Cryptocurrency Risk–Reward Analysis (Base / Bull / Moon Boy)

Cryptocurrency	Latest Price	Regression Risk	TWAP Risk	SMA Risk	Weighted Risk (Bull)	Weighted Risk (Adj)	Base Peak	Bull Peak	Moon Boy Peak	Base Reward	Bull Reward	Moon Reward
UNI7083	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	$0.04	$0.06	$0.10	242.51	392.15	606.28
COMP5692	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	119.03	193.48	297.59
STRK	$0.02	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.02	0.02	$0.51	$0.83	$1.28	28.33	46.14	70.82
MATIC	$0.22	0.02	0.00	0.15	0.04	0.04	$3.30	$5.11	$8.26	15.26	23.60	38.15
ETC	$19.56	0.04	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.04	$294.05	$433.68	$735.12	15.04	22.18	37.59
EOS	$0.41	0.03	0.00	0.13	0.04	0.03	$6.65	$10.15	$16.63	16.36	24.95	40.89
ARB11841	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.05	0.05	$0.01	$0.02	$0.04	12.61	20.39	31.51
VET	$0.02	0.02	0.00	0.17	0.05	0.04	$0.31	$0.48	$0.78	13.56	21.08	33.90
LRC	$0.09	0.03	0.00	0.17	0.05	0.05	$1.06	$1.63	$2.66	12.46	19.06	31.16
THETA	$0.75	0.02	0.00	0.22	0.05	0.05	$8.33	$13.07	$20.82	11.11	17.44	27.77
STX4847	$0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.05	0.05	$0.04	$0.06	$0.09	12.51	20.30	31.28
ALGO	$0.22	0.01	0.00	0.25	0.06	0.05	$2.40	$3.85	$6.00	10.71	17.18	26.79
FIL	$2.35	0.03	0.00	0.19	0.06	0.05	$26.22	$40.23	$65.56	11.16	17.12	27.89
OP	$0.73	0.05	0.00	0.26	0.07	0.07	$6.08	$9.32	$15.21	8.35	12.79	20.87
LPT	$6.45	0.06	0.00	0.18	0.07	0.06	$62.61	$92.89	$156.53	9.71	14.41	24.28
MANA	$0.33	0.04	0.00	0.27	0.07	0.07	$2.84	$4.40	$7.10	8.51	13.18	21.27
NEO	$6.15	0.06	0.00	0.23	0.07	0.07	$52.64	$79.47	$131.60	8.55	12.91	21.38
GRT6719	$0.45	0.10	0.00	0.13	0.08	0.07	$3.83	$5.43	$9.58	8.43	11.96	21.09
ZRX	$0.25	0.05	0.00	0.28	0.08	0.08	$1.87	$2.87	$4.68	7.54	11.55	18.84
WLD	$1.25	0.09	0.00	0.22	0.09	0.08	$8.93	$13.12	$22.31	7.17	10.54	17.92
XTZ	$0.69	0.08	0.00	0.32	0.10	0.09	$4.22	$6.37	$10.54	6.11	9.24	15.28
BSV	$27.68	0.16	0.00	0.20	0.12	0.10	$156.76	$222.28	$391.89	5.66	8.03	14.16
FET	$0.57	0.07	0.15	0.21	0.12	0.13	$2.50	$4.47	$6.26	4.40	7.86	11.00
SAND	$0.28	0.17	0.00	0.18	0.12	0.10	$1.56	$2.19	$3.90	5.62	7.88	14.04
RUNE	$1.16	0.16	0.00	0.23	0.13	0.11	$6.10	$8.71	$15.25	5.26	7.51	13.14
GALA	$0.02	0.20	0.00	0.16	0.13	0.11	$0.08	$0.12	$0.21	5.25	7.28	13.13
