | β NO | 0.06 | 0.89 | 0.15 | 0.49 | $224.57 | -49.21% | $179.66 | -59.36% | $173.63 | -60.73% |
| LINK | $8.68 | $6.15B | $11.79 | β YES | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.25 | $8.60 | -0.92% | $6.88 | -20.73% | $5.89 | -32.11% |
| XLM | $0.16 | $5.43B | $0.18 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.71 | 0.18 | 0.40 | $0.10 | -37.81% | $0.08 | -50.24% | $0.08 | -50.24% |
| LTC | $52.89 | $4.07B | $89.88 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.20 | $52.89 | 0.00% | $51.87 | -1.91% | $44.94 | -15.03% |
| AVAX | $8.95 | $3.86B | $28.79 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.11 | $19.83 | 121.60% | $6.71 | -25.00% | $5.37 | -40.00% |
| HBAR | $0.09 | $3.82B | $0.12 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.62 | 0.17 | 0.36 | $0.06 | -30.75% | $0.05 | -44.60% | $0.05 | -44.60% |
| SUI20947 | $0.87 | $3.44B | $1.85 | β YES | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 0.08 | $2.72 | 211.97% | $0.65 | -25.00% | $0.52 | -40.00% |
| TAO22974 | $306.95 | $3.31B | $302.08 | β NO | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.54 | $142.58 | -53.55% | $114.07 | -62.84% | $114.07 | -62.84% |
| CRO | $0.07 | $2.97B | $0.12 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.23 | $0.07 | 0.00% | $0.06 | -11.88% | $0.06 | -11.94% |
| MNT27075 | $0.68 | $2.21B | $0.84 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.15 | $0.68 | 0.00% | $0.68 | 0.00% | $0.47 | -31.05% |
| DOT | $1.25 | $2.10B | $10.46 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.08 | $3.89 | 210.63% | $0.94 | -25.00% | $0.75 | -40.00% |
| FTM | $0.70 | $1.95B | $0.43 | β NO | 0.12 | 0.89 | 0.28 | 0.54 | $0.33 | -53.32% | $0.26 | -62.66% | $0.22 | -69.12% |
| NEAR | $1.21 | $1.56B | $4.18 | β YES | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.23 | $1.31 | 8.09% | $0.91 | -25.00% | $0.73 | -40.00% |
| TON11419 | $1.32 | $1.53B | $1.77 | β YES | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.42 | $0.79 | -39.87% | $0.63 | -51.90% | $0.63 | -51.90% |
| AAVE | $94.87 | $1.46B | $169.40 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.66 | 0.19 | 0.39 | $61.55 | -35.12% | $49.24 | -48.10% | $49.24 | -48.10% |
| ONDO | $0.26 | $1.27B | $0.81 | β YES | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.24 | $0.28 | 5.50% | $0.20 | -25.00% | $0.16 | -40.00% |
| ICP | $2.30 | $1.27B | $14.85 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.25 | $2.29 | -0.44% | $1.72 | -25.00% | $1.38 | -40.00% |
| ETC | $8.04 | $1.25B | $19.65 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | $31.58 | 293.02% | $6.03 | -25.00% | $4.82 | -40.00% |
| ALGO | $0.12 | $1.05B | $0.43 | β YES | 0.10 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 0.31 | $0.09 | -19.82% | $0.09 | -25.00% | $0.07 | -40.00% |
| QNT | $76.28 | $920.85M | $75.17 | β NO | 0.11 | 0.64 | 0.26 | 0.40 | $47.38 | -37.89% | $37.90 | -50.31% | $37.58 | -50.73% |
| WLD | $0.27 | $879.32M | $1.38 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.09 | $0.72 | 163.75% | $0.20 | -25.00% | $0.16 | -40.00% |
| ATOM | $1.70 | $853.92M | $9.63 | β YES | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.12 | $3.70 | 117.27% | $1.28 | -25.00% | $1.02 | -40.00% |
| KAS | $0.03 | $843.92M | $0.07 | β YES | 0.47 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.27 | $0.03 | -6.38% | $0.02 | -25.00% | $0.02 | -40.00% |
| GT | $6.46 | $744.51M | $6.33 | β NO | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.26 | $6.29 | -2.62% | $5.04 | -22.10% | $3.16 | -51.05% |
| ENA | $0.08 | $693.91M | $0.48 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.05 | $0.42 | 411.99% | $0.06 | -25.00% | $0.05 | -40.00% |
| APT21794 | $0.86 | $683.27M | $7.00 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.10 | $2.07 | 140.38% | $0.65 | -25.00% | $0.52 | -40.00% |
| FLR | $0.01 | $649.20M | $0.02 | β YES | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.10 | $0.02 | 146.79% | $0.01 | -25.00% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| FIL | $0.84 | $646.38M | $15.07 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.07 | $2.95 | 250.47% | $0.63 | -25.00% | $0.50 | -40.00% |
| XDC | $0.03 | $612.90M | $0.04 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.28 | $0.03 | -10.30% | $0.02 | -28.24% | $0.02 | -38.42% |
