Cryptocurrency Risk–Reward Analysis (Base / Bull / Moon Boy)






Cryptocurrency Latest Price Regression Risk TWAP Risk SMA Risk Weighted Risk (Bull) Weighted Risk (Adj) Base Peak Bull Peak Moon Boy Peak Base Reward Bull Reward Moon Reward
UNI7083 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 $0.04 $0.07 $0.10 242.51 404.18 606.28
COMP5692 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 119.03 198.39 297.59
EOS $0.27 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.02 $8.42 $14.04 $21.06 31.19 51.98 77.97
VET $0.02 0.01 0.00 0.13 0.03 0.03 $0.31 $0.52 $0.78 19.59 32.66 48.98
ETC $15.96 0.03 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.03 $335.69 $559.48 $839.22 21.03 35.06 52.59
STRK $0.02 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.03 0.03 $0.36 $0.60 $0.90 22.40 37.33 56.00
ALGO $0.18 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.04 0.04 $2.34 $3.90 $5.85 13.15 21.92 32.88
MATIC $0.22 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.04 $3.30 $5.50 $8.26 15.26 25.44 38.15
ENA $0.40 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.04 0.04 $6.12 $10.20 $15.30 15.25 25.41 38.12
FET $0.24 0.03 0.00 0.12 0.04 0.04 $3.92 $6.53 $9.79 16.18 26.97 40.45
FIL $1.51 0.02 0.00 0.16 0.04 0.04 $22.65 $37.75 $56.63 14.97 24.95 37.42
LRC $0.07 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.04 $1.04 $1.73 $2.60 15.71 26.19 39.29
THETA $0.49 0.01 0.00 0.18 0.04 0.04 $7.04 $11.73 $17.60 14.26 23.77 35.66
OP $0.40 0.03 0.00 0.21 0.05 0.05 $4.42 $7.37 $11.05 10.97 18.29 27.43
ARB11841 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.05 0.05 $0.01 $0.02 $0.04 12.65 21.08 31.62
STX4847 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.05 0.05 $0.04 $0.06 $0.09 12.51 20.85 31.28
NEO $4.98 0.04 0.00 0.20 0.05 0.05 $51.69 $86.16 $129.23 10.38 17.30 25.94
MANA $0.23 0.01 0.00 0.22 0.05 0.05 $2.68 $4.46 $6.69 11.67 19.45 29.18
LPT $4.74 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.05 0.05 $58.11 $96.85 $145.28 12.27 20.45 30.68
WLD $0.81 0.05 0.00 0.20 0.06 0.06 $7.67 $12.79 $19.18 9.49 15.82 23.73
ZRX $0.19 0.03 0.00 0.24 0.06 0.06 $1.82 $3.04 $4.55 9.75 16.24 24.37
FLR $0.02 0.05 0.00 0.20 0.06 0.06 $0.16 $0.27 $0.41 10.03 16.72 25.08
XTZ $0.58 0.05 0.00 0.27 0.07 0.07 $4.62 $7.70 $11.55 7.98 13.30 19.95
GRT6719 $0.45 0.10 0.00 0.13 0.07 0.07 $3.83 $6.39 $9.58 8.43 14.06 21.09
BSV $21.96 0.12 0.00 0.18 0.08 0.08 $151.41 $252.35 $378.52 6.90 11.49 17.24
SAND $0.20 0.13 0.00 0.16 0.08 0.08 $1.40 $2.34 $3.50 6.88 11.47 17.21
SEI $0.19 0.11 0.00 0.18 0.08 0.08 $1.42 $2.36 $3.54 7.34 12.23 18.34
ATOM $3.02 0.07 0.00 0.27 0.08 0.08 $21.21 $35.35 $53.02 7.03 11.72 17.58