CKB	$0.00	0.20	0.00	0.18	0.13	0.11	$0.02	$0.03	$0.05	5.05	7.04	12.62
ATOM	$4.15	0.13	0.00	0.32	0.13	0.11	$20.58	$30.21	$51.44	4.96	7.28	12.40
ENA	$0.59	0.07	0.11	0.36	0.14	0.15	$2.32	$3.95	$5.79	3.92	6.68	9.80
TON11419	$1.32	0.11	0.00	0.42	0.14	0.13	$5.88	$8.83	$14.70	4.46	6.70	11.15
SEI	$0.30	0.19	0.00	0.29	0.15	0.13	$1.27	$1.82	$3.19	4.32	6.17	10.79
OM	$0.18	0.18	0.00	0.37	0.16	0.14	$0.70	$1.02	$1.76	4.01	5.85	10.03
APE18876	$0.56	0.19	0.10	0.18	0.16	0.15	$2.12	$3.33	$5.31	3.78	5.93	9.44
NEXO	$1.28	0.03	0.30	0.29	0.16	0.19	$3.78	$7.45	$9.46	2.95	5.80	7.37
FLR	$0.02	0.17	0.12	0.35	0.19	0.19	$0.07	$0.12	$0.18	3.07	4.94	7.67
XDC	$0.07	0.01	0.52	0.18	0.19	0.25	$0.17	$0.36	$0.42	2.27	4.89	5.69
FTM	$0.70	0.03	0.39	0.28	0.19	0.23	$1.74	$3.52	$4.36	2.50	5.05	6.25
MKR	$1,843.44	0.10	0.30	0.21	0.19	0.21	$5,077.18	$9,443.94	$12,692.94	2.75	5.12	6.89
ADA	$0.85	0.02	0.40	0.31	0.19	0.24	$2.05	$4.13	$5.11	2.42	4.89	6.04
QNT	$102.55	0.12	0.28	0.24	0.19	0.21	$278.46	$507.64	$696.14	2.72	4.95	6.79
GNO	$157.58	0.13	0.12	0.45	0.19	0.19	$482.11	$796.19	$1,205.27	3.06	5.05	7.65
TRB	$33.99	0.35	0.00	0.20	0.21	0.21	$90.39	$150.66	$225.98	2.66	4.43	6.65
HBAR	$0.22	0.03	0.50	0.23	0.21	0.26	$0.48	$0.99	$1.20	2.15	4.45	5.38
KAS	$0.08	0.33	0.00	0.27	0.22	0.22	$0.20	$0.33	$0.50	2.61	4.36	6.53
W	$0.13	0.06	0.00	1.00	0.23	0.22	$0.35	$0.55	$0.86	2.58	4.11	6.46
LTC	$117.26	0.13	0.28	0.40	0.23	0.25	$272.59	$485.94	$681.49	2.32	4.14	5.81
DOGE	$0.26	0.01	0.62	0.19	0.23	0.30	$0.49	$1.07	$1.24	1.92	4.14	4.79
CRO	$0.20	0.10	0.42	0.28	0.23	0.27	$0.43	$0.82	$1.07	2.13	4.09	5.32
IOTA	$0.19	0.39	0.00	0.22	0.24	0.24	$0.45	$0.74	$1.12	2.38	3.97	5.96
GT	$16.94	0.01	0.70	0.20	0.25	0.33	$29.40	$63.76	$73.50	1.74	3.76	4.34
JASMY	$0.01	0.32	0.00	0.48	0.26	0.26	$0.03	$0.05	$0.07	2.21	3.69	5.53
ONDO	$0.93	0.42	0.02	0.28	0.27	0.27	$1.94	$3.24	$4.85	2.09	3.49	5.23
BCH	$585.52	0.11	0.54	0.29	0.27	0.32	$1,037.29	$2,034.79	$2,593.22	1.77	3.48	4.43
KLAY	$0.15	0.45	0.00	0.21	0.27	0.27	$0.31	$0.52	$0.78	2.12	3.54	5.30
TAO22974	$344.86	0.35	0.14	0.29	0.27	0.27	$723.40	$1,205.67	$1,808.51	2.10	3.50	5.24
XLM	$0.39	0.01	0.69	0.27	0.27	0.34	$0.66	$1.40	$1.64	1.67	3.55	4.17
AERO29270	$1.14	0.23	0.23	0.50	0.28	0.28	$2.30	$3.84	$5.76	2.02	3.36	5.04
AIOZ	$0.29	0.48	0.00	0.26	0.29	0.29	$0.58	$0.96	$1.44	1.96	3.27	4.91
