Cryptocurrency Risk–Reward Analysis (Base / Bull / Moon Boy)

Cryptocurrency	Latest Price	Regression Risk	TWAP Risk	SMA Risk	Weighted Risk (Bull)	Weighted Risk (Adj)	Base Peak	Bull Peak	Moon Boy Peak	Base Reward	Bull Reward	Moon Reward
UNI7083	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	$0.04	$0.07	$0.10	242.51	404.18	606.28
COMP5692	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	119.03	198.39	297.59
EOS	$0.29	0.01	0.00	0.10	0.02	0.02	$7.77	$12.95	$19.42	26.95	44.92	67.39
VET	$0.02	0.01	0.00	0.14	0.03	0.03	$0.31	$0.51	$0.77	18.13	30.22	45.33
ETC	$16.26	0.03	0.00	0.09	0.03	0.03	$330.97	$551.62	$827.42	20.36	33.93	50.90
STRK	$0.02	0.01	0.00	0.12	0.03	0.03	$0.40	$0.67	$1.00	22.55	37.58	56.37
FET	$0.26	0.03	0.00	0.13	0.04	0.04	$4.00	$6.66	$9.99	15.21	25.36	38.03
MATIC	$0.22	0.02	0.00	0.15	0.04	0.04	$3.30	$5.50	$8.26	15.26	25.44	38.15
LRC	$0.07	0.02	0.00	0.15	0.04	0.04	$1.04	$1.74	$2.61	15.44	25.74	38.61
THETA	$0.53	0.01	0.00	0.19	0.04	0.04	$7.23	$12.06	$18.09	13.53	22.55	33.83
FIL	$1.62	0.02	0.00	0.16	0.04	0.04	$23.04	$38.41	$57.61	14.24	23.74	35.61
MANA	$0.24	0.01	0.00	0.23	0.05	0.05	$2.70	$4.49	$6.74	11.31	18.84	28.26
OP	$0.45	0.03	0.00	0.21	0.05	0.05	$4.69	$7.82	$11.73	10.46	17.43	26.15
STX4847	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.05	0.05	$0.04	$0.06	$0.09	12.51	20.85	31.28
ARB11841	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.05	0.05	$0.01	$0.02	$0.04	12.64	21.07	31.61
ALGO	$0.19	0.01	0.00	0.22	0.05	0.05	$2.34	$3.91	$5.86	12.60	21.00	31.50
LPT	$5.02	0.05	0.00	0.16	0.05	0.05	$58.56	$97.60	$146.40	11.66	19.43	29.15
NEO	$5.21	0.05	0.00	0.20	0.06	0.06	$51.27	$85.45	$128.17	9.84	16.41	24.61
ENA	$0.46	0.03	0.00	0.23	0.06	0.06	$4.54	$7.57	$11.35	9.96	16.61	24.91
WLD	$0.89	0.06	0.00	0.21	0.06	0.06	$8.01	$13.34	$20.02	9.02	15.04	22.55
ZRX	$0.19	0.03	0.00	0.24	0.06	0.06	$1.82	$3.04	$4.56	9.48	15.79	23.69
FLR	$0.02	0.05	0.00	0.21	0.06	0.06	$0.16	$0.26	$0.39	9.38	15.63	23.45
GRT6719	$0.45	0.10	0.00	0.13	0.07	0.07	$3.83	$6.39	$9.58	8.43	14.06	21.09
XTZ	$0.60	0.05	0.00	0.28	0.08	0.08	$4.52	$7.53	$11.29	7.56	12.60	18.90
BSV	$22.49	0.13	0.00	0.18	0.08	0.08	$151.36	$252.27	$378.40	6.73	11.22	16.83
ATOM	$3.12	0.08	0.00	0.28	0.08	0.08	$21.09	$35.15	$52.73	6.75	11.25	16.88
SEI	$0.20	0.11	0.00	0.19	0.08	0.08	$1.43	$2.38	$3.57	7.21	12.02	18.03