| VET | $0.01 | $600.34M | $0.03 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.07 | $0.02 | 257.66% | $0.01 | -25.00% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| NEXO | $0.86 | $553.89M | $0.93 | β YES | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.27 | $0.80 | -7.06% | $0.64 | -25.65% | $0.46 | -45.98% |
| FET | $0.24 | $532.36M | $0.47 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.81 | 0.26 | 0.46 | $0.13 | -46.09% | $0.13 | -46.09% | $0.13 | -46.09% |
| XTZ | $0.35 | $380.33M | $1.73 | β YES | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.11 | $0.78 | 122.76% | $0.26 | -25.00% | $0.21 | -40.00% |
| SEI | $0.05 | $367.24M | $0.33 | β YES | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.12 | $0.11 | 100.10% | $0.04 | -25.00% | $0.03 | -40.00% |
| GNO | $118.78 | $313.51M | $140.08 | β YES | 0.12 | 0.52 | 0.34 | 0.36 | $82.10 | -30.88% | $65.68 | -44.70% | $65.68 | -44.70% |
| BSV | $14.90 | $298.12M | $95.04 | β YES | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.16 | $23.65 | 58.75% | $11.17 | -25.00% | $8.94 | -40.00% |
| AERO29270 | $0.31 | $291.89M | $0.85 | β YES | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.20 | $0.40 | 26.43% | $0.24 | -25.00% | $0.19 | -40.00% |
| INJ | $2.81 | $281.37M | $11.54 | β YES | 0.02 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.24 | $2.99 | 6.19% | $2.11 | -25.00% | $1.69 | -40.00% |
| CFX | $0.05 | $272.61M | $0.20 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.68 | 0.27 | 0.40 | $0.03 | -38.16% | $0.03 | -38.16% | $0.03 | -40.00% |
| IOTA | $0.06 | $271.54M | $0.19 | β YES | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.15 | $0.10 | 61.62% | $0.05 | -25.00% | $0.04 | -40.00% |
| IMX10603 | $0.13 | $264.73M | $1.28 | β YES | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.06 | $0.52 | 294.76% | $0.10 | -25.00% | $0.08 | -40.00% |
| JASMY | $0.01 | $261.77M | $0.12 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.84 | 0.48 | 0.52 | $0.00 | -51.54% | $0.00 | -51.54% | $0.00 | -51.54% |
| OP | $0.11 | $235.31M | $1.29 | β YES | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.12 | $0.23 | 113.05% | $0.08 | -25.00% | $0.07 | -40.00% |
| SAND | $0.08 | $225.07M | $0.76 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.07 | $0.26 | 239.95% | $0.06 | -25.00% | $0.05 | -40.00% |
| ENS | $5.59 | $214.62M | $17.53 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.07 | $18.96 | 239.07% | $4.19 | -25.00% | $3.36 | -40.00% |
| HNT | $1.08 | $200.47M | $7.22 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.23 | $1.19 | 10.42% | $0.81 | -25.00% | $0.65 | -40.00% |
| NEO | $2.83 | $199.57M | $15.58 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.13 | $5.47 | 93.31% | $2.12 | -25.00% | $1.70 | -40.00% |
| AXS | $1.13 | $192.06M | $16.82 | β YES | 0.07 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.24 | $1.18 | 4.49% | $0.85 | -25.00% | $0.68 | -40.00% |
| PENDLE | $1.08 | $179.66M | $1.90 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.88 | 0.21 | 0.48 | $0.56 | -48.23% | $0.45 | -58.58% | $0.45 | -58.58% |
| MANA | $0.09 | $174.13M | $0.51 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.10 | $0.22 | 154.42% | $0.07 | -25.00% | $0.05 | -40.00% |
| THETA | $0.15 | $148.12M | $1.65 | β YES | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.06 | $0.65 | 336.62% | $0.11 | -25.00% | $0.09 | -40.00% |
| GALA | $0.00 | $139.77M | $0.05 | β YES | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.06 | $0.01 | 295.29% | $0.00 | -25.00% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| RUNE | $0.40 | $139.69M | $3.17 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.09 | $1.05 | 164.57% | $0.30 | -25.00% | $0.24 | -40.00% |
| AKT | $0.46 | $120.97M | $1.84 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.69 | 0.28 | 0.41 | $0.28 | -39.30% | $0.28 | -39.30% | $0.28 | -40.00% |
| EGLD | $3.82 | $113.31M | $64.91 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.08 | $12.30 | 221.69% | $2.87 | -25.00% | $2.29 | -40.00% |
| EGLD | $3.82 | $113.29M | $64.91 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.08 | $12.31 | 222.02% | $2.87 | -25.00% | $2.29 | -40.00% |
| AR | $1.71 | $112.50M | $15.27 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.11 | $3.75 | 119.03% | $1.29 | -25.00% | $1.03 | -40.00% |
| LPT | $2.01 | $100.09M | $10.01 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.15 | 0.26 | $1.96 | -2.52% | $1.51 | -25.00% | $1.21 | -40.00% |