RON14101	$0.49	0.47	0.00	0.34	0.30	0.30	$0.92	$1.54	$2.31	1.89	3.15	4.72
DYDX	$0.62	0.38	0.00	0.58	0.31	0.31	$1.15	$1.91	$2.87	1.85	3.09	4.64
XRP	$2.93	0.00	0.89	0.20	0.31	0.41	$4.10	$9.02	$10.25	1.40	3.08	3.50
DIA	$0.56	0.49	0.00	0.35	0.31	0.31	$1.02	$1.70	$2.55	1.82	3.03	4.54
LINK	$22.49	0.12	0.54	0.45	0.31	0.36	$35.59	$67.88	$88.98	1.58	3.02	3.96
HNT	$2.54	0.51	0.00	0.28	0.31	0.31	$4.64	$7.73	$11.60	1.83	3.04	4.56
AR	$5.94	0.54	0.00	0.26	0.32	0.32	$10.42	$17.37	$26.06	1.75	2.92	4.38
ENS	$21.48	0.39	0.23	0.31	0.32	0.32	$37.90	$63.17	$94.75	1.76	2.94	4.41
FORTH	$2.71	0.48	0.00	0.50	0.34	0.34	$4.56	$7.60	$11.40	1.68	2.80	4.21
TRX	$0.34	0.09	0.87	0.23	0.35	0.44	$0.45	$0.93	$1.12	1.30	2.71	3.26
CFX	$0.15	0.58	0.00	0.30	0.35	0.35	$0.24	$0.39	$0.59	1.62	2.70	4.05
EGLD	$13.74	0.67	0.00	0.22	0.38	0.38	$20.54	$34.23	$51.35	1.50	2.49	3.74
EGLD	$13.74	0.67	0.00	0.22	0.38	0.38	$20.54	$34.23	$51.35	1.50	2.49	3.74
OSMO	$0.16	0.59	0.00	0.48	0.39	0.39	$0.23	$0.38	$0.56	1.45	2.41	3.62
BTC	$122,882.80	0.10	0.84	0.45	0.39	0.48	$147,097.11	$296,070.70	$367,742.77	1.20	2.41	2.99
SOL	$225.52	0.20	0.69	0.41	0.39	0.44	$290.59	$551.66	$726.47	1.29	2.45	3.22
ICP	$4.52	0.60	0.00	0.46	0.39	0.39	$6.54	$10.90	$16.36	1.45	2.41	3.62
ETH	$4,657.87	0.15	0.70	0.59	0.40	0.46	$5,728.17	$10,953.44	$14,320.43	1.23	2.35	3.07
AVAX	$29.17	0.70	0.00	0.30	0.41	0.41	$40.65	$67.76	$101.64	1.39	2.32	3.48
APT21794	$5.33	0.68	0.00	0.45	0.43	0.43	$7.05	$11.74	$17.62	1.32	2.20	3.31
SUI20947	$3.54	0.41	0.60	0.32	0.45	0.45	$4.48	$7.47	$11.20	1.27	2.11	3.16
BNB	$1,306.85	0.13	0.82	0.69	0.45	0.53	$1,418.21	$2,760.71	$3,545.52	1.09	2.11	2.71
AXS	$2.23	0.83	0.00	0.28	0.47	0.47	$2.71	$4.51	$6.76	1.21	2.02	3.03
FLOW	$0.37	0.69	0.00	0.63	0.47	0.47	$0.45	$0.75	$1.12	1.21	2.02	3.03
NEAR	$2.98	0.82	0.00	0.41	0.49	0.49	$3.44	$5.74	$8.61	1.16	1.93	2.89
DOT	$4.27	0.91	0.00	0.29	0.51	0.51	$4.74	$7.90	$11.85	1.11	1.85	2.78
IMX10603	$0.75	0.86	0.00	0.50	0.53	0.53	$0.81	$1.34	$2.01	1.08	1.80	2.70
AAVE	$286.10	0.66	0.51	0.30	0.54	0.54	$301.96	$503.27	$754.91	1.06	1.76	2.64
AKT	$1.04	1.00	0.00	0.23	0.55	0.55	$1.08	$1.81	$2.71	1.04	1.74	2.61
INJ	$12.79	1.00	0.06	0.24	0.56	0.56	$12.95	$21.59	$32.38	1.01	1.69	2.53
PENDLE	$5.06	0.66	0.70	0.40	0.62	0.62	$4.67	$7.79	$11.68	0.92	1.54	2.31
MNT27075	$2.30	0.66	0.96	0.90	0.80	0.80	$1.64	$2.73	$4.09	0.71	1.19	1.78