SAND	$0.22	0.14	0.00	0.16	0.09	0.09	$1.41	$2.36	$3.54	6.54	10.90	16.36
APE18876	$0.43	0.15	0.00	0.16	0.09	0.09	$2.73	$4.55	$6.83	6.38	10.63	15.94
GALA	$0.01	0.16	0.00	0.14	0.09	0.09	$0.07	$0.12	$0.18	6.42	10.71	16.06
RUNE	$0.88	0.14	0.00	0.21	0.10	0.10	$5.22	$8.71	$13.06	5.94	9.90	14.84
QNT	$80.08	0.08	0.06	0.19	0.10	0.10	$470.17	$783.62	$1,175.43	5.87	9.79	14.68
CKB	$0.00	0.17	0.00	0.15	0.10	0.10	$0.02	$0.03	$0.05	5.84	9.74	14.61
GNO	$133.69	0.10	0.00	0.37	0.11	0.11	$689.74	$1,149.57	$1,724.35	5.16	8.60	12.90
CRO	$0.15	0.04	0.18	0.20	0.13	0.13	$0.66	$1.10	$1.65	4.43	7.38	11.07
ADA	$0.65	0.01	0.20	0.23	0.13	0.13	$2.91	$4.85	$7.27	4.47	7.45	11.18
TON11419	$1.32	0.11	0.00	0.42	0.13	0.13	$5.88	$9.80	$14.70	4.46	7.43	11.15
NEXO	$1.14	0.02	0.20	0.26	0.14	0.14	$4.64	$7.74	$11.61	4.09	6.81	10.22
LTC	$100.23	0.09	0.12	0.31	0.14	0.14	$396.46	$660.77	$991.16	3.96	6.59	9.89
OM	$0.11	0.18	0.00	0.35	0.14	0.14	$0.45	$0.75	$1.13	4.03	6.72	10.07
W	$0.07	0.03	0.00	0.76	0.16	0.16	$0.25	$0.42	$0.63	3.56	5.93	8.89
DYDX	$0.33	0.19	0.00	0.46	0.16	0.16	$1.17	$1.95	$2.93	3.50	5.83	8.75
ENS	$15.81	0.26	0.00	0.19	0.17	0.17	$53.67	$89.45	$134.18	3.39	5.66	8.48
KAS	$0.06	0.28	0.00	0.21	0.18	0.18	$0.19	$0.31	$0.47	3.12	5.21	7.81
TRB	$25.89	0.28	0.00	0.17	0.18	0.18	$84.22	$140.36	$210.54	3.25	5.42	8.13
MKR	$1,788.06	0.10	0.27	0.20	0.19	0.19	$5,348.09	$8,913.48	$13,370.22	2.99	4.98	7.48
IOTA	$0.15	0.32	0.00	0.15	0.19	0.19	$0.45	$0.74	$1.12	3.04	5.07	7.60
XDC	$0.06	0.00	0.40	0.12	0.19	0.19	$0.18	$0.31	$0.46	3.00	5.00	7.50
KLAY	$0.11	0.33	0.00	0.18	0.20	0.20	$0.31	$0.52	$0.78	2.84	4.74	7.11
AERO29270	$0.97	0.24	0.05	0.38	0.21	0.21	$2.61	$4.35	$6.53	2.68	4.47	6.71
ONDO	$0.74	0.35	0.00	0.18	0.21	0.21	$2.01	$3.35	$5.03	2.72	4.53	6.80
RON14101	$0.35	0.31	0.00	0.28	0.21	0.21	$0.93	$1.55	$2.33	2.67	4.45	6.68
AIOZ	$0.19	0.35	0.00	0.20	0.22	0.22	$0.50	$0.83	$1.25	2.64	4.40	6.60
DOGE	$0.20	0.00	0.49	0.13	0.23	0.23	$0.49	$0.81	$1.22	2.50	4.16	6.24
HBAR	$0.20	0.03	0.43	0.19	0.23	0.23	$0.50	$0.84	$1.26	2.52	4.20	6.31
FTM	$0.70	0.03	0.39	0.28	0.23	0.23	$1.74	$2.90	$4.36	2.50	4.16	6.25
JASMY	$0.01	0.29	0.00	0.47	0.24	0.24	$0.02	$0.04	$0.06	2.37	3.95	5.93
APT21794	$3.42	0.39	0.00	0.26	0.25	0.25	$7.91	$13.19	$19.78	2.31	3.86	5.78
AR	$3.96	0.41	0.00	0.21	0.25	0.25	$9.14	$15.23	$22.85	2.31	3.85	5.78