GALA $0.01 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.08 0.08 $0.07 $0.11 $0.17 6.80 11.33 17.00
RUNE $0.85 0.14 0.00 0.21 0.09 0.09 $5.15 $8.58 $12.87 6.07 10.12 15.18
APE18876 $0.40 0.14 0.00 0.16 0.09 0.09 $2.69 $4.48 $6.71 6.65 11.08 16.63
CKB $0.00 0.17 0.00 0.15 0.09 0.09 $0.02 $0.03 $0.05 6.07 10.11 15.17
ADA $0.62 0.00 0.15 0.21 0.10 0.10 $3.41 $5.69 $8.54 5.54 9.23 13.85
QNT $80.13 0.08 0.07 0.20 0.10 0.10 $468.03 $780.05 $1,170.08 5.84 9.73 14.60
LTC $95.62 0.08 0.06 0.29 0.11 0.11 $483.07 $805.12 $1,207.69 5.05 8.42 12.63
GNO $130.10 0.09 0.00 0.36 0.11 0.11 $697.45 $1,162.42 $1,743.63 5.36 8.94 13.40
NEXO $1.11 0.02 0.18 0.25 0.13 0.13 $4.86 $8.10 $12.14 4.36 7.27 10.90
CRO $0.15 0.04 0.18 0.20 0.13 0.13 $0.66 $1.10 $1.65 4.44 7.40 11.10
TON11419 $1.32 0.11 0.00 0.42 0.13 0.13 $5.88 $9.80 $14.70 4.46 7.43 11.15
OM $0.11 0.18 0.00 0.35 0.14 0.14 $0.43 $0.72 $1.08 4.06 6.77 10.15
KAS $0.05 0.24 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 $0.20 $0.33 $0.49 3.73 6.22 9.33
ENS $14.81 0.23 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 $57.45 $95.74 $143.62 3.88 6.47 9.70
DYDX $0.31 0.16 0.00 0.45 0.15 0.15 $1.16 $1.93 $2.89 3.75 6.25 9.37
W $0.07 0.03 0.00 0.74 0.16 0.16 $0.24 $0.40 $0.60 3.67 6.12 9.18
IOTA $0.14 0.29 0.00 0.13 0.17 0.17 $0.46 $0.76 $1.15 3.29 5.48 8.22
TRB $25.34 0.28 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.17 $83.64 $139.40 $209.10 3.30 5.50 8.25
XDC $0.06 0.00 0.38 0.11 0.18 0.18 $0.19 $0.31 $0.47 3.17 5.28 7.92
KLAY $0.10 0.31 0.00 0.17 0.19 0.19 $0.31 $0.52 $0.79 3.03 5.05 7.58
ONDO $0.69 0.31 0.00 0.16 0.19 0.19 $2.12 $3.54 $5.31 3.07 5.11 7.66
RON14101 $0.33 0.29 0.00 0.27 0.20 0.20 $0.94 $1.56 $2.34 2.84 4.73 7.09
AIOZ $0.18 0.34 0.00 0.20 0.21 0.21 $0.49 $0.82 $1.23 2.73 4.55 6.82
DOGE $0.19 0.00 0.46 0.12 0.21 0.21 $0.49 $0.82 $1.24 2.65 4.42 6.63
MKR $1,853.62 0.11 0.30 0.21 0.21 0.21 $5,069.94 $8,449.90 $12,674.84 2.74 4.56 6.84
HBAR $0.20 0.03 0.42 0.19 0.22 0.22 $0.51 $0.85 $1.28 2.58 4.31 6.46
AR $3.62 0.37 0.00 0.20 0.23 0.23 $9.05 $15.08 $22.62 2.50 4.17 6.25
FTM $0.70 0.03 0.39 0.28 0.23 0.23 $1.74 $2.90 $4.36 2.50 4.16 6.25
APT21794 $3.27 0.37 0.00 0.24 0.23 0.23 $8.04 $13.40 $20.11 2.46 4.10 6.14
LINK $17.33 0.07 0.36 0.30 0.24 0.24 $41.68 $69.46 $104.20 2.41 4.01 6.01
SUI20947 $2.38 0.28 0.25 0.13 0.24 0.24 $5.66 $9.43 $14.15 2.37 3.96 5.94
JASMY $0.01 0.29 0.00 0.47 0.24 0.24 $0.02 $0.04 $0.06 2.39 3.98 5.97
CFX $0.10 0.40 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 $0.24 $0.39 $0.59 2.30 3.83 5.74
XLM $0.31 0.00 0.53 0.17 0.25 0.25 $0.70 $1.16 $1.75 2.25 3.75 5.63
GT $13.02 0.00 0.57 0.08 0.25 0.25 $29.59 $49.32 $73.99 2.27 3.79 5.68
AVAX $18.42 0.44 0.00 0.22 0.26 0.26 $39.92 $66.54 $99.81 2.17 3.61 5.42