Cryptocurrency

Latest Price

Regression Risk

TWAP Risk

SMA Risk

Weighted Risk (Bull)

Weighted Risk (Adj)

Base Peak

Bull Peak

Moon Boy Peak

Base Reward

Bull Reward

Moon Reward

UNI7083

$0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

$0.04

$0.06

$0.10

242.51

392.15

606.28

COMP5692

$0.00

0.00

0.02

0.00

$0.00

119.03

193.48

297.59

STRK

$0.02

0.00

0.10

0.02

$0.51

$0.83

$1.28

28.33

46.14

70.82

MATIC

$0.22

0.02

0.00

0.15

0.04

$3.30

$5.11

$8.26

15.26

23.60

38.15

ETC

$19.56

0.04

0.00

0.11

0.04

$294.05

$433.68

$735.12

15.04

22.18

37.59

EOS

$0.41

0.03

0.00

0.13

0.04

0.03

$6.65

$10.15

$16.63

16.36

24.95

40.89

ARB11841

$0.00

0.00

0.22

0.05

$0.01

$0.02

$0.04

12.61

20.39

31.51

VET

$0.02

0.02

0.00

0.17

0.05

0.04

$0.31

$0.48

$0.78

13.56

21.08

33.90

LRC

$0.09

0.03

0.00

0.17

0.05

$1.06

$1.63

$2.66

12.46

19.06

31.16

THETA

$0.75

0.02

0.00

0.22

0.05

$8.33

$13.07

$20.82

11.11

17.44

27.77

STX4847

$0.00

0.00

0.23

0.05

$0.04

$0.06

$0.09

12.51

20.30

31.28

ALGO

$0.22

0.01

0.00

0.25

0.06

0.05

$2.40

$3.85

$6.00

10.71

17.18

26.79

FIL

$2.35

0.03

0.00

0.19

0.06

0.05

$26.22

$40.23

$65.56

11.16

17.12

27.89

$0.73

0.05

0.00

0.26

0.07

$6.08

$9.32

$15.21

8.35

12.79

20.87

LPT

$6.45

0.06

0.00

0.18

0.07

0.06

$62.61

$92.89

$156.53

9.71

14.41

24.28

MANA

$0.33

0.04

0.00

0.27

0.07

$2.84

$4.40

$7.10

8.51

13.18

21.27

NEO

$6.15

0.06

0.00

0.23

0.07

$52.64

$79.47

$131.60

8.55

12.91

21.38

GRT6719

$0.45

0.10

0.00

0.13

0.08

0.07

$3.83

$5.43

$9.58

8.43

11.96

21.09

ZRX

$0.25

0.05

0.00

0.28

0.08

$1.87

$2.87

$4.68

7.54

11.55

18.84

WLD

$1.25

0.09

0.00

0.22

0.09

0.08

$8.93

$13.12

$22.31

7.17

10.54

17.92

XTZ

$0.69

0.08

0.00

0.32

0.10

0.09

$4.22

$6.37

$10.54

6.11

9.24

15.28

BSV

$27.68

0.16

0.00

0.20

0.12

0.10

$156.76

$222.28

$391.89

5.66

8.03

14.16

FET

$0.57

0.07

0.15

0.21

0.12

0.13

$2.50

$4.47

$6.26

4.40

7.86

11.00

SAND

$0.28

0.17

0.00

0.18

0.12

0.10

$1.56

$2.19

$3.90

5.62

7.88

14.04

RUNE

$1.16

0.16

0.00

0.23

0.13

0.11

$6.10

$8.71

$15.25

5.26

7.51

13.14

GALA

$0.02

0.20

0.00

0.16

0.13

0.11

$0.08