LINK	$18.17	0.08	0.40	0.32	0.26	0.26	$39.90	$66.50	$99.74	2.20	3.66	5.49
XLM	$0.32	0.00	0.56	0.19	0.27	0.27	$0.69	$1.15	$1.73	2.14	3.57	5.35
CFX	$0.11	0.43	0.00	0.26	0.27	0.27	$0.24	$0.39	$0.59	2.14	3.57	5.36
AVAX	$19.76	0.47	0.00	0.23	0.28	0.28	$39.98	$66.63	$99.94	2.02	3.37	5.06
SUI20947	$2.54	0.30	0.31	0.16	0.28	0.28	$5.22	$8.70	$13.06	2.06	3.43	5.14
BCH	$555.57	0.10	0.50	0.25	0.29	0.29	$1,082.11	$1,803.52	$2,705.29	1.95	3.25	4.87
GT	$14.69	0.00	0.63	0.14	0.29	0.29	$29.14	$48.56	$72.84	1.98	3.31	4.96
ICP	$3.09	0.44	0.00	0.40	0.30	0.30	$5.86	$9.77	$14.66	1.90	3.17	4.75
EGLD	$9.73	0.53	0.00	0.20	0.30	0.30	$18.29	$30.48	$45.72	1.88	3.13	4.70
EGLD	$9.73	0.53	0.00	0.20	0.30	0.30	$18.29	$30.48	$45.72	1.88	3.13	4.70
FORTH	$2.39	0.43	0.00	0.46	0.30	0.30	$4.49	$7.48	$11.22	1.88	3.13	4.69
OSMO	$0.12	0.48	0.00	0.45	0.33	0.33	$0.21	$0.35	$0.52	1.72	2.87	4.30
HNT	$2.43	0.57	0.00	0.28	0.34	0.34	$4.07	$6.79	$10.19	1.68	2.79	4.19
DIA	$0.57	0.56	0.00	0.35	0.35	0.35	$0.92	$1.54	$2.31	1.63	2.71	4.07
IMX10603	$0.53	0.54	0.00	0.38	0.35	0.35	$0.88	$1.46	$2.19	1.65	2.74	4.12
AXS	$1.57	0.65	0.00	0.25	0.37	0.37	$2.39	$3.98	$5.97	1.52	2.53	3.80
XRP	$2.64	0.01	0.85	0.12	0.38	0.38	$4.00	$6.66	$9.99	1.51	2.52	3.78
TAO22974	$426.18	0.40	0.34	0.40	0.38	0.38	$636.56	$1,060.93	$1,591.39	1.49	2.49	3.73
TRX	$0.30	0.05	0.82	0.09	0.38	0.38	$0.45	$0.75	$1.13	1.52	2.53	3.80
DOT	$3.12	0.66	0.00	0.24	0.38	0.38	$4.69	$7.82	$11.72	1.51	2.51	3.76
FLOW	$0.27	0.53	0.00	0.56	0.38	0.38	$0.42	$0.69	$1.04	1.52	2.53	3.80
ETH	$3,999.92	0.10	0.63	0.41	0.38	0.38	$6,044.37	$10,073.95	$15,110.92	1.51	2.52	3.78
PENDLE	$3.26	0.40	0.46	0.20	0.38	0.38	$4.92	$8.21	$12.31	1.51	2.52	3.77
SOL	$199.73	0.19	0.63	0.31	0.39	0.39	$289.21	$482.02	$723.03	1.45	2.41	3.62
NEAR	$2.32	0.65	0.00	0.34	0.40	0.40	$3.34	$5.56	$8.34	1.44	2.40	3.60
MNT27075	$1.60	0.13	0.69	0.37	0.41	0.41	$2.24	$3.74	$5.61	1.40	2.34	3.51
INJ	$8.60	0.75	0.00	0.15	0.41	0.41	$12.10	$20.17	$30.26	1.41	2.35	3.52
AAVE	$230.81	0.56	0.33	0.21	0.42	0.42	$312.63	$521.05	$781.57	1.35	2.26	3.39
BTC	$113,079.83	0.08	0.81	0.32	0.42	0.42	$151,775.37	$252,958.95	$379,438.42	1.34	2.24	3.36
BNB	$1,114.15	0.08	0.78	0.43	0.43	0.43	$1,461.15	$2,435.25	$3,652.87	1.31	2.19	3.28
AKT	$0.79	1.00	0.00	0.20	0.54	0.54	$0.84	$1.39	$2.09	1.06	1.76	2.64