AERO29270 $1.08 0.28 0.17 0.43 0.28 0.28 $2.20 $3.67 $5.50 2.03 3.39 5.09
EGLD $9.23 0.50 0.00 0.20 0.29 0.29 $18.15 $30.25 $45.37 1.97 3.28 4.92
ICP $2.92 0.42 0.00 0.39 0.29 0.29 $5.81 $9.68 $14.52 1.99 3.31 4.96
BCH $554.56 0.10 0.50 0.24 0.29 0.29 $1,085.13 $1,808.55 $2,712.83 1.96 3.26 4.89
EGLD $9.23 0.50 0.00 0.20 0.29 0.29 $18.15 $30.25 $45.37 1.97 3.28 4.92
FORTH $2.29 0.40 0.00 0.44 0.29 0.29 $4.54 $7.56 $11.34 1.98 3.30 4.95
OSMO $0.11 0.45 0.00 0.45 0.31 0.31 $0.21 $0.35 $0.52 1.83 3.04 4.57
DIA $0.53 0.50 0.00 0.33 0.32 0.32 $0.94 $1.57 $2.36 1.79 2.98 4.47
IMX10603 $0.49 0.49 0.00 0.36 0.32 0.32 $0.89 $1.48 $2.22 1.81 3.01 4.52
PENDLE $3.08 0.38 0.42 0.18 0.35 0.35 $5.02 $8.37 $12.56 1.63 2.72 4.07
MNT27075 $1.49 0.08 0.63 0.32 0.35 0.35 $2.41 $4.02 $6.03 1.62 2.70 4.05
AXS $1.45 0.60 0.00 0.25 0.35 0.35 $2.36 $3.93 $5.89 1.62 2.70 4.06
DOT $2.90 0.61 0.00 0.23 0.35 0.35 $4.73 $7.89 $11.83 1.63 2.72 4.07
HNT $2.58 0.61 0.00 0.29 0.36 0.36 $4.04 $6.74 $10.11 1.56 2.61 3.91
INJ $7.76 0.68 0.00 0.13 0.36 0.36 $12.13 $20.22 $30.33 1.56 2.61 3.91
XRP $2.52 0.00 0.83 0.09 0.36 0.36 $3.96 $6.61 $9.91 1.58 2.63 3.94
ETH $3,857.10 0.09 0.61 0.38 0.36 0.36 $6,112.47 $10,187.45 $15,281.17 1.58 2.64 3.96
SOL $188.98 0.18 0.60 0.28 0.37 0.37 $289.67 $482.79 $724.18 1.53 2.55 3.83
TRX $0.30 0.05 0.81 0.09 0.37 0.37 $0.45 $0.75 $1.13 1.53 2.55 3.82
FLOW $0.26 0.51 0.00 0.55 0.37 0.37 $0.41 $0.69 $1.03 1.55 2.59 3.89
NEAR $2.15 0.60 0.00 0.33 0.37 0.37 $3.33 $5.55 $8.32 1.55 2.59 3.88
AAVE $219.72 0.54 0.28 0.20 0.39 0.39 $319.69 $532.81 $799.22 1.45 2.42 3.64
BTC $110,395.28 0.07 0.79 0.29 0.41 0.41 $153,102.30 $255,170.50 $382,755.75 1.39 2.31 3.47
BNB $1,085.27 0.08 0.77 0.39 0.42 0.42 $1,464.27 $2,440.45 $3,660.67 1.35 2.25 3.37
TAO22974 $471.58 0.43 0.43 0.46 0.44 0.44 $614.13 $1,023.55 $1,535.32 1.30 2.17 3.26
AKT $0.73 0.95 0.00 0.19 0.51 0.51 $0.82 $1.36 $2.04 1.12 1.86 2.79

Methodology (TL;DR)

We estimate upside “peaks” for three scenarios—Base, Bull, and Moon Boy—by dividing today’s price by a composite risk score. Lower risk → higher peak. The composite risk blends three independent risk measures: a regression deviation, a TWAP divergence, and a 20-week SMA distance.

Risk metrics

Weighting logic

We form a composite risk as a weighted sum of the three metrics: 

Conservative mix (Bull):
  Reg 0.50   TWAP 0.30   SMA 0.20

Adjusted mix (used for Base & Moon Boy when Regression Risk < 0.20):
  Increase TWAP weight by +40% and decrease Regression by −20%, then re-normalize to 1.0
  (SMA unchanged)

Scenario definitions

For each scenario we also compute a Reward multiple = Peak / Price.

Disclaimer

This is a research tool, not financial advice.