$0.12

$0.21

5.25

7.28

13.13

CKB

$0.00

0.20

0.00

0.18

0.13

0.11

$0.02

$0.03

$0.05

5.05

7.04

12.62

ATOM

$4.15

0.13

0.00

0.32

0.13

0.11

$20.58

$30.21

$51.44

4.96

7.28

12.40

ENA

$0.59

0.07

0.11

0.36

0.14

0.15

$2.32

$3.95

$5.79

3.92

6.68

9.80

TON11419

$1.32

0.11

0.00

0.42

0.14

0.13

$5.88

$8.83

$14.70

4.46

6.70

11.15

SEI

$0.30

0.19

0.00

0.29

0.15

0.13

$1.27

$1.82

$3.19

4.32

6.17

10.79

$0.18

0.18

0.00

0.37

0.16

0.14

$0.70

$1.02

$1.76

4.01

5.85

10.03

APE18876

$0.56

0.19

0.10

0.18

0.16

0.15

$2.12

$3.33

$5.31

3.78

5.93

9.44

NEXO

$1.28

0.03

0.30

0.29

0.16

0.19

$3.78

$7.45

$9.46

2.95

5.80

7.37

FLR

$0.02

0.17

0.12

0.35

0.19

$0.07

$0.12

$0.18

3.07

4.94

7.67

XDC

$0.07

0.01

0.52

0.18

0.19

0.25

$0.17

$0.36

$0.42

2.27

4.89

5.69

FTM

$0.70

0.03

0.39

0.28

0.19

0.23

$1.74

$3.52

$4.36

2.50

5.05

6.25

MKR

$1,843.44

0.10

0.30

0.21

0.19

0.21

$5,077.18

$9,443.94

$12,692.94

2.75

5.12

6.89

ADA

$0.85

0.02

0.40

0.31

0.19

0.24

$2.05

$4.13

$5.11

2.42

4.89

6.04

QNT

$102.55

0.12

0.28

0.24

0.19

0.21

$278.46

$507.64

$696.14

2.72

4.95

6.79

GNO

$157.58

0.13

0.12

0.45

0.19

$482.11

$796.19

$1,205.27

3.06

5.05

7.65

TRB

$33.99

0.35

0.00

0.20

0.21

$90.39

$150.66

$225.98

2.66

4.43

6.65

HBAR

$0.22

0.03

0.50

0.23

0.21

0.26

$0.48

$0.99

$1.20

2.15

4.45

5.38

KAS

$0.08

0.33

0.00

0.27

0.22

$0.20

$0.33

$0.50

2.61

4.36

6.53

$0.13

0.06

0.00

1.00

0.23

0.22

$0.35

$0.55

$0.86

2.58

4.11

6.46

LTC

$117.26

0.13

0.28

0.40

0.23

0.25

$272.59

$485.94

$681.49

2.32

4.14

5.81

DOGE

$0.26

0.01

0.62

0.19

0.23

0.30

$0.49

$1.07

$1.24

1.92

4.14

4.79

CRO

$0.20

0.10

0.42

0.28

0.23

0.27

$0.43

$0.82

$1.07

2.13

4.09

5.32

IOTA

$0.19

0.39

0.00

0.22

0.24

$0.45

$0.74

$1.12

2.38

3.97

5.96

$16.94

0.01

0.70

0.20

0.25

0.33

$29.40

$63.76

$73.50

1.74

3.76

4.34

JASMY

$0.01

0.32

0.00

0.48

0.26

$0.03

$0.05

$0.07

2.21

3.69

5.53

ONDO

$0.93

0.42

0.02

0.28

0.27

$1.94

$3.24

$4.85

2.09

3.49

5.23

BCH

$585.52

0.11

0.54

0.29

0.27

0.32

$1,037.29

$2,034.79

$2,593.22

1.77

3.48

4.43

KLAY

$0.15

0.45

0.00

0.21

0.27

$0.31