Cryptocurrency

Latest Price

Regression Risk

TWAP Risk

SMA Risk

Weighted Risk (Bull)

Weighted Risk (Adj)

Base Peak

Bull Peak

Moon Boy Peak

Base Reward

Bull Reward

Moon Reward

UNI7083

$0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

$0.04

$0.07

$0.10

242.51

404.18

606.28

COMP5692

$0.00

0.00

0.02

0.00

$0.00

119.03

198.39

297.59

EOS

$0.29

0.01

0.00

0.10

0.02

$7.77

$12.95

$19.42

26.95

44.92

67.39

VET

$0.02

0.01

0.00

0.14

0.03

$0.31

$0.51

$0.77

18.13

30.22

45.33

ETC

$16.26

0.03

0.00

0.09

0.03

$330.97

$551.62

$827.42

20.36

33.93

50.90

STRK

$0.02

0.01

0.00

0.12

0.03

$0.40

$0.67

$1.00

22.55

37.58

56.37

FET

$0.26

0.03

0.00

0.13

0.04

$4.00

$6.66

$9.99

15.21

25.36

38.03

MATIC

$0.22

0.02

0.00

0.15

0.04

$3.30

$5.50

$8.26

15.26

25.44

38.15

LRC

$0.07

0.02

0.00

0.15

0.04

$1.04

$1.74

$2.61

15.44

25.74

38.61

THETA

$0.53

0.01

0.00

0.19

0.04

$7.23

$12.06

$18.09

13.53

22.55

33.83

FIL

$1.62

0.02

0.00

0.16

0.04

$23.04

$38.41

$57.61

14.24

23.74

35.61

MANA

$0.24

0.01

0.00

0.23

0.05

$2.70

$4.49

$6.74

11.31

18.84

28.26

$0.45

0.03

0.00

0.21

0.05

$4.69

$7.82

$11.73

10.46

17.43

26.15

STX4847

$0.00

0.00

0.23

0.05

$0.04

$0.06

$0.09

12.51

20.85

31.28

ARB11841

$0.00

0.00

0.22

0.05

$0.01

$0.02

$0.04

12.64

21.07

31.61

ALGO

$0.19

0.01

0.00

0.22

0.05

$2.34

$3.91

$5.86

12.60

21.00

31.50

LPT

$5.02

0.05

0.00

0.16

0.05

$58.56

$97.60

$146.40

11.66

19.43

29.15

NEO

$5.21

0.05

0.00

0.20

0.06

$51.27

$85.45

$128.17

9.84

16.41

24.61

ENA

$0.46

0.03

0.00

0.23

0.06

$4.54

$7.57

$11.35

9.96

16.61

24.91

WLD

$0.89

0.06

0.00

0.21

0.06

$8.01

$13.34

$20.02

9.02

15.04

22.55

ZRX

$0.19

0.03

0.00

0.24

0.06

$1.82

$3.04

$4.56

9.48

15.79

23.69

FLR

$0.02

0.05

0.00

0.21

0.06

$0.16

$0.26

$0.39

9.38

15.63

23.45

GRT6719

$0.45

0.10

0.00

0.13

0.07

$3.83

$6.39

$9.58

8.43

14.06

21.09

XTZ

$0.60

0.05

0.00

0.28

0.08

$4.52

$7.53

$11.29

7.56

12.60

18.90

BSV

$22.49

0.13

0.00

0.18

0.08

$151.36

$252.27

$378.40

6.73

11.22

16.83

ATOM

$3.12

0.08

0.00

0.28

0.08

$21.09

$35.15

$52.73

6.75

11.25

16.88

SEI

$0.20

0.11

0.00

0.19

0.08

$1.43

$2.38

$3.57

7.21

12.02

18.03

SAND

$0.22

0.14

0.00

0.16

0.09

$1.41

$2.36

$3.54

6.54

10.90

16.36

APE18876

$0.43

0.15

0.00

0.16

0.09

$2.73

$4.55

$6.83

6.38

10.63

15.94

GALA

$0.01

0.16

0.00

0.14

0.09

$0.07

$0.12

$0.18

6.42

10.71

16.06

RUNE

$0.88

0.14

0.00

0.21

0.10

$5.22

$8.71

$13.06

5.94

9.90

14.84

QNT

$80.08

0.08

0.06

0.19

0.10

$470.17

$783.62

$1,175.43

5.87

9.79

14.68

CKB

$0.00

0.17

0.00

0.15

0.10

$0.02

$0.03

$0.05

5.84

9.74

14.61

GNO

$133.69

0.10

0.00

0.37

0.11

$689.74

$1,149.57

$1,724.35

5.16

8.60

12.90

CRO

$0.15

0.04

0.18

0.20

0.13

$0.66

$1.10

$1.65

4.43

7.38

11.07

ADA

$0.65

0.01

0.20