| ZRX | $0.10 | $87.28M | $0.43 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.11 | $0.24 | 129.29% | $0.08 | -25.00% | $0.06 | -40.00% |
| DYDX | $0.10 | $86.01M | $2.76 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.23 | $0.11 | 9.17% | $0.08 | -25.00% | $0.06 | -40.00% |
| W | $0.01 | $76.22M | $2.36 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.13 | $0.03 | 94.91% | $0.01 | -25.00% | $0.01 | -40.00% |
| CKB | $0.00 | $70.94M | $0.01 | β YES | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.08 | $0.00 | 206.05% | $0.00 | -25.00% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| AIOZ | $0.06 | $70.19M | $0.29 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 0.42 | $0.03 | -40.59% | $0.03 | -40.59% | $0.03 | -40.59% |
| RON14101 | $0.09 | $67.73M | $1.10 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.10 | $0.23 | 159.13% | $0.07 | -25.00% | $0.05 | -40.00% |
| FLOW | $0.03 | $49.61M | $4.45 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 0.11 | $0.07 | 129.50% | $0.02 | -25.00% | $0.02 | -40.00% |
| TRB | $14.93 | $41.23M | $38.54 | β YES | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.20 | $18.65 | 24.87% | $11.20 | -25.00% | $8.96 | -40.00% |
| LRC | $0.02 | $24.64M | $0.28 | β YES | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.03 | $0.15 | 730.90% | $0.01 | -25.00% | $0.01 | -40.00% |
| OSMO | $0.03 | $23.69M | $1.44 | β YES | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.13 | $0.06 | 99.85% | $0.02 | -25.00% | $0.02 | -40.00% |
| DIA | $0.18 | $21.50M | $0.87 | β YES | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.15 | $0.31 | 70.04% | $0.13 | -25.00% | $0.11 | -40.00% |
| FORTH | $0.24 | $3.45M | $5.49 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.05 | $1.34 | 454.38% | $0.18 | -25.00% | $0.14 | -40.00% |
| STRK | $0.03 | $187,078 | $17.91 | β YES | 0.01 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.55 | $0.01 | -54.86% | $0.01 | -54.86% | $0.01 | -54.86% |
| UNI7083 | $0.00 | $17,388 | $0.00 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.01 | 0.34 | $0.00 | -26.45% | $0.00 | -26.45% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| COMP5692 | $0.00 | $2,593 | $0.00 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.20 | $0.00 | 27.46% | $0.00 | -25.00% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| MATIC | $0.22 | N/A | $0.63 | β YES | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.08 | $0.64 | 197.65% | $0.16 | -25.00% | $0.13 | -40.00% |
| MKR | $1,741.16 | N/A | $1,376.77 | β NO | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.24 | 0.44 | $982.35 | -43.58% | $785.88 | -54.86% | $688.38 | -60.46% |
| ARB11841 | $0.00 | N/A | $0.05 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.22 | 0.39 | $0.00 | -35.47% | $0.00 | -35.47% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| STX4847 | $0.00 | N/A | $0.42 | β YES | 0.31 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.40 | $0.00 | -38.12% | $0.00 | -38.12% | $0.00 | -40.00% |
| GRT6719 | $0.45 | N/A | $4.39 | β YES | 0.05 | 0.58 | 0.13 | 0.33 | $0.34 | -25.14% | $0.34 | -25.14% | $0.27 | -40.00% |
| OM | $0.01 | N/A | $0.60 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.07 | $0.04 | 247.61% | $0.01 | -25.00% | $0.01 | -40.00% |
| EOS | $0.08 | N/A | $2.21 | β YES | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.07 | $0.28 | 257.22% | $0.06 | -25.00% | $0.05 | -40.00% |
| KLAY | $0.05 | N/A | $0.48 | β YES | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.10 | $0.13 | 154.13% | $0.04 | -25.00% | $0.03 | -40.00% |
| APE18876 | $0.09 | N/A | $0.48 | β YES | 0.00 | 0.97 | 0.17 | 0.52 | $0.04 | -52.00% | $0.04 | -52.00% | $0.04 | -52.00% |
We estimate downside βbottomsβ for three scenariosβBase Bear, Panic Bear, and Blood Bearβby analyzing current price relative to a composite risk score. The composite risk blends three independent risk measures: a regression deviation, a TWAP divergence, and a 20-week SMA distance, padded by a 4-year halving cycle bias.
log(price) over the full history (with time scaled), then compute the proportional deviation (Close β Trend) / Trend. Scaled to [0,1] with a mild time ramp and halving cycle modulation.(Close β TWAP) / Close, clip at 0, and rescale to [0,1].Composite Bear Risk = Reg 0.30 + TWAP 0.50 + SMA 0.20. (TWAP prioritized for finding bottoms).
For each scenario we also compute a Drawdown % = Percentage drop required to hit the target.
This is a research tool, not financial advice.