$0.52

$0.78

2.12

3.54

5.30

TAO22974

$344.86

0.35

0.14

0.29

0.27

$723.40

$1,205.67

$1,808.51

2.10

3.50

5.24

XLM

$0.39

0.01

0.69

0.27

0.34

$0.66

$1.40

$1.64

1.67

3.55

4.17

AERO29270

$1.14

0.23

0.50

0.28

$2.30

$3.84

$5.76

2.02

3.36

5.04

AIOZ

$0.29

0.48

0.00

0.26

0.29

$0.58

$0.96

$1.44

1.96

3.27

4.91

RON14101

$0.49

0.47

0.00

0.34

0.30

$0.92

$1.54

$2.31

1.89

3.15

4.72

DYDX

$0.62

0.38

0.00

0.58

0.31

$1.15

$1.91

$2.87

1.85

3.09

4.64

XRP

$2.93

0.00

0.89

0.20

0.31

0.41

$4.10

$9.02

$10.25

1.40

3.08

3.50

DIA

$0.56

0.49

0.00

0.35

0.31

$1.02

$1.70

$2.55

1.82

3.03

4.54

LINK

$22.49

0.12

0.54

0.45

0.31

0.36

$35.59

$67.88

$88.98

1.58

3.02

3.96

HNT

$2.54

0.51

0.00

0.28

0.31

$4.64

$7.73

$11.60

1.83

3.04

4.56

$5.94

0.54

0.00

0.26

0.32

$10.42

$17.37

$26.06

1.75

2.92

4.38

ENS

$21.48

0.39

0.23

0.31

0.32

$37.90

$63.17

$94.75

1.76

2.94

4.41

FORTH

$2.71

0.48

0.00

0.50

0.34

$4.56

$7.60

$11.40

1.68

2.80

4.21

TRX

$0.34

0.09

0.87

0.23

0.35

0.44

$0.45

$0.93

$1.12

1.30

2.71

3.26

CFX

$0.15

0.58

0.00

0.30

0.35

$0.24

$0.39

$0.59

1.62

2.70

4.05

EGLD

$13.74

0.67

0.00

0.22

0.38

$20.54

$34.23

$51.35

1.50

2.49

3.74

EGLD

$13.74

0.67

0.00

0.22

0.38

$20.54

$34.23

$51.35

1.50

2.49

3.74

OSMO

$0.16

0.59

0.00

0.48

0.39

$0.23

$0.38

$0.56

1.45

2.41

3.62

BTC

$122,882.80

0.10

0.84

0.45

0.39

0.48

$147,097.11

$296,070.70

$367,742.77

1.20

2.41

2.99

SOL

$225.52

0.20

0.69

0.41

0.39

0.44

$290.59

$551.66

$726.47

1.29

2.45

3.22

ICP

$4.52

0.60

0.00

0.46

0.39

$6.54

$10.90

$16.36

1.45

2.41

3.62

ETH

$4,657.87

0.15

0.70

0.59

0.40

0.46

$5,728.17

$10,953.44

$14,320.43

1.23

2.35

3.07

AVAX

$29.17

0.70

0.00

0.30

0.41

$40.65

$67.76

$101.64

1.39

2.32

3.48

APT21794

$5.33

0.68

0.00

0.45

0.43

$7.05

$11.74

$17.62

1.32

2.20

3.31

SUI20947

$3.54

0.41

0.60

0.32

0.45

$4.48

$7.47

$11.20

1.27

2.11

3.16

BNB

$1,306.85

0.13

0.82

0.69

0.45

0.53

$1,418.21

$2,760.71

$3,545.52

1.09

2.11

2.71

AXS

$2.23

0.83

0.00

0.28

0.47

$2.71

$4.51

$6.76

1.21

2.02

3.03

FLOW

$0.37

0.69

0.00

0.63

0.47

$0.45

$0.75

$1.12

1.21