0.23

0.13

$2.91

$4.85

$7.27

4.47

7.45

11.18

TON11419

$1.32

0.11

0.00

0.42

0.13

$5.88

$9.80

$14.70

4.46

7.43

11.15

NEXO

$1.14

0.02

0.20

0.26

0.14

$4.64

$7.74

$11.61

4.09

6.81

10.22

LTC

$100.23

0.09

0.12

0.31

0.14

$396.46

$660.77

$991.16

3.96

6.59

9.89

$0.11

0.18

0.00

0.35

0.14

$0.45

$0.75

$1.13

4.03

6.72

10.07

$0.07

0.03

0.00

0.76

0.16

$0.25

$0.42

$0.63

3.56

5.93

8.89

DYDX

$0.33

0.19

0.00

0.46

0.16

$1.17

$1.95

$2.93

3.50

5.83

8.75

ENS

$15.81

0.26

0.00

0.19

0.17

$53.67

$89.45

$134.18

3.39

5.66

8.48

KAS

$0.06

0.28

0.00

0.21

0.18

$0.19

$0.31

$0.47

3.12

5.21

7.81

TRB

$25.89

0.28

0.00

0.17

0.18

$84.22

$140.36

$210.54

3.25

5.42

8.13

MKR

$1,788.06

0.10

0.27

0.20

0.19

$5,348.09

$8,913.48

$13,370.22

2.99

4.98

7.48

IOTA

$0.15

0.32

0.00

0.15

0.19

$0.45

$0.74

$1.12

3.04

5.07

7.60

XDC

$0.06

0.00

0.40

0.12

0.19

$0.18

$0.31

$0.46

3.00

5.00

7.50

KLAY

$0.11

0.33

0.00

0.18

0.20

$0.31

$0.52

$0.78

2.84

4.74

7.11

AERO29270

$0.97

0.24

0.05

0.38

0.21

$2.61

$4.35

$6.53

2.68

4.47

6.71

ONDO

$0.74

0.35

0.00

0.18

0.21

$2.01

$3.35

$5.03

2.72

4.53

6.80

RON14101

$0.35

0.31

0.00

0.28

0.21

$0.93

$1.55

$2.33

2.67

4.45

6.68

AIOZ

$0.19

0.35

0.00

0.20

0.22

$0.50

$0.83

$1.25

2.64

4.40

6.60

DOGE

$0.20

0.00

0.49

0.13

0.23

$0.49

$0.81

$1.22

2.50

4.16

6.24

HBAR

$0.20

0.03

0.43

0.19

0.23

$0.50

$0.84

$1.26

2.52

4.20

6.31

FTM

$0.70

0.03

0.39

0.28

0.23

$1.74

$2.90

$4.36

2.50

4.16

6.25

JASMY

$0.01

0.29

0.00

0.47

0.24

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

2.37

3.95

5.93

APT21794

$3.42

0.39

0.00

0.26

0.25

$7.91

$13.19

$19.78

2.31

3.86

5.78

$3.96

0.41

0.00

0.21

0.25

$9.14

$15.23

$22.85

2.31

3.85

5.78

LINK

$18.17

0.08

0.40

0.32

0.26

$39.90

$66.50

$99.74

2.20

3.66

5.49

XLM

$0.32

0.00

0.56

0.19

0.27

$0.69

$1.15

$1.73

2.14

3.57

5.35

CFX

$0.11

0.43

0.00

0.26

0.27

$0.24

$0.39

$0.59

2.14

3.57

5.36

AVAX

$19.76

0.47

0.00

0.23

0.28

$39.98

$66.63

$99.94

2.02

3.37

5.06

SUI20947

$2.54

0.30

0.31

0.16

0.28

$5.22

$8.70

$13.06

2.06

3.43

5.14

BCH

$555.57

0.10

0.50

0.25

0.29

$1,082.11

$1,803.52

$2,705.29

1.95

3.25

4.87

$14.69

0.00

0.63

0.14

0.29

$29.14

$48.56

$72.84

1.98

3.31

4.96

ICP

$3.09

0.44

0.00

0.40

0.30

$5.86

$9.77

$14.66

1.90

3.17

4.75

EGLD

$9.73

0.53

0.00

0.20

0.30

$18.29

$30.48

$45.72

1.88

3.13

4.70

EGLD

$9.73

0.53

0.00

0.20

0.30

$18.29

$30.48

$45.72

1.88

3.13

4.70

FORTH

$2.39

0.43

0.00

0.46

0.30

$4.49

$7.48

$11.22

1.88

3.13

4.69

OSMO

$0.12

0.48

0.00

0.45

0.33

$0.21

$0.35

$0.52

1.72

2.87

4.30

HNT

$2.43

0.57

0.00

0.28

0.34

$4.07

$6.79

$10.19

1.68

2.79

4.19

DIA

$0.57

0.56

0.00

0.35

$0.92

$1.54

$2.31

1.63

2.71

4.07

IMX10603

$0.53

0.54

0.00

0.38

0.35

$0.88