2.02

3.03

NEAR

$2.98

0.82

0.00

0.41

0.49

$3.44

$5.74

$8.61

1.16

1.93

2.89

DOT

$4.27

0.91

0.00

0.29

0.51

$4.74

$7.90

$11.85

1.11

1.85

2.78

IMX10603

$0.75

0.86

0.00

0.50

0.53

$0.81

$1.34

$2.01

1.08

1.80

2.70

AAVE

$286.10

0.66

0.51

0.30

0.54

$301.96

$503.27

$754.91

1.06

1.76

2.64

AKT

$1.04

1.00

0.00

0.23

0.55

$1.08

$1.81

$2.71

1.04

1.74

2.61

INJ

$12.79

1.00

0.06

0.24

0.56

$12.95

$21.59

$32.38

1.01

1.69

2.53

PENDLE

$5.06

0.66

0.70

0.40

0.62

$4.67

$7.79

$11.68

0.92

1.54

2.31

MNT27075

$2.30

0.66

0.96

0.90

0.80

$1.64

$2.73

$4.09

0.71

1.19

1.78

Methodology (TL;DR)

We estimate upside “peaks” for three scenarios—Base, Bull, and Moon Boy—by dividing today’s price by a composite risk score. Lower risk → higher peak. The composite risk blends three independent risk measures: a regression deviation, a TWAP divergence, and a 20-week SMA distance.

Risk metrics

Regression Risk: Fit a 4th-order polynomial trend to log(price) over the full history, then compute the proportional deviation (Close − Trend) / Trend. We scale to [0,1], and apply a mild time ramp to tilt weight toward recent action.
TWAP Risk: TWAP is the expanding mean of price. We take the positive divergence (Close − TWAP) / Close, clip at 0, and rescale to [0,1]. It’s a simple read on how extended price is vs. its path-of-travel.
SMA Risk: Use a 20-week (~140 trading days) SMA. Combine linear distance (Close − SMA) and proportional distance (Close − SMA)/SMA (each normalized), then re-normalize the 50/50 blend.

Weighting logic

We form a composite risk as a weighted sum of the three metrics:

Conservative mix (Bull):
  Reg 0.50   TWAP 0.30   SMA 0.20

Adjusted mix (used for Base & Moon Boy when Regression Risk < 0.20):
  Increase TWAP weight by +40% and decrease Regression by −20%, then re-normalize to 1.0
  (SMA unchanged)

Scenario definitions

Base Peak: 0.6 × 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_adjusted
Bull Peak: 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_conservative (original bull formula)
Moon Boy Peak: 1.5 × 0.95 × Price / CompositeRisk_adjusted

For each scenario we also compute a Reward multiple = Peak / Price.

Disclaimer

This is a research tool, not financial advice.