$1.46

$2.19

1.65

2.74

4.12

AXS

$1.57

0.65

0.00

0.25

0.37

$2.39

$3.98

$5.97

1.52

2.53

3.80

XRP

$2.64

0.01

0.85

0.12

0.38

$4.00

$6.66

$9.99

1.51

2.52

3.78

TAO22974

$426.18

0.40

0.34

0.40

0.38

$636.56

$1,060.93

$1,591.39

1.49

2.49

3.73

TRX

$0.30

0.05

0.82

0.09

0.38

$0.45

$0.75

$1.13

1.52

2.53

3.80

DOT

$3.12

0.66

0.00

0.24

0.38

$4.69

$7.82

$11.72

1.51

2.51

3.76

FLOW

$0.27

0.53

0.00

0.56

0.38

$0.42

$0.69

$1.04

1.52

2.53

3.80

ETH

$3,999.92

0.10

0.63

0.41

0.38

$6,044.37

$10,073.95

$15,110.92

1.51

2.52

3.78

PENDLE

$3.26

0.40

0.46

0.20

0.38

$4.92

$8.21

$12.31

1.51

2.52

3.77

SOL

$199.73

0.19

0.63

0.31

0.39

$289.21

$482.02

$723.03

1.45

2.41

3.62

NEAR

$2.32

0.65

0.00

0.34

0.40

$3.34

$5.56

$8.34

1.44

2.40

3.60

MNT27075

$1.60

0.13

0.69

0.37

0.41

$2.24

$3.74

$5.61

1.40

2.34

3.51

INJ

$8.60

0.75

0.00

0.15

0.41

$12.10

$20.17

$30.26

1.41

2.35

3.52

AAVE

$230.81

0.56

0.33

0.21

0.42

$312.63

$521.05

$781.57

1.35

2.26

3.39

BTC

$113,079.83

0.08

0.81

0.32

0.42

$151,775.37

$252,958.95

$379,438.42

1.34

2.24

3.36

BNB

$1,114.15

0.08

0.78

0.43

$1,461.15

$2,435.25

$3,652.87

1.31

2.19

3.28

AKT

$0.79

1.00

0.00

0.20

0.54

$0.84

$1.39

$2.09

1.06

1.76

2.64

Methodology (TL;DR)

We estimate upside “peaks” for three scenarios—Base, Bull, and Moon Boy—by dividing today’s price by a composite risk score. Lower risk → higher peak. The composite risk blends three independent risk measures: a regression deviation, a TWAP divergence, and a 20-week SMA distance.

Risk metrics

Regression Risk: Fit a 4th-order polynomial trend to log(price) over the full history, then compute the proportional deviation (Close − Trend) / Trend. We scale to [0,1], and apply a mild time ramp to tilt weight toward recent action.
TWAP Risk: TWAP is the expanding mean of price. We take the positive divergence (Close − TWAP) / Close, clip at 0, and rescale to [0,1]. It’s a simple read on how extended price is vs. its path-of-travel.
SMA Risk: Use a 20-week (~140 trading days) SMA. Combine linear distance (Close − SMA) and proportional distance (Close − SMA)/SMA (each normalized), then re-normalize the 50/50 blend.

Weighting logic

We form a composite risk as a weighted sum of the three metrics:

Conservative mix (Bull):
  Reg 0.50   TWAP 0.30   SMA 0.20

Adjusted mix (used for Base & Moon Boy when Regression Risk < 0.20):
  Increase TWAP weight by +40% and decrease Regression by −20%, then re-normalize to 1.0
  (SMA unchanged)

Scenario definitions

Base Peak: 0.6 × 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_adjusted
Bull Peak: 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_conservative (original bull formula)
Moon Boy Peak: 1.5 × 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_adjusted

For each scenario we also compute a Reward multiple = Peak / Price.

Disclaimer

This is a research tool, not financial